Essays in applied economics

Cette thèse, structurée en trois essais, aborde des problématiques relatives à l’économie dupersonnel et l’économie du développement. Mes deux premiers essais étudient de façon expérimentale les explications possibles de l’absence de l’arbitrage entre le risque et les incitations dans les contrats. Mon troisième essai analyse l’impact de la maternité et de l’éducation sur l’emploi autonome des femmes dans les pays en développement. Dans le premier chapitre, nous analysons la robustesse interne et externe des mesures expérimentales des préférences pour le risque. Les paramètres de préférence pour le risque sont estimés à l’aide d’une série d’expériences de terrain, réalisées dans une entreprise de plantation d’arbres de taille moyenne en Colombie-Britannique. Notre expérience de mesure des préférences pour le risque est construite selon l’approche de Holt et Laury (2002) d’abord avec des loteries à gains faibles puis avec des loteries à gains élevés. Durant l’expérience avec des gains faibles, les participants peuvent gagner entre 2 et 77 dollars. Les montants des loteries sont doublés durant l’expérience avec des gains élevés. Nos résultats montrent que les préférences pour le risque révélées par les travailleurs changent lorsque les montants en jeu augmentent mais la distribution agrégée des préférences pour le risque est restée stable entre les deux traitements. Par la suite, nous analysons la capacité des paramètres de préférence de risque estimés à partir des deux traitements à prédire le choix des travailleurs entre un contrat à la pièce et un contrat à salaire fixe. Les résultats montrent que les préférences pour le risque révélées lorsque les gains sont élevés, prédisent efficacement les choix de contrat. À l’inverse, les préférences pour le risque estimées lorsque les gains sont faibles, ne prédisent pas le choix de contrat. Nous en déduisons donc que l’augmentation des montants en jeu durant l’expérience motive les travailleurs à jouer la loterie plus sérieusement et ainsi révéler leurs préférences réelles pour le risque. Dans le deuxième chapitre, nous analysons le biais de perception des travailleurs sur la distribution de leur revenu. Une explication possible à l’absence d’arbitrage risque-incitations dans les données contractuelles est que les travailleurs ont une perception incorrecte du risque auquel ils font face dans les contrats. En effet, si les travailleurs sous-estiment le risque, ils seront prêts à travailler dans un environnement très risqué en exigeant une prime de risque plus faible. Ceci réduirait alors le coût de l’incitation pour l’entreprise et supprimerait alors l’arbitrage risque-incitations qui devrait exister dans les contrats. Nous analysons cette problématique en utilisant une série d’expériences de terrain auprès des travailleurs d’une firme de plantation d’arbres en Colombie-Britannique. Au cours de l’expérience, les travailleurs, payés à la pièce, doivent prédire leurs gains espérés sur une durée de 10 jours. À l’aide d’un questionnaire, nous avons obtenu la distribution prédite des gains quotidiens par chaque travailleur. Ensuite, nous construisons la distribution réelle des gains de ces travailleurs en utilisant les données de paie fournies par la firme à l’issue de la saison de plantation. Notre stratégie empirique consiste à apparier la distribution de gains prédite par chaque travailleur avec la distribution réelle des gains pour évaluer l’écart potentiel entre ces deux distributions. Les résultats confirment la présence d’un biais de perception des travailleurs sur leurs gains potentiels sous le contrat de travail à la pièce. En effet, les travailleurs surestiment leurs gains journaliers moyens et sous-estiment la variabilité de leurs gains journaliers et donc le risque auquel ils font face. Par la suite, nos résultats montrent que la sous-estimation du risque accroît la probabilité des travailleurs à choisir un contrat à la pièce au détriment d’un contrat à salaire fixe. Le troisième chapitre s’intéresse à l’impact de la maternité et de l’éducation sur l’emploi autonome des femmes. En effet, la présence d’enfants en bas âge est souvent désignée dans la littérature comme le déterminant principal de l’emploi autonome des femmes. Toutefois, peu d’évidences empiriques existent dans les pays en développement pour confirmer cette idée. À l’aide de données micro-économiques, nous estimons les effets de la maternité et de l’éducation sur la probabilité d’une femme d’exercer un emploi autonome en Ouganda. Notre stratégie empirique combine l’estimation d’un modèle de type Heckman qui corrige le biais de sélection lié à la participation des femmes sur le marché du travail avec des fonctions de contrôle corrigeant pour l’endogénéité de la fertilité et de l’éducation. Les résultats suggèrent que la présence d’enfants en bas âge n’a pas d’impact significatif sur la probabilité d’une femme d’exercer un emploi autonome en Ouganda. À l’inverse, l’éducation a un effet causal négatif et significatif sur l’emploi autonome. Ce qui implique qu’une meilleure éducation accroît la probabilité pour une femme d’accéder à un emploi salarié sur le marché du travail. En termes de politiques, nos résultats impliquent que l’amélioration de l’éducation des filles est une politique plus efficace pour permettre aux femmes d’accéder à des emplois salariés queles politiques visant la réduction du nombre d’enfants.This thesis consists of three essays, encompassing the fields of development and personnel economics, under the broad banner of applied economics. The first two essays of my thesis contribute to the literature of personnel economics by using multiples field experiments to provide empirical insights to the missing risk-incentives trade-off observed in contractual data. The third essay focuses on the causal effects of motherhood and education on female selfemployment in developing countries. In the first chapter, we investigate the internal and external robustness of risk-preference revealing experiments. We estimate the individual risk preference parameters using field experiments from a medium-sized tree-planting firm in British Columbia. We conducted riskrevealing experiments using the approach of Holt and Laury (2002) successively with low payoff lotteries (low-stakes treatment) and high payoff lotteries (high-stakes treatment). During the low-stakes treatment, workers could win between two 2 and 77 dollars. During the high-stakes treatment, workers could win between 4 and 154 dollars. We find that the aggregate distribution of risk preferences is stable across the two treatments but individual attitudes toward risk change across the low-stake treatment and the high-stake treatment. We explore the ability of the estimated risk preference parameters from the two treatments to predict workers choices between a piece-rate contract and a fixed-wage contract. The results show that the risk preferences measured from the high-stakes treatment predict effectively the contract choice decisions while the risk preference parameters measured from the low-stakes treatment are largely irrelevant. We argue that the increase in stakes led workers to take the lottery more seriously, hence the results from the high-stakes treatment are better measures of their true risk preferences. In the second chapter, we analyse the presence of risk perception bias among workers who are paid piece rates. A possible explanation for the lack of risk-incentives trade-off in observed contractual data is that workers have biased perceptions of the income risk that they face in contractual settings. For example, if workers underestimate the risk that is present, they will be willing to work in very risky settings for a reduced earnings premium. This would decrease the firm’s cost of implementing incentives in risky settings and would suppress the risk-incentives trade-off in observed contractual data. We investigate this issue using daily payroll data on the earnings of workers who are paid piece rates. We construct the actual distribution of earnings for individual workers in a tree-planting firm. We then elicit each worker’s perceived earnings distribution, using a questionnaire. We compare the perceived distribution to the actual distribution. Our results suggest that workers overestimate their average daily earnings and underestimate the standard deviation of their daily earnings and hence the earnings risk that they face. This under-estimation of the risk, increases workers’ likelihood of choosing piece rate contracts over the fixed wage contract. In the third chapter, we present new evidence on the impacts of motherhood and education on women’s self-employment probabilities, by accounting for the features of self-employment in a developing country context. Using micro-level data, we estimate the effects of motherhood and education on the self-employment probabilities of women in Uganda. Our estimation framework accounts for selection bias and the endogeneity of motherhood and education jointly, in both the self-employment and the labor force participation regression equations. Consistent estimators of the effects of motherhood and education are obtained by using a Full Information Maximum Likelihood Estimator’s method combined with a control function approach for endogenous regressors. We find no evidence of a causal effect of motherhood on women’s self-employment probabilities. In contrast, education has a negative causal effect on these probabilities. Both these results differ from the existing literature showing that motherhood, not education, drives women’s self-employment probabilities in developed countries. Our results suggest that these findings from the existing literature are not universal, as they do not obtain in the context of a developing economy, where self-employment is predominantly a feature of the insecure informal sector. In this specific context, public policies most effective at reducing the gender gap in pay are likely to be those that pull women out of self-employment, through better education and access to affordable childcare services

Volatility Spillover and International Contagion of Housing Bubbles

This paper provides new empirical evidence on housing bubbles timing, volatility spillover and bubbles contagion between Japan and its economics partners, namely, the United States, the Eurozone, and the United Kingdom. First, we apply a generalized sup ADF (GSADF) test developed by Phillips et al. (2015) to quarterly price-to-rent ratio from 1970Q1 to 2018Q4 to detect explosive behaviors in housing prices. Second, we analyze the volatility spillover in housing prices between Japan and its economic partners using the multivariate time-varying DCC-GARCH model developed by Engle (2002). Third, we assess bubbles contagion using the non-parametric model with time-varying coefficients developed by Greenaway-McGrevy and Phillips (2016). We document two historical bubble episodes from 1970 to 2018 in the Japan’s housing market. Moreover, we find evidence of volatility spillover and bubbles contagion between Japan’s real estate market and its most important economic partners during several periods

Real Estate Bubbles and Contagion: Evidence from Selected European Countries

Using quarterly housing price-to-rent ratios from 1970 to 2020, this paper investigated the presence of real estate bubbles at a national level in six selected European countries, namely France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, and the United Kingdom. We applied the generalized sup ADF test developed by Phillips et al. (2015) to detect explosive behavior in house prices. Subsequently, we implemented the non-parametric model with time varying coefficients developed by Greenaway-McGrevy and Phillips (2016) to estimate bubbles contagion among these real estate markets. We found evidence of housing prices exuberance in all these markets. Results suggest that Germany, France, Spain, and the Netherlands experienced a bubble during the COVID-19 pandemic period, pushing prices higher, suggesting that speculators anticipated capital gains. In terms of bubbles migration, we find that bubbles migrate between these real estate markets

Factors Affecting Adoption of Improved Crops by Rural Farmers in Niger

Improved crops are advocated to meet the dual challenge of food security and the fight against poverty in developing countries. As most poor people in developing countries live in rural areas and depend on agriculture for their livelihood, an important key to get them out of poverty is to increase agricultural productivity by using technologies such as improved crops. However, the rate of improved crops adoption remains surprisingly low in Niger, one of the world poorest countries. In this paper, we examine the factors affecting adoption of improved crops by rural farmers focusing on Niger. Using the 2014’s National Survey on Households Living Conditions and Agriculture, we investigate the effect of farmers’ socioeconomic characteristics, the farm’s quality, the geographic location, the production system, the access to improved seeds and the land tenure on the probability to use improved crops rather than local crops. Our results suggest that the ownership of a government land title is the most important driver in the adoption of improved crops by rural farmers. In addition, being a female, educated, practicing polyculture, having access to improved seed increase the probability to adopt improved crops. In contrast, household size, operating on the parcel for a long period and the parcel size reduces the probability to use improved crops. These determinants of improved crops adoption should be considered in Niger’s agricultural policy to succeed in the dissemination of improved crops among rural farmers. Keywords: Adoption, Improved crops, Farm, Farmer, Nige

Financial Bubbles : New Evidence from South Africa’s Stock Market

We provide new empirical evidence of bubbles timing in the stock market of South Africa. We apply the generalized sup ADF (GSADF) unit root test of Phillips et al. (2015) to monthly share prices from January 1960 to July 2019, to detect explosive behaviors. Results indicate that, overall, South Africa’s stock market has been exuberant during the period 1960-2019. We find strong evidence of three bubble episodes during the periods of April 1968 to July 1969, December 1979 to November 1980 and April 2006 to May 2008 in the stock market of South Africa. The last two bubbles correspond to the 1979 international oil crisis and the 2008 financial crisis suggesting that the south african stock market is still vulnerable to exogenous shocks

Is there an early gender gap in Ghanaian children development? Evidence from 3-4 years old boys and girls

Using data from the 2011 round of the Ghana Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS), we investigate the presence of an early gender gap in child development among children 3-4-year-old. Based on that survey, we built multidimensional indexes of child development that account for children’s ability to read, count, recognize numbers, interact with peers and others, follow rules and be independent for their health outcomes and for their physical skills. This allowed us to estimate the gender gap while controlling for factors affecting child development. Using this approach, we found overall no evidence of gender difference in children’s child development. One index suggests that being female is associated with higher children development. This result is robust to several specifications and sensitivity tests. We also found that a mother’s education, a father’s involvement and the fact of living in an urban area, all increase child development both for boys and for girls. In terms of policy, these findings indicate that the educational gender gap in Ghana most likely reflects unequal access to schooling opportunities between boys and girls

Is there an early gender gap in Ghanaian children development? Evidence from 3-4 years old boys and girls

Using data from the 2011 round of the Ghana Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS), we investigate the presence of an early gender gap in child development among children 3-4-year-old. Based on that survey, we built multidimensional indexes of child development that account for children’s ability to read, count, recognize numbers, interact with peers and others, follow rules and be independent for their health outcomes and for their physical skills. This allowed us to estimate the gender gap while controlling for factors affecting child development. Using this approach, we found overall no evidence of gender difference in children’s child development. One index suggests that being female is associated with higher children development. This result is robust to several specifications and sensitivity tests. We also found that a mother’s education, a father’s involvement and the fact of living in an urban area, all increase child development both for boys and for girls. In terms of policy, these findings indicate that the educational gender gap in Ghana most likely reflects unequal access to schooling opportunities between boys and girls

An Empirical Investigation on Bubbles Contagion in Scandinavian Real Estate Markets

This paper investigates the presence of speculative bubbles in the Scandinavian countries namely Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden over the period from 1980Q1 to 2018Q4 and searches for evidence of bubble migration among those countries. First, we apply the GSADF test developed by Phillips et al. (2015) on quarterly housing price-to-rent ratios to test for exuberance and episodic bubbles. Subsequently, we examine bubble migration between these markets using the non-parametric model with time-varying coefficients (NPM-TVC) developed by Greenaway-McGrevy and Phillips (2016). We find evidence of episodic bubbles in all the Scandinavian real estate markets for the period 1980 to 2018. Our results also indicate that housing bubbles are contagious between these markets during several periods, and the market connection is stronger for geographically neighboring countries