105 research outputs found
An approach to estimating rockfish biomass based on larval production, with application to Sebastes jordani
An assessment of the total biomass of shortbelly rockfish (Sebastes jordani) off the central California coast is presented that is based on a spatially extensive but temporally restricted ichthyoplankton survey conducted during the 1991 spawning season. Contemporaneous samples of adults were obtained by trawl sampling in the study region. Daily larval production (7.56 Ă 1010 larvae/d) and the larval mortality rate (Z=0.11/d) during the cruise were estimated from a larval âcatch curve,â wherein the logarithm of total age-specific larval abundance was regressed against larval age. For this analysis, larval age compositions at each of the 150 sample sites were determined by examination of otolith microstructure from subsampled larvae (n=2203), which were weighted by the polygonal Sette-Ahlstrom area surrounding each station. Female population weight-specific fecundity was estimated through a life table analysis that incorporated sex-specific differences in adult growth rate, female maturity, fecundity, and natural mortality (M). The resulting statistic (102.17 larvae/g) was insensitive to errors in estimating M and to the pattern of recruitment. Together, the two analyses indicated that a total biomass equal to 1366 metric tons (t)/d of age-1+ shortbelly rockfish (sexes combined) was needed to account for the observed level of spawning output during the cruise. Given the long-term seasonal distribution of spawning activity in the study area, as elucidated from a retrospective examination of California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigation (CalCOFI) ichthyoplankton samples from 1952 to 1984, the âdailyâ total biomass was expanded to an annual total of 67,392 t. An attempt to account for all sources of error in the derivation of this estimate was made by application of the delta-method, which yielded a coefficient of variation of 19%. The relatively high precision of this larval production method, and the rapidity with which an absolute biomass estimate can be obtained, establishes that, for some species of rockfish (Sebastes spp.), it is an attractive alternative to traditional age-structured stock assessments
Bias in meta-analyses using HedgesĂąâŹâą d
The type of metric and weighting method used in meta-analysis can create bias and alter coverage of confidence intervals when the estimated effect size and its weight are correlated. Here, we investigate
bias associated with the common metric, HedgesĂąâŹâą d, under conditions common in ecological meta-analyses.
We simulated data from experiments, computed effect sizes and their variances, and performed meta-analyses applying three weighting schemes (inverse variance, sample size, and unweighted) for varying levels
of effect size, within-study replication, number of studies in the meta-analysis, and among-study variance.
Unweighted analyses, and those using weights based on sample size, were close to unbiased and yielded
coverages close to the nominal level of 0.95. In contrast, the inverse-variance weighting scheme led to bias
and low coverage, especially for meta-analyses based on studies with low replication. This bias arose
because of a correlation between the estimated effect and its weight when using the inverse-variance method.
In many cases, the sample size weighting scheme was most efficient, and, when not, the differences in efficiency among the three methods were relatively minor. Thus, if using HedgesĂąâŹâą d, we recom
Multi-Messenger Gravitational Wave Searches with Pulsar Timing Arrays: Application to 3C66B Using the NANOGrav 11-year Data Set
When galaxies merge, the supermassive black holes in their centers may form
binaries and, during the process of merger, emit low-frequency gravitational
radiation in the process. In this paper we consider the galaxy 3C66B, which was
used as the target of the first multi-messenger search for gravitational waves.
Due to the observed periodicities present in the photometric and astrometric
data of the source of the source, it has been theorized to contain a
supermassive black hole binary. Its apparent 1.05-year orbital period would
place the gravitational wave emission directly in the pulsar timing band. Since
the first pulsar timing array study of 3C66B, revised models of the source have
been published, and timing array sensitivities and techniques have improved
dramatically. With these advances, we further constrain the chirp mass of the
potential supermassive black hole binary in 3C66B to less than using data from the NANOGrav 11-year data set. This
upper limit provides a factor of 1.6 improvement over previous limits, and a
factor of 4.3 over the first search done. Nevertheless, the most recent orbital
model for the source is still consistent with our limit from pulsar timing
array data. In addition, we are able to quantify the improvement made by the
inclusion of source properties gleaned from electromagnetic data to `blind'
pulsar timing array searches. With these methods, it is apparent that it is not
necessary to obtain exact a priori knowledge of the period of a binary to gain
meaningful astrophysical inferences.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures. Accepted by Ap
Multimessenger Gravitational-wave Searches with Pulsar Timing Arrays:Application to 3C 66B Using the NANOGrav 11-year Data Set
When galaxies merge, the supermassive black holes in their centers may form binaries and emit low-frequency gravitational radiation in the process. In this paper, we consider the galaxy 3C 66B, which was used as the target of the first multimessenger search for gravitational waves. Due to the observed periodicities present in the photometric and astrometric data of the source, it has been theorized to contain a supermassive black hole binary. Its apparent 1.05-year orbital period would place the gravitational-wave emission directly in the pulsar timing band. Since the first pulsar timing array study of 3C 66B, revised models of the source have been published, and timing array sensitivities and techniques have improved dramatically. With these advances, we further constrain the chirp mass of the potential supermassive black hole binary in 3C 66B to less than (1.65 ± 0.02) Ă 109 M oË using data from the NANOGrav 11-year data set. This upper limit provides a factor of 1.6 improvement over previous limits and a factor of 4.3 over the first search done. Nevertheless, the most recent orbital model for the source is still consistent with our limit from pulsar timing array data. In addition, we are able to quantify the improvement made by the inclusion of source properties gleaned from electromagnetic data over "blind"pulsar timing array searches. With these methods, it is apparent that it is not necessary to obtain exact a priori knowledge of the period of a binary to gain meaningful astrophysical inferences
The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Search for Anisotropy in the Gravitational-Wave Background
The North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav)
has reported evidence for the presence of an isotropic nanohertz gravitational
wave background (GWB) in its 15 yr dataset. However, if the GWB is produced by
a population of inspiraling supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) systems,
then the background is predicted to be anisotropic, depending on the
distribution of these systems in the local Universe and the statistical
properties of the SMBHB population. In this work, we search for anisotropy in
the GWB using multiple methods and bases to describe the distribution of the
GWB power on the sky. We do not find significant evidence of anisotropy, and
place a Bayesian upper limit on the level of broadband anisotropy such
that . We also derive conservative estimates on the
anisotropy expected from a random distribution of SMBHB systems using
astrophysical simulations conditioned on the isotropic GWB inferred in the
15-yr dataset, and show that this dataset has sufficient sensitivity to probe a
large fraction of the predicted level of anisotropy. We end by highlighting the
opportunities and challenges in searching for anisotropy in pulsar timing array
data.Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures; submitted to Astrophysical Journal Letters as
part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave
Background. For questions or comments, please email [email protected]
The NANOGrav 12.5 yr Data Set: A Computationally Efficient Eccentric Binary Search Pipeline and Constraints on an Eccentric Supermassive Binary Candidate in 3C 66B
The radio galaxy 3C 66B has been hypothesized to host a supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) at its center based on electromagnetic observations. Its apparent 1.05 yr period and low redshift (âŒ0.02) make it an interesting testbed to search for low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs) using pulsar timing array (PTA) experiments. This source has been subjected to multiple searches for continuous GWs from a circular SMBHB, resulting in progressively more stringent constraints on its GW amplitude and chirp mass. In this paper, we develop a pipeline for performing Bayesian targeted searches for eccentric SMBHBs in PTA data sets, and test its efficacy by applying it to simulated data sets with varying injected signal strengths. We also search for a realistic eccentric SMBHB source in 3C 66B using the NANOGrav 12.5 yr data set employing PTA signal models containing Earth term-only as well as Earth+pulsar term contributions using this pipeline. Due to limitations in our PTA signal model, we get meaningful results only when the initial eccentricity e 0 < 0.5 and the symmetric mass ratio η > 0.1. We find no evidence for an eccentric SMBHB signal in our data, and therefore place 95% upper limits on the PTA signal amplitude of 88.1 ± 3.7 ns for the Earth term-only and 81.74 ± 0.86 ns for the Earth+pulsar term searches for e 0 < 0.5 and η > 0.1. Similar 95% upper limits on the chirp mass are (1.98 ± 0.05) Ă 109 and (1.81 ± 0.01) Ă 109 M â. These upper limits, while less stringent than those calculated from a circular binary search in the NANOGrav 12.5 yr data set, are consistent with the SMBHB model of 3C 66B developed from electromagnetic observations
The NANOGrav 12.5 yr Data Set: Search for Gravitational Wave Memory
We present the results of a Bayesian search for gravitational wave (GW) memory in the NANOGrav 12.5 yr data set. We find no convincing evidence for any gravitational wave memory signals in this data set. We find a Bayes factor of 2.8 in favor of a model that includes a memory signal and common spatially uncorrelated red noise (CURN) compared to a model including only a CURN. However, further investigation shows that a disproportionate amount of support for the memory signal comes from three dubious pulsars. Using a more flexible red-noise model in these pulsars reduces the Bayes factor to 1.3. Having found no compelling evidence, we go on to place upper limits on the strain amplitude of GW memory events as a function of sky location and event epoch. These upper limits are computed using a signal model that assumes the existence of a common, spatially uncorrelated red noise in addition to a GW memory signal. The median strain upper limit as a function of sky position is approximately 3.3 Ă 10â14. We also find that there are some differences in the upper limits as a function of sky position centered around PSR J0613â0200. This suggests that this pulsar has some excess noise that can be confounded with GW memory. Finally, the upper limits as a function of burst epoch continue to improve at later epochs. This improvement is attributable to the continued growth of the pulsar timing array
The NANOGrav 15-Year Data Set: Detector Characterization and Noise Budget
Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are galactic-scale gravitational wave detectors.
Each individual arm, composed of a millisecond pulsar, a radio telescope, and a
kiloparsecs-long path, differs in its properties but, in aggregate, can be used
to extract low-frequency gravitational wave (GW) signals. We present a noise
and sensitivity analysis to accompany the NANOGrav 15-year data release and
associated papers, along with an in-depth introduction to PTA noise models. As
a first step in our analysis, we characterize each individual pulsar data set
with three types of white noise parameters and two red noise parameters. These
parameters, along with the timing model and, particularly, a piecewise-constant
model for the time-variable dispersion measure, determine the sensitivity curve
over the low-frequency GW band we are searching. We tabulate information for
all of the pulsars in this data release and present some representative
sensitivity curves. We then combine the individual pulsar sensitivities using a
signal-to-noise-ratio statistic to calculate the global sensitivity of the PTA
to a stochastic background of GWs, obtaining a minimum noise characteristic
strain of at 5 nHz. A power law-integrated analysis shows
rough agreement with the amplitudes recovered in NANOGrav's 15-year GW
background analysis. While our phenomenological noise model does not model all
known physical effects explicitly, it provides an accurate characterization of
the noise in the data while preserving sensitivity to multiple classes of GW
signals.Comment: 67 pages, 73 figures, 3 tables; published in Astrophysical Journal
Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational
Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email
[email protected]
The NANOGrav 15-year data set: Search for Transverse Polarization Modes in the Gravitational-Wave Background
Recently we found compelling evidence for a gravitational wave background
with Hellings and Downs (HD) correlations in our 15-year data set. These
correlations describe gravitational waves as predicted by general relativity,
which has two transverse polarization modes. However, more general metric
theories of gravity can have additional polarization modes which produce
different interpulsar correlations. In this work we search the NANOGrav 15-year
data set for evidence of a gravitational wave background with quadrupolar
Hellings and Downs (HD) and Scalar Transverse (ST) correlations. We find that
HD correlations are the best fit to the data, and no significant evidence in
favor of ST correlations. While Bayes factors show strong evidence for a
correlated signal, the data does not strongly prefer either correlation
signature, with Bayes factors when comparing HD to ST correlations,
and for HD plus ST correlations to HD correlations alone. However,
when modeled alongside HD correlations, the amplitude and spectral index
posteriors for ST correlations are uninformative, with the HD process
accounting for the vast majority of the total signal. Using the optimal
statistic, a frequentist technique that focuses on the pulsar-pair
cross-correlations, we find median signal-to-noise-ratios of 5.0 for HD and 4.6
for ST correlations when fit for separately, and median signal-to-noise-ratios
of 3.5 for HD and 3.0 for ST correlations when fit for simultaneously. While
the signal-to-noise-ratios for each of the correlations are comparable, the
estimated amplitude and spectral index for HD are a significantly better fit to
the total signal, in agreement with our Bayesian analysis.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figure
The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Search for Transverse Polarization Modes in the Gravitational-wave Background
Recently we found compelling evidence for a gravitational-wave background with Hellings and Downs (HD) correlations in our 15 yr data set. These correlations describe gravitational waves as predicted by general relativity, which has two transverse polarization modes. However, more general metric theories of gravity can have additional polarization modes, which produce different interpulsar correlations. In this work, we search the NANOGrav 15 yr data set for evidence of a gravitational-wave background with quadrupolar HD and scalar-transverse (ST) correlations. We find that HD correlations are the best fit to the data and no significant evidence in favor of ST correlations. While Bayes factors show strong evidence for a correlated signal, the data does not strongly prefer either correlation signature, with Bayes factors âŒ2 when comparing HD to ST correlations, and âŒ1 for HD plus ST correlations to HD correlations alone. However, when modeled alongside HD correlations, the amplitude and spectral index posteriors for ST correlations are uninformative, with the HD process accounting for the vast majority of the total signal. Using the optimal statistic, a frequentist technique that focuses on the pulsar-pair cross-correlations, we find median signal-to-noise ratios of 5.0 for HD and 4.6 for ST correlations when fit for separately, and median signal-to-noise ratios of 3.5 for HD and 3.0 for ST correlations when fit for simultaneously. While the signal-to-noise ratios for each of the correlations are comparable, the estimated amplitude and spectral index for HD are a significantly better fit to the total signal, in agreement with our Bayesian analysis
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