Multi-step Richardson-Romberg Extrapolation: Remarks on Variance Control and complexity

We propose a multi-step Richardson-Romberg extrapolation method for the computation of expectations $E f(X_{_T})$ of a diffusion $(X_t)_{t\in [0,T]}$ when the weak time discretization error induced by the Euler scheme admits an expansion at an order $R\ge 2$. The complexity of the estimator grows as $R^2$ (instead of $2^R$) and its variance is asymptotically controlled by considering some consistent Brownian increments in the underlying Euler schemes. Some Monte carlo simulations carried with path-dependent options (lookback, barriers) which support the conjecture that their weak time discretization error also admits an expansion (in a different scale). Then an appropriate Richardson-Romberg extrapolation seems to outperform the Euler scheme with Brownian bridge.Comment: 28 pages, \`a para\^itre dans Monte Carlo Methods and Applications Journa

Computational Methods for Complex Stochastic Systems: A Review of Some Alternatives to MCMC.

We consider analysis of complex stochastic models based upon partial information. MCMC and reversible jump MCMC are often the methods of choice for such problems, but in some situations they can be difficult to implement; and suffer from problems such as poor mixing, and the difficulty of diagnosing convergence. Here we review three alternatives to MCMC methods: importance sampling, the forward-backward algorithm, and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). We discuss how to design good proposal densities for importance sampling, show some of the range of models for which the forward-backward algorithm can be applied, and show how resampling ideas from SMC can be used to improve the efficiency of the other two methods. We demonstrate these methods on a range of examples, including estimating the transition density of a diffusion and of a discrete-state continuous-time Markov chain; inferring structure in population genetics; and segmenting genetic divergence data