Evaluating risk factor assumptions: a simulation-based approach

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Microsimulation models are an important tool for estimating the comparative effectiveness of interventions through prediction of individual-level disease outcomes for a hypothetical population. To estimate the effectiveness of interventions targeted toward high risk groups, the mechanism by which risk factors influence the natural history of disease must be specified. We propose a method for evaluating these risk factor assumptions as part of model-building.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used simulation studies to examine the impact of risk factor assumptions on the relative rate (RR) of colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality for a cohort with a risk factor compared to a cohort without the risk factor using an extension of the CRC-SPIN model for colorectal cancer. We also compared the impact of changing age at initiation of screening colonoscopy for different risk mechanisms.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Across CRC-specific risk factor mechanisms, the RR of CRC incidence and mortality decreased (towards one) with increasing age. The rate of change in RRs across age groups depended on both the risk factor mechanism and the strength of the risk factor effect. Increased non-CRC mortality attenuated the effect of CRC-specific risk factors on the RR of CRC when both were present. For each risk factor mechanism, earlier initiation of screening resulted in more life years gained, though the magnitude of life years gained varied across risk mechanisms.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Simulation studies can provide insight into both the effect of risk factor assumptions on model predictions and the type of data needed to calibrate risk factor models.</p

Early Initiation of Colorectal Cancer Screening in Individuals with Affected First-degree Relatives

BACKGROUND: Several guidelines recommend initiating colorectal cancer screening at age 40 for individuals with affected first-degree relatives, yet little evidence exists describing how often these individuals receive screening procedures. OBJECTIVES: To determine the proportion of individuals in whom early initiation of colorectal cancer screening might be indicated and whether screening disparities exist. DESIGN: Population-based Supplemental Cancer Control Module to the 2000 National Health Interview Survey. PARTICIPANTS: Respondents, 5,564, aged 40 to 49 years were included within the analysis. MEASUREMENTS: Patient self-report of sigmoidoscopy, colonoscopy, or fecal occult blood test. RESULTS: Overall, 279 respondents (5.4%: 95% C.I., 4.7, 6.2) reported having a first-degree relative affected with colorectal cancer. For individuals with a positive family history, 67 whites (27.9%: 95% C.I., 21.1, 34.5) and 3 African American (9.3%: 95% C.I., 1.7, 37.9) had undergone an endoscopic procedure within the previous 10 years (P-value = .03). After adjusting for age, family history, gender, educational level, insurance status, and usual source of care, whites were more likely to be current with early initiation endoscopic screening recommendations than African Americans (OR = 1.38: 95% C.I., 1.01, 1.87). Having an affected first-degree relative with colorectal cancer appeared to have a stronger impact on endoscopic screening for whites (OR = 3.21: 95% C.I., 2.31, 4.46) than for African Americans (OR = 1.05: 95% C.I., 0.15, 7.21). CONCLUSIONS: White participants with a family history are more likely to have endoscopic procedures beginning before age 50 than African Americans

Genome-Wide Local Ancestry Approach Identifies Genes and Variants Associated with Chemotherapeutic Susceptibility in African Americans

Chemotherapeutic agents are used in the treatment of many cancers, yet variable resistance and toxicities among individuals limit successful outcomes. Several studies have indicated outcome differences associated with ancestry among patients with various cancer types. Using both traditional SNP-based and newly developed gene-based genome-wide approaches, we investigated the genetics of chemotherapeutic susceptibility in lymphoblastoid cell lines derived from 83 African Americans, a population for which there is a disparity in the number of genome-wide studies performed. To account for population structure in this admixed population, we incorporated local ancestry information into our association model. We tested over 2 million SNPs and identified 325, 176, 240, and 190 SNPs that were suggestively associated with cytarabine-, 5′-deoxyfluorouridine (5′-DFUR)-, carboplatin-, and cisplatin-induced cytotoxicity, respectively (p≤10−4). Importantly, some of these variants are found only in populations of African descent. We also show that cisplatin-susceptibility SNPs are enriched for carboplatin-susceptibility SNPs. Using a gene-based genome-wide association approach, we identified 26, 11, 20, and 41 suggestive candidate genes for association with cytarabine-, 5′-DFUR-, carboplatin-, and cisplatin-induced cytotoxicity, respectively (p≤10−3). Fourteen of these genes showed evidence of association with their respective chemotherapeutic phenotypes in the Yoruba from Ibadan, Nigeria (p<0.05), including TP53I11, COPS5 and GAS8, which are known to be involved in tumorigenesis. Although our results require further study, we have identified variants and genes associated with chemotherapeutic susceptibility in African Americans by using an approach that incorporates local ancestry information

Longitudinal, population-based study of racial/ethnic differences in colorectal cancer survival: impact of neighborhood socioeconomic status, treatment and comorbidity

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Colorectal cancer, if detected early, has greater than 90% 5-year survival. However, survival has been shown to vary across racial/ethnic groups in the United States, despite the availability of early detection methods.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This study evaluated the joint effects of sociodemographic factors, tumor characteristics, census-based socioeconomic status (SES), treatment, and comorbidities on survival after colorectal cancer among and within racial/ethnic groups, using the SEER-Medicare database for patients diagnosed in 1992–1996, and followed through 1999.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Unadjusted colorectal cancer-specific mortality rates were higher among Blacks and Hispanic males than whites (relative rates (95% confidence intervals) = 1.34 (1.26–1.42) and 1.16 (1.04–1.29), respectively), and lower among Japanese (0.78 (0.70–0.88)). These patterns were evident for all-cause mortality, although the magnitude of the disparity was larger for colorectal cancer mortality. Adjustment for stage accounted for the higher rate among Hispanic males and most of the lower rate among Japanese. Among Blacks, stage and SES accounted for about half of the higher rate relative to Whites, and within stage III colon and stages II/III rectal cancer, SES completely accounted for the small differentials in survival between Blacks and Whites. Comorbidity did not appear to explain the Black-White differentials in colorectal-specific nor all-cause mortality, beyond stage, and treatment (surgery, radiation, chemotherapy) explained a very small proportion of the Black-White difference. The fully-adjusted relative mortality rates comparing Blacks to Whites was 1.14 (1.09–1.20) for all-cause mortality and 1.21 (1.14–1.29) for colorectal cancer specific mortality. The sociodemographic, tumor, and treatment characteristics also had different impacts on mortality within racial/ethnic groups.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In this comprehensive analysis, race/ethnic-specific models revealed differential effects of covariates on survival after colorectal cancer within each group, suggesting that different strategies may be necessary to improve survival in each group. Among Blacks, half of the differential in survival after colorectal cancer was primarily attributable to stage and SES, but differences in survival between Blacks and Whites remain unexplained with the data available in this comprehensive, population-based, analysis.</p