Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Whole-Genome Analysis Reveals That Active Heat Shock Factor Binding Sites Are Mostly Associated with Non-Heat Shock Genes in Drosophila melanogaster

During heat shock (HS) and other stresses, HS gene transcription in eukaryotes is up-regulated by the transcription factor heat shock factor (HSF). While the identities of the major HS genes have been known for more than 30 years, it has been suspected that HSF binds to numerous other genes and potentially regulates their transcription. In this study, we have used a chromatin immunoprecipitation and microarray (ChIP-chip) approach to identify 434 regions in the Drosophila genome that are bound by HSF. We have also performed a transcript analysis of heat shocked Kc167 cells and third instar larvae and compared them to HSF binding sites. The heat-induced transcription profiles were quite different between cells and larvae and surprisingly only about 10% of the genes associated with HSF binding sites show changed transcription. There were also genes that showed changes in transcript levels that did not appear to correlate with HSF binding sites. Analysis of the locations of the HSF binding sites revealed that 57% were contained within genes with approximately 2/3rds of these sites being in introns. We also found that the insulator protein, BEAF, has enriched binding prior to HS to promoters of genes that are bound by HSF upon HS but that are not transcriptionally induced during HS. When the genes associated with HSF binding sites in promoters were analyzed for gene ontology terms, categories such as stress response and transferase activity were enriched whereas analysis of genes having HSF binding sites in introns identified those categories plus ones related to developmental processes and reproduction. These results suggest that Drosophila HSF may be regulating many genes besides the known HS genes and that some of these genes may be regulated during non-stress conditions

The effect of cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption and fruit and vegetable consumption on IVF outcomes: A review and presentation of original data

Background - Lifestyle factors including cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption and nutritional habits impact on health, wellness, and the risk of chronic diseases. In the areas of in-vitro fertilization (IVF) and pregnancy, lifestyle factors influence oocyte production, fertilization rates, pregnancy and pregnancy loss, while chronic, low-grade oxidative stress may underlie poor outcomes for some IVF cases. Methods - Here, we review the current literature and present some original, previously unpublished data, obtained from couples attending the PIVET Medical Centre in Western Australia. Results - During the study, 80 % of females and 70 % of male partners completed a 1-week diary documenting their smoking, alcohol and fruit and vegetable intake. The subsequent clinical outcomes of their IVF treatment such as quantity of oocytes collected, fertilization rates, pregnancy and pregnancy loss were submitted to multiple regression analysis, in order to investigate the relationship between patients, treatment and the recorded lifestyle factors. Of significance, it was found that male smoking caused an increased risk of pregnancy loss (p = 0.029), while female smoking caused an adverse effect on ovarian reserve. Both alcohol consumption (β = 0.074, p < 0.001) and fruit and vegetable consumption (β = 0.034, p < 0.001) had positive effects on fertilization. Conclusion - Based on our results and the current literature, there is an important impact of lifestyle factors on IVF clinical outcomes. Currently, there are conflicting results regarding other lifestyle factors such as nutritional habits and alcohol consumption, but it is apparent that chronic oxidative stress induced by lifestyle factors and poor nutritional habits associate with a lower rate of IVF success