Association between circulating GDF-15 and cardio-renal outcomes and effect of canagliflozin: results from the CANVAS trial

Background Studies have suggested that sodium glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors exert anti-inflammatory effects. We examined the association of baseline growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), a marker of inflammation and cellular injury, with cardiovascular events, hospitalization for heart failure (HF), and kidney outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes in the CANVAS (Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment Study) and determined the effect of the sodium glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitor canagliflozin on circulating GDF-15. Methods and Results The CANVAS trial randomized 4330 people with type 2 diabetes at high cardiovascular risk to canagliflozin or placebo. The association between baseline GDF-15 and cardiovascular (non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, cardiovascular death), HF, and kidney (40% estimated glomerular filtration rate decline, end-stage kidney disease, renal death) outcomes was assessed using multivariable adjusted Cox regression models. During median follow-up of 6.1 years (N=3549 participants with available samples), 555 cardiovascular, 129 HF, and 137 kidney outcomes occurred. Each doubling in baseline GDF-15 was significantly associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular (hazard ratio [HR], 1.2; 95% CI, 1.0‒1.3), HF (HR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.2‒2.0) and kidney (HR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.2‒2.0) outcomes. Baseline GDF-15 did not modify canagliflozin's effect on cardiovascular, HF, and kidney outcomes. Canaglifozin treatment modestly lowered GDF-15 compared with placebo; however, GDF-15 did not mediate the protective effect of canagliflozin on cardiovascular, HF, or kidney outcomes. Conclusions In patients with type 2 diabetes at high cardiovascular risk, higher GDF-15 levels were associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular, HF, and kidney outcomes. Canagliflozin modestly lowered GDF-15, but GDF-15 reduction did not mediate the protective effect of canagliflozin

Estimated Lifetime Cardiovascular, Kidney, and Mortality Benefits of Combination Treatment With SGLT2 Inhibitors, GLP-1 Receptor Agonists, and Nonsteroidal MRA Compared With Conventional Care in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes and Albuminuria

BACKGROUND: Sodium glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i), glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RA), and the nonsteroidal mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist (ns-MRA) finerenone all individually reduce cardiovascular, kidney, and mortality outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes and albuminuria. However, the lifetime benefits of combination therapy with these medicines are not known. METHODS: We used data from 2 SGLT2i trials (CANVAS [Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment] and CREDENCE [Canagliflozin and Renal Events in Diabetes with Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation]), 2 ns-MRA trials (FIDELIO-DKD [Finerenone in Reducing Kidney Failure and Disease Progression in Diabetic Kidney Disease] and FIGARO-DKD [Efficacy and Safety of Finerenone in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and the Clinical Diagnosis of Diabetic Kidney Disease]), and 8 GLP-1 RA trials to estimate the relative effects of combination therapy versus conventional care (renin-angiotensin system blockade and traditional risk factor control) on cardiovascular, kidney, and mortality outcomes. Using actuarial methods, we then estimated absolute risk reductions with combination SGLT2i, GLP-1 RA, and ns-MRA in patients with type 2 diabetes and at least moderately increased albuminuria (urinary albumin:creatinine ratio ≥30 mg/g) by applying estimated combination treatment effects to participants receiving conventional care in CANVAS and CREDENCE. RESULTS: Compared with conventional care, the combination of SGLT2i, GLP-1 RA, and ns-MRA was associated with a hazard ratio of 0.65 (95% CI, 0.55–0.76) for major adverse cardiovascular events (nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death). The corresponding estimated absolute risk reduction over 3 years was 4.4% (95% CI, 3.0–5.7), with a number needed to treat of 23 (95% CI, 18–33). For a 50-year-old patient commencing combination therapy, estimated major adverse cardiovascular event–free survival was 21.1 years compared with 17.9 years for conventional care (3.2 years gained [95% CI, 2.1–4.3]). There were also projected gains in survival free from hospitalized heart failure (3.2 years [95% CI, 2.4–4.0]), chronic kidney disease progression (5.5 years [95% CI, 4.0–6.7]), cardiovascular death (2.2 years [95% CI, 1.2–3.0]), and all-cause death (2.4 years [95% CI, 1.4–3.4]). Attenuated but clinically relevant gains in event-free survival were observed in analyses assuming 50% additive effects of combination therapy, including for major adverse cardiovascular events (2.4 years [95% CI, 1.1–3.5]), chronic kidney disease progression (4.5 years [95% CI, 2.8–5.9]), and all-cause death (1.8 years [95% CI, 0.7–2.8]). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with type 2 diabetes and at least moderately increased albuminuria, combination treatment of SGLT2i, GLP-1 RA, and ns-MRA has the potential to afford relevant gains in cardiovascular and kidney event-free and overall survival

Interleukin-6 and Cardiovascular and Kidney Outcomes in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes: New Insights From CANVAS

OBJECTIVE The inflammatory cytokine interleukin-6 (IL-6) is associated with cardiovascular (CV) and kidney outcomes in various populations. However, data in patients with type 2 diabetes are limited. We assessed the association of IL-6 with CV and kidney outcomes in the Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment Study (CANVAS) and determined the effect of canagliflozin on IL-6. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Patients with type 2 diabetes at high CV risk were randomly assigned to canagliflozin or placebo. Plasma IL-6 was measured at baseline and years 1, 3, and 6. The composite CV outcome was nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or CV death; the composite kidney outcome was sustained ≥40% estimated glomerular filtration rate decline, end-stage kidney disease, or kidney-related death. Multi-variable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the associations between IL-6 and the outcomes. The effect of canagliflozin on IL-6 over time was assessed with a repeated-measures mixed-effects model. RESULTS The geometric mean IL-6 at baseline, available in 3,503 (80.2%) participants, was 1.7 pg/mL. Each doubling of baseline IL-6 was associated with 14% (95% CI 4, 24) and 21% (95% CI 1, 45) increased risk of CV and kidney outcomes, respectively. Over 6 years, IL-6 increased by 5.8% (95% CI 3.4, 8.3) in the placebo group. Canagliflozin modestly attenuated the IL-6 increase (absolute percentage difference vs. placebo 4.4% [95% CI 1.3, 9.9; P = 0.01]). At year 1, each 25% lower level of IL-6 compared with baseline was associated with 7% (95% CI 1, 22) and 14% (95% CI 5, 22) lower risks for the CV and kidney outcome, respectively. CONCLUSIONS In patients with type 2 diabetes at high CV risk, baseline IL-6 and its 1-year change were associated with CV and kidney outcomes. The effect of IL-6–lowering therapy on CV, kidney, and safety outcomes remains to be tested

Effects of canagliflozin on anaemia in patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease: a post-hoc analysis from the CREDENCE trial

Background: Sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors might enhance erythropoiesis and increase red blood cell mass. We assessed the long-term effects of canagliflozin on anaemia-related outcomes. Methods: In a post-hoc analysis of the Canagliflozin and Renal Events in Diabetes with Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation (CREDENCE) trial, we included patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease who were randomly assigned to treatment with canagliflozin or placebo at 690 sites in 34 countries. We assessed the effects of canagliflozin versus matched placebo on haemoglobin and haematocrit using linear mixed-effects models. The primary outcome of this post-hoc analysis was a composite outcome of investigator-reported anaemia or treatment for anaemia, which was assessed using Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox regression models. All analyses were done by intention to treat. Findings: Between March 24, 2014, and May 5, 2017, 4401 participants were randomly assigned to receive canagliflozin (100 mg; n=2202) or placebo (n=2199). At baseline, mean haemoglobin concentration was 132·0 g/L (SD 17·7), 1599 (36%) of 4401 participants had anaemia (defined as haemoglobin <130 g/L in men or <120 g/L in women), and 33 (<1%) of 4401 participants used erythropoiesis-stimulating agents. During a median follow-up period of 2·6 years (IQR 2·1–3·1), mean haemoglobin concentration was 7·1 g/L (95% CI 6·4–7·8) higher and haematocrit was 2·4% (2·2–2·6) higher in the canagliflozin group than the placebo group. Overall, 573 of 4401 participants had either an investigator-reported anaemia event or initiation of treatment for anaemia: 358 (8%) of 4401 participants reported anaemia events, 343 (8%) initiated iron preparations, 141 (3%) initiated erythropoiesis-stimulating agents, and 114 (2%) received blood transfusion. The risk of the composite outcome of anaemia events or initiation of treatment for anaemia was lower in the canagliflozin group than the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·65, 95% CI 0·55–0·77; p<0·0001). Compared with the placebo group, participants in the canagliflozin group also had lower risks of anaemia events alone (0·58, 0·47–0·72; p<0·0001), initiation of iron preparations (0·64, 0·52–0·80; p<0·0001), and need for erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (0·65, 0·46–0·91; p=0·012). Interpretation: These data suggest that canagliflozin reduces the risk of anaemia-associated outcomes, including the need for erythropoiesis-stimulating agents, among patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease

Lunar exploration: opening a window into the history and evolution of the inner Solar System

The lunar geological record contains a rich archive of the history of the inner Solar System, including information relevant to understanding the origin and evolution of the Earth-Moon system, the geological evolution of rocky planets, and our local cosmic environment. This paper provides a brief review of lunar exploration to-date, and describes how future exploration initiatives will further advance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the Moon, the Earth-Moon system, and of the Solar System more generally. It is concluded that further advances will require the placing of new scientific instruments on, and the return of additional samples from, the lunar surface. Some of these scientific objectives can be achieved robotically, for example by in situ geochemical and geophysical measurements and through carefully targeted sample return missions. However, in the longer term, we argue that lunar science would greatly benefit from renewed human operations on the surface of the Moon, such as would be facilitated by implementing the recently proposed Global Exploration Roadmap

Effects of canagliflozin on hyperkalaemia and serum potassium in people with diabetes and chronic kidney disease: insights from the CREDENCE trial

Hyperkalaemia is a common complication of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and limits the optimal use of agents that block the renin-angiotensin aldosterone system (RAAS), particularly in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). In patients with CKD, sodium glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors provide cardiorenal protection, but whether they affect the risk of hyperkalaemia remains uncertain. We sought to assess the effect of canagliflozin on hyperkalaemia and other potassium-related outcomes in people with T2DM and CKD by conducting a post-hoc analysis of the CREDENCE trial. The CREDENCE trial randomized 4401 participants with T2DM and CKD to the SGLT2 inhibitor canagliflozin or matching placebo. In this post-hoc analysis using an intention-to-treat approach, we assessed the effect of canagliflozin on a composite outcome of time to either investigator-reported hyperkalaemia or the initiation of potassium binders. We also analysed effects on central laboratory-determined hyper- and hypokalaemia (serum potassium ≥6.0 and &amp;lt;3.5 mmol/L, respectively) and change in serum potassium. At baseline the mean serum potassium in canagliflozin and placebo arms was 4.5 mmol/L; 4395 (99.9%) participants were receiving renin angiotensin system blockade. Canagliflozin reduced the risk of investigator-reported hyperkalaemia or initiation of potassium binders (HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.64–0.95, p=0.014; Figure 1). The incidence of laboratory-determined hyperkalaemia was similarly reduced (HR 0.77, 95% CI 0.61–0.98, p=0.031; Figure 2); the risk of hypokalaemia (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.71–1.20, p=0.53) was not increased. Mean serum potassium over time with canagliflozin was similar to that of placebo. Among patients treated with RAAS inhibitors, SGLT2 inhibition with canagliflozin may reduce the risk of hyperkalaemia in people with T2DM and CKD without increasing the risk of hypokalaemia

Coupling models of cattle and farms with models of badgers for predicting the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis (TB)

Bovine TB is a major problem for the agricultural industry in several countries. TB can be contracted and spread by species other than cattle and this can cause a problem for disease control. In the UK and Ireland, badgers are a recognised reservoir of infection and there has been substantial discussion about potential control strategies. We present a coupling of individual based models of bovine TB in badgers and cattle, which aims to capture the key details of the natural history of the disease and of both species at approximately county scale. The model is spatially explicit it follows a very large number of cattle and badgers on a different grid size for each species and includes also winter housing. We show that the model can replicate the reported dynamics of both cattle and badger populations as well as the increasing prevalence of the disease in cattle. Parameter space used as input in simulations was swept out using Latin hypercube sampling and sensitivity analysis to model outputs was conducted using mixed effect models. By exploring a large and computationally intensive parameter space we show that of the available control strategies it is the frequency of TB testing and whether or not winter housing is practised that have the most significant effects on the number of infected cattle, with the effect of winter housing becoming stronger as farm size increases. Whether badgers were culled or not explained about 5%, while the accuracy of the test employed to detect infected cattle explained less than 3% of the variance in the number of infected cattle