Nomogram predicting the probability of spontaneous stone passage in patients presenting with acute ureteric colic

Objectives: To develop a nomogram that could predict spontaneous stone passage (SSP) in patients presenting with acute ureteric colic who are suitable for conservative management. Patients and Methods: A 2517 patient dataset was utilised from an international multicentre cohort study (MIMIC, A Multi-centre Cohort Study Evaluating the role of Inflammatory Markers In Patients Presenting with Acute Ureteric Colic) of patients presenting with acute ureteric colic across 71 secondary care hospitals in the UK, Ireland, Australia, and New Zealand. Inclusion criteria mandated a non-contrast computed tomography of the kidneys, ureters, and bladder. SSP was defined as the ‘absence of the need for intervention’. The model was developed using logistic regression and backwards selection (to achieve lowest Akaike's information criterion) in a subset from 2009–2015 (n = 1728) and temporally validated on a subset from 2016–2017 (n = 789). Results: Of the 2517 patients, 1874 had SSP (74.5%). The mean (SD) age was 47 (14.7) years and 1892 were male (75.2%). At the end of the modelling process, gender: male (odds ratio [OR] 0.8, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64–1.01, P = 0.07), neutrophil count (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.00–1.06, P = 0.08), hydronephrosis (OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.59–1.05, P = 0.1), hydroureter (OR 1.3, 95% CI 0.97–1.75, P = 0.08), stone size >5–7 mm (OR 0.2, 95% CI 0.16–0.25, P 7 mm (OR 0.11, 95% CI 0.08–0.15, P < 0.001), middle ureter stone position (OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.43–0.81, P = 0.001), upper ureter stone position (OR 0.31, 95% CI 0.25–0.39, P < 0.001), medical expulsive therapy use (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.1–1.67, P = 0.001), oral nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) use (OR 1.3, 95% CI 0.99–1.71, P = 0.06), and rectal NSAID use (OR 1.17, 95% CI 0.9–1.53, P = 0.24) remained. The concordance-statistic (C-statistic) was 0.77 (95% CI 0.75–0.80) and a nomogram was developed based on these. Conclusion: The presented nomogram is available to use as an on-line calculator via www.BURSTurology.com and could allow clinicians and patients to make a more informed decision on pursuing conservative management vs early intervention

Factors associated with spontaneous stone passage in a contemporary cohort of patients presenting with acute ureteric colic: results from the Multi-centre cohort study evaluating the role of Inflammatory Markers In patients presenting with acute ureteric Colic (MIMIC) study

Objectives: To assess the relationship of white blood cell count (WBC) and other routinely collected inflammatory and clinical markers including stone size, stone position, and medical expulsive therapy use (MET), with spontaneous stone passage (SSP) in a large contemporary cohort of patients with acute ureteric colic, as there are conflicting data on the role of WBC and other inflammatory markers in SSP in patients with acute ureteric colic. Patients and methods: Multicentre retrospective cohort study coordinated by the British Urology Researchers in Surgical Training (BURST) Research Collaborative at 71 secondary care hospitals across four countries (UK, Republic of Ireland, Australia, and New Zealand). In all, 4170 patients presented with acute ureteric colic and a computed tomography confirmed single ureteric stone. Our primary outcome measure was SSP, as defined by the absence of need for intervention to assist stone passage (SP). Multivariable mixed effects logistic regression was used to explore the relationship between key patient factors and SSP. Results: In all, 2518 patients were discharged with conservative management and had further follow-up with a SSP rate of 74% (n = 1874/2518). Sepsis after discharge with conservative management was reported in 0.6% (n = 16/2518). On multivariable analysis neither WBC, neutrophils count, nor C-reactive protein (CRP) predicted SSP, with an adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 0.97 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.91–1.04, P = 0.38), 1.06 (95% CI 0.99–1.13, P = 0.1) and 1.00 (95% CI 0.99–1.00, P = 0.17), respectively. MET also did not predict SSP (adjusted OR 1.11, 95% CI 0.76–1.61). However, stone size and stone position were significant predictors. SSP for stones 7 mm. For stones in the upper ureter the SSP rate was 52% (95% CI 48–56), middle ureter was 70% (95% CI 64–76), and lower ureter was 83% (95% CI 81–85). Conclusion: In contrast to the previously published literature, we found that in patients with acute ureteric colic who are discharged with initial conservative management neither WBC, neutrophil count, nor CRP, helps determine the likelihood of SSP. We also found no overall benefit from the use of MET. Stone size and position are important predictors and our present findings represent the most comprehensive SP rates for each millimetre increase in stone size from a large contemporary cohort adjusting for key potential confounders. We anticipate that these data will aid clinicians managing patients with acute ureteric colic and help guide management decisions and the need for intervention

Nomogram predicting the probability of spontaneous stone passage in patients presenting with acute ureteric colic.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a nomogram that could predict spontaneous stone passage (SSP) in patients presenting with acute ureteric colic who are suitable for conservative management. SUBJECT/PATIENTS: A 2517 patient dataset was utilised from an international multi-centre cohort study (MIMIC, A Multi-centre Cohort Study Evaluating the role of Inflammatory Markers In Patients Presenting with Acute Ureteric Colic) of patients presenting with acute ureteric colic across 71 secondary care hospitals in the United Kingdom, Ireland, Australia, and New Zealand. Inclusion criteria mandated a non-contrast CT-KUB. METHODS: SSP was defined as the 'absence of the need for intervention'. The model was developed using logistic regression and backwards selection (to achieve lowest AIC) in a subset from 2009-2015 (n=1728) and temporally validated on a subset from 2016-2017 (n=789). RESULTS: Of the 2517 patients, 1874 had SSP (74.5%). Mean age (±[SD]) was 47 (±14.7) years and 1892 were male (75.2%). At the end of the modelling process, gender: male (OR 0.8, 95%CI 0.64-1.01, p=0.07), neutrophil count (OR 1.03, 95%CI 1.00-1.06, p = 0.08), hydronephrosis (OR 0.79, 95%CI 0.59-1.05, p=0.1), hydroureter (OR 1.3, 95%CI 0.97-1.75, p =0.08), stone size >5-7mm (OR 0.2, 95%CI 0.16-0.25, p7mm (OR 0.11, 95%CI 0.08-0.15, p<0.001), middle ureter stone position (OR 0.59, 95%CI 0.43-0.81, p=0.001), upper ureter stone position (OR 0.31, 95%CI 0.25-0.39, p<0.001) ), medical expulsive therapy use (OR 1.36, 95%CI 1.1 - 1.67, p = 0.001), oral NSAID use (OR 1.3, 95%CI 0.99 - 1.71, p=0.06), and rectal NSAID use (OR1.17, 95%CI 0.9 - 1.53, p=0.24) remained. Concordance-statistic (C-statistic) was 0.77 (95%CI 0.75 - 0.80) and a nomogram was developed based on these. CONCLUSION: The presented nomogram is available to use as an online calculator via www.BURSTurology.com and could allow clinicians and patients to make a more informed decision on pursuing conservative management versus early intervention