Surface water flood forecasting for urban communities

Key findings and recommendations: • This research has addressed the challenge of surface water flood forecasting by producing the UK’s first operational surface water flood risk forecast with a 24-hour lead time. This was successfully used in Glasgow at the Commonwealth Games in 2014. • The methodology of the Glasgow Pilot has been developed to use nationally available datasets and a transferrable approach which will help urban areas in Scotland improve their resilience to and preparedness for future flooding. • It also delivered a novel method for forecasting the impacts of flooding in real-time and increased knowledge on communicating uncertainties in flood risk. • A real-time forecasting system for surface water flooding from intense rainfall needs to use models that represent surface runoff production, surface water inundation and movement, and how water travels via surface and sub-surface pathways, including urban sewerage and drainage networks. Ensemble rainfall prediction models are key to quantifying uncertainty in forecasting the rainfall that causes surface water flooding. • Detailed surface water flood inundation models exist and are widely used in design and research activities, but none were found to be ready for real-time use. The Grid-to-Grid (G2G) distributed hydrological model was chosen for used in the Glasgow Pilot as it can provide ensemble forecasts of surface water flooding, and takes account of the intensity and pattern of rainfall, land cover and slope, and antecedent conditions. • The research developed a novel methodology for impact assessment that links surface runoff to the severity of flooding impacts on people, property and transport. Use is made of a library of information based on SEPA’s Regional Pluvial (rainfall-related) Flood Hazard maps. • For the Glasgow Pilot, G2G was operated over a 10km by 10km area encompassing Glasgow’s East End and the main areas of activity for the 2014 Commonwealth Games. The research team developed an operational application, called FEWS Glasgow, to support running the model in real-time and reporting on the likely impacts of surface water flooding. A new Daily Glasgow Daily Surface Water Flood Forecast was designed and produced based on operational requirements and emergency responder feedback

Spin glasses without time-reversal symmetry and the absence of a genuine structural glass transition

We study the three-spin model and the Ising spin glass in a field using Migdal-Kadanoff approximation. The flows of the couplings and fields indicate no phase transition, but they show even for the three-spin model a slow crossover to the asymptotic high-temperature behaviour for strong values of the couplings. We also evaluated a quantity that is a measure of the degree of non-self-averaging, and we found that it can become large for certain ranges of the parameters and the system sizes. For the spin glass in a field the maximum of non-self-averaging follows for given system size a line that resembles the de Almeida-Thouless line. We conclude that non-self-averaging found in Monte-Carlo simulations cannot be taken as evidence for the existence of a low-temperature phase with replica-symmetry breaking. Models similar to the three-spin model have been extensively discussed in order to provide a description of structural glasses. Their theory at mean-field level resembles the mode-coupling theory of real glasses. At that level the one-step replica symmetry approach breaking predicts two transitions, the first transition being dynamical and the second thermodynamical. Our results suggest that in real finite dimensional glasses there will be no genuine transitions at all, but that some features of mean-field theory could still provide some useful insights.Comment: 11 pages, 11 figure

Dynamics of Fermionic Four-Wave Mixing

We study the dynamics of a beam of fermions diffracted off a density grating formed by fermionic atoms in the limit of a large grating. An exact description of the system in terms of particle-hole operators is developed. We use a combination of analytical and numerical methods to quantitatively explore the Raman-Nath and the Bragg regimes of diffraction. We discuss the limits in diffraction efficiency resulting from the dephasing of the grating due the distribution of energy states occupied by the fermions. We propose several methods to overcome these limits, including the novel technique of ``atom echoes''.Comment: 8 pages, 7 figure

The Depression Treatment Cascade: Disparities by Alcohol Use, Drug Use, and Panic Symptoms Among Patients in Routine HIV Care in the United States

Little is known about disparities in depression prevalence, treatment, and remission by psychiatric comorbidities and substance use among persons living with HIV (PLWH). We conducted a cross-sectional analysis in a large cohort of PLWH in routine care and analyzed conditional probabilities of having an indication for depression treatment, receiving treatment, receiving indicated treatment adjustments, and achieving remission, stratified by alcohol use, illicit drug use, and panic symptoms. Overall, 34.7% (95% CI 33.9–35.5%) of participants had an indication for depression treatment and of these, 55.3% (53.8–56.8%) were receiving antidepressants. Among patients receiving antidepressants, 33.0% (31.1–34.9%) had evidence of remitted depression. In a subsample of sites with antidepressant dosage data, only 8.8% (6.7–11.5%) of patients received an indicated treatment adjustment. Current drug users (45.8%, 95% CI 43.6–48.1%) and patients reporting full symptoms of panic disorder (75.0%, 95% CI 72.9–77.1%) were most likely to have an indication for antidepressant treatment, least likely to receive treatment given an indication (current drug use: 47.6%, 95% CI 44.3–51.0%; full panic symptoms: 50.8%, 95% CI 48.0–53.6%), or have evidence of remitted depression when treated (22.3%, 95% CI 18.5–26.6%; and 7.3%, 95% CI 5.5–9.6%, respectively). In a multivariable model, drug use and panic symptoms were independently associated with poorer outcomes along the depression treatment cascade. Few differences were evident by alcohol use. Current drug users were most likely to have an indication for depression treatment, but were least likely to be receiving treatment or to have remitted depression. These same disparities were even more starkly evident among patients with co-occurring symptoms of panic disorder compared to those without. Achieving improvements in the depression treatment cascade will likely require attention to substance use and psychiatric comorbidities

Two-Dimensional Spectroscopy of Photospheric Shear Flows in a Small delta Spot

In recent high-resolution observations of complex active regions, long-lasting and well-defined regions of strong flows were identified in major flares and associated with bright kernels of visible, near-infrared, and X-ray radiation. These flows, which occurred in the proximity of the magnetic neutral line, significantly contributed to the generation of magnetic shear. Signatures of these shear flows are strongly curved penumbral filaments, which are almost tangential to sunspot umbrae rather than exhibiting the typical radial filamentary structure. Solar active region NOAA 10756 was a moderately complex, beta-delta sunspot group, which provided an opportunity to extend previous studies of such shear flows to quieter settings. We conclude that shear flows are a common phenomenon in complex active regions and delta spots. However, they are not necessarily a prerequisite condition for flaring. Indeed, in the present observations, the photospheric shear flows along the magnetic neutral line are not related to any change of the local magnetic shear. We present high-resolution observations of NOAA 10756 obtained with the 65-cm vacuum reflector at Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO). Time series of speckle-reconstructed white-light images and two-dimensional spectroscopic data were combined to study the temporal evolution of the three-dimensional vector flow field in the beta-delta sunspot group. An hour-long data set of consistent high quality was obtained, which had a cadence of better than 30 seconds and sub-arcsecond spatial resolution.Comment: 23 pages, 6 gray-scale figures, 4 color figures, 2 tables, submitted to Solar Physic

Precise calculation of parity nonconservation in cesium and test of the standard model

We have calculated the 6s-7s parity nonconserving (PNC) E1 transition amplitude, E_{PNC}, in cesium. We have used an improved all-order technique in the calculation of the correlations and have included all significant contributions to E_{PNC}. Our final value E_{PNC} = 0.904 (1 +/- 0.5 %) \times 10^{-11}iea_{B}(-Q_{W}/N) has half the uncertainty claimed in old calculations used for the interpretation of Cs PNC experiments. The resulting nuclear weak charge Q_{W} for Cs deviates by about 2 standard deviations from the value predicted by the standard model.Comment: 24 pages, 8 figure

Patterns of efavirenz use as first-line antiretroviral therapy in the United States: 1999-2015

Background: Efavirenz has been a mainstay of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for over 15 years in the US. Its association with neuropsychiatric side effects may influence clinical prescribing and management. Methods: We included HIV-infected adults enrolled in care at seven sites across the US, who initiated combination ART between 1999 and 2015. We examined the proportion initiating and continuing on efavirenz, overall and by mental health status. Log binomial and Cox models were used to estimate associations between mental health, clinical and sociodemographic characteristics and initiating or switching from efavirenz as first-line ART. Results: Of the 8,230 participants included, 3,710 (45%) initiated efavirenz. In multivariable analyses, prior mono- or dual-ART, ART initiation after 2006, being female, intravenous drug use, antidepressant prescription, previous mental health diagnosis and baseline CD4+ T-cell count >350 cells/mm3 were inversely associated with initiating efavirenz. Participants initiating efavirenz had a faster time to a regimen switch, compared with those initiating an efavirenz-free regimen (P-value <0.01). Among efavirenz initiators, starting efavirenz in more recent time periods and a previous mental health diagnosis were associated with faster time to switching from efavirenz. Despite this, 40-50% of participants with a previous mental health diagnosis initiated and continued on efavirenz for much of the follow-up period. Conclusions: Multiple clinical factors, including mental health diagnoses, appeared to influence efavirenz use. While mental health diagnosis status and more recent treatment starts were associated with shorter duration of efavirenz therapy, a previous mental health diagnosis did not preclude efavirenz initiation or continuation in many participants

Depressive Symptoms and Engagement in Human Immunodeficiency Virus Care Following Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation

The effect of depressive symptoms on progression through the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment cascade is poorly characterized. Methods. We included participants from the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinic Systems cohort who were antiretroviral therapy (ART) naive, had at least 1 viral load and HIV appointment measure after ART initiation, and a depressive symptom measure within 6 months of ART initiation. Recent depressive symptoms were measured using the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) and categorized using a validated cut point (PHQ-9 =10). We followed participants from ART initiation through the first of the following events: loss to follow-up (12 months with no HIV appointment), death, administrative censoring (2011-2014), or 5 years of follow-up. We used log binomial models with generalized estimating equations to estimate associations between recent depressive symptoms and having a detectable viral load (=75 copies/mL) or missing an HIV visit over time. Results. We included 1057 HIV-infected adults who contributed 2424 person-years. At ART initiation, 30% of participants reported depressive symptoms. In multivariable analysis, recent depressive symptoms increased the risk of having a detectable viral load (risk ratio [RR], 1.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07, 1.53) over time. The association between depressive symptoms and missing an HIV visit (RR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.05, 1.36) moved to the null after adjustment for preexisting mental health conditions (RR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.85, 1.18). Conclusions. Recent depressive symptoms are a risk factor for unsuppressed viral load, while preexisting mental health conditions may influence HIV appointment adherence

Wonder, education, and human flourishing:Theoretical, empirical, and practical perspectives

The premise that underlies this volume is that there are strong interconnections between wonder, education and human flourishing. And more specifically, that wonder can make a significant difference to how well one’s education progresses and how well one’s life goes. The contributors to this volume – both senior, well-known and beginning researchers and students of wonder – variously explore aspects of these connections from philosophical, empirical, theoretical and practical perspectives. The three chapters that comprise Part I of the book are devoted to the importance of wonder for education and for human flourishing. Part II contains four chapters offering conceptual analyses of wonder and perspectives from developmental psychology and philosophy (Spinoza, Wittgenstein, philosophy of religion). The seven chapters that form Part III contain a wealth of ideas and educational strategies to promote wonder in education and teacher education. This volume not only underlines and articulates the importance of wonder in education and in life but also offers fresh perspectives, allowing us to look with renewed wonder at wonder itself

The relationship between efavirenz as initial antiretroviral therapy and suicidal thoughts among HIV-infected adults in routine care

Background: Evidence about the effect of initiating efavirenz-containing combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) as the first-line therapy on suicidal thoughts remains conflicting. Methods: Using data from a cohort of HIV-infected adults enrolled in routine care across 5 sites in the United States, we included participants with a baseline patient-reported outcome measure and detectable viral load who initiated ART between 2011 and 2014. Participants were followed until the earliest of the following: first suicidal thoughts, discontinuation of initial ART regimen, death, loss to care (>12 months with no HIV appointments), or administrative censoring (2014-2015). Suicidal thoughts were measured using a Patient Health Questionnaire-9 item. We used weighted marginal structural Cox models to estimate the effect of initiating efavirenz-containing ART, versus efavirenz-free ART, on the hazard of active or passive suicidal thoughts after ART initiation, accounting for confounding by channeling bias. Results: Overall, 597 participants were followed for a median of 19 months (13, 132 total person-months); 147 (25%) initiated efavirenz-containing ART. At ART initiation, 38% of participants reported suicidal thoughts or depressive symptoms. Initiating efavirenz-based ART was associated with a hazard ratio (HR) for suicidal thoughts below the null in the crude analysis [HR, 0.88; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.53 to 1.45] and above the null in the weighted analysis (HR, 1.21; 95% CI: 0.66 to 2.28). Among those with a prior mental health issue, the weighted HR was 1.76 (95% CI: 0.45 to 6.86). Conclusions: After accounting for measured channeling bias, we observed no strong evidence that initiating efavirenz-containing ART increased the hazard of suicidal thoughts