Labor Force Participation: Timing and Persistence

This paper examines the relative importance of timing and persistence elements in explaining cyclical fluctuations in labor supply. Data from the natural experiment provided by World War I1 and cross-sectional data on American local labor markets, as well as aggregate time-series data are used in the empirical work. We find little evidence that timing effects play an important role in labor market dynamics. The evidence suggests that views emphasizing persistence are more accurate, and that previous employment tends to raise the probability of subsequent employment.

Evaluation of microwave landing system approaches in a wide-body transport simulator

The objective of this study was to determine the suitability of flying complex curved approaches using the microwave landing system (MLS) with a wide-body transport aircraft. Fifty pilots in crews of two participated in the evaluation using a fixed-base simulator that emulated an MD-11 aircraft. Five approaches, consisting of one straight-in approach and four curved approaches, were flown by the pilots using a flight director. The test variables include the following: (1) manual and autothrottles; (2) wind direction; and (3) type of navigation display. The navigation display was either a map or a horizontal situation indicator (HSI). A complex wind that changed direction and speed with altitude, and included moderate turbulence, was used. Visibility conditions were Cat 1 or better. Subjective test data included pilot responses to questionnaires and pilot comments. Objective performance data included tracking accuracy, position error at decision height, and control activity. Results of the evaluation indicate that flying curved MLS approaches with a wide-body transport aircraft is operationally acceptable, depending upon the length of the final straight segment and the complexity of the approach

System status display information

The system Status Display is an electronic display system which provides the flight crew with enhanced capabilities for monitoring and managing aircraft systems. Guidelines for the design of the electronic system displays were established. The technical approach involved the application of a system engineering approach to the design of candidate displays and the evaluation of a Hernative concepts by part-task simulation. The system engineering and selection of candidate displays are covered

The Dynamics of Youth Unemployment

This paper analyzes the dynamics of youth unemployment. Three broad conclusions emerge. First, the problem of youth joblessness extends beyond the unemployed. We find that over one-half of youth unemployment spells end in labor force withdrawal. Much of youth non-employment is not picked up in the official unemployment statistics, because many young people give up the search for work and leave the labor force. Second, a large part of youth unemployment is accounted for by a relatively small, hard core group of young people who experience long spells of unemployment. While most unemployment spells are short, this is due to the high rates of labor force withdrawal, rather than to job finding. Among male teenagers out of school, for example, we find that over half of unemployment was due to those with more than six months of unemployment in the year. Third, a shortage of attractive jobs is the principle source of long term non-employment. While instability and frequent turnover are major factors in determining the overall pattern of teenage unemployment, we find that the lack of desirable employment opportunities is the crux of the problem for those most seriously affected by youth unemployment.

Gibson's Paradox and the Gold Standard

This paper provides a new explanation for Gibson's Paradox -- the observation that the price level and the nominal interest rate were positively correlated over long periods of economic history. We explain this phenomenon interms of the fundamental workings of a gold standard. Under a gold standard, the price level is the reciprocal of the real price of gold. Because gold is adurable asset, its relative price is systematically affected by fluctuations inthe real productivity of capital, which also determine real interest rates. Our resolution of the Gibson Paradox seems more satisfactory than previous hypotheses. It explains why the paradox applied to real as well as nominal rates of return, its coincidence with the gold standard period, and the co-movement of interest rates, prices, and the stock of monetary gold during the gold standard period. Empirical evidence using contemporary data on gold prices and real interest rates supports our theory.

Reflections on the Inter-Industry Wage Structure

This paper reviews available evidence on the inter-industry wage structure. The inter-industry wage structure is remarkably similar in different eras, in different countries, and among different types of workers. Industries with high capital-to-labor ratios, monopoly power and high profits pay relatively high wages. We conclude that the competitive model cannot without substantial modification provide an adequate explanation of the inter-industry wage structure. The implications of this finding for micro and macro economic theory and policy are examined.

Demographic Differences in Cyclical Employment Variation

Demographic differences in patterns of employment variation over the business cycle are examined in this paper. Three primary conclusions emerge. First, both participation and unemployment must be considered in any analysis of cyclical changes in the labor market. Second, young people bear a disproportionate share of cyclical employment variation. Third, failure to consider participation has led to undue pessimism about the effect of aggregate demand policy on high unemployment groups. If participation did not surge, reduction in overall unemployment to its 1969 level would reduce the unemployment of almost all demographic groups to very low levels.