358 research outputs found
A Generational Model of Political Learning
We propose a mathematical framework for modeling opinion change using large-scale longitudinal data sets. Our framework encompasses two varieties of Bayesian learning theory as well as Mannheim's theory of generational responses to political events. The basic assumptions underlying the model are (1) that historical periods are characterized by shocks to existing political opinions, and (2) that individuals of different ages may attach different weights to those political shocks. Political generations emerge endogenously from these basic assumptions: the political views of identifiable birth cohorts differ, and evolve distinctively through time, due to the interaction of age-specific weights with period-specific shocks. We employ this model to examine generational changes in party identification using survey data from the American National Election Studies
Predispositions and the Political Behavior of American Economic Elites: Evidence from Technology Entrepreneurs
Economic elites regularly seek to exert political influence. But what policies do they support? Many accounts implicitly assume economic elites are homogeneous and that increases in their political power will increase inequality. We shed new light on heterogeneity in economic elites' political preferences, arguing that economic elites from an industry can share distinctive preferences due in part to sharing distinctive predispositions. Consequently, how increases in economic elites' influence affect inequality depends on which industry's elites are gaining influence and which policy issues are at stake. We demonstrate our argument with four original surveys, including the two largest political surveys of American economic elites to date: one of technology entrepreneursâwhose influence is burgeoningâand another of campaign donors. We show that technology entrepreneurs support liberal redistributive, social, and globalistic policies but conservative regulatory policiesâa bundle of preferences rare among other economic elites. These differences appear to arise partly from their distinctive predispositions
Comment on Claude Berrebi and Esteban F. Klor (2008): 'Are Voters Sensitive to Terrorism? Direct Evidence from the Israeli Electorate'
Erwartungsbildung ĂŒber den Wahlausgang und ihr Einfluss auf die Wahlentscheidung
Erwartungen ĂŒber den Wahlausgang haben einen festen Platz sowohl in Rational-Choice-Theorien des WĂ€hlerverhaltens als auch in stĂ€rker sozialpsychologisch orientierten AnsĂ€tzen. Die Bildung von Erwartungen und ihr Einfluss auf die Wahlentscheidung ist dabei jedoch ein noch relativ unerforschtes Gebiet. In diesem Beitrag werden anhand von Wahlstudien fĂŒr Belgien, Ăsterreich und Deutschland verschiedene Fragen der Erwartungsbildung und ihrer Auswirkungen untersucht. ZunĂ€chst wird die QualitĂ€t der Gesamterwartungen analysiert und verschiedene Faktoren identifiziert, die einen systematischen Einfluss auf die Erwartungsbildung haben. Im zweiten Schritt wenden wir uns den Einzelerwartungen ĂŒber verschiedene Parteien und Koalitionen zu und finden eine moderate Verzerrung zugunsten der prĂ€ferierten Parteien und Koalitionen. Dabei kann gezeigt werden, dass der Effekt des Wunschdenkens mit dem politischen Wissen und dem Bildungsgrad abnimmt. SchlieĂlich werden in einem letzten Schritt zwei unterschiedliche Logiken fĂŒr die Auswirkungen von Erwartungen getestet, das rationale KalkĂŒl des koalitionsstrategischen WĂ€hlens zur Vermeidung der Stimmenvergeudung sowie der sozialpsychologisch begrĂŒndete Bandwagon-Effekt. Das AusmaĂ an politischem Wissen scheint dabei eine zentrale vermittelnde Variable zwischen den beiden Logiken zu sein
Dynamic Responsiveness in the U.S. Senate
I develop a theory of dynamic responsiveness that suggests that parties that win elections choose candidates who are more extreme and parties that lose elections choose candidates who are more moderate. Moreover, the size of past victories matters. Close elections yield little change, but landslides yield larger changes in the candidates offered by both parties. I test this theory by analyzing the relationship between Republican vote share in U.S. Senate elections and the ideology of candidates offered in the subsequent election. The results show that Republican (Democratic) victories in past elections yield candidates who are more (less) conservative in subsequent elections, and the effect is proportional to the margin of victory. This suggests that parties or candidates pay attention to past election returns. One major implication is that parties may remain polarized in spite of their responsiveness to the median voter
Positive and Normative Judgments Implicit in U.S. Tax Policy, and the Costs of Unequal Growth and Recessions
Partisans Without Constraint: Political Polarization and Trends in American Public Opinion
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