River ice responses to a warming Arctic—recent evidence from Russian rivers

This paper looks at the response of river ice to recent warming in the Arctic at six major downstream gauges on large Russian rivers flowing to the Arctic Ocean. For the Severnaya Dvina, Ob, Yenisey, Lena, Yana and Kolyma we determine how river ice has changed in recent years and we try to understand the underlying causes of those changes. Long-term variability and trends in beginning and ending dates of ice events, duration of ice conditions, and maximum ice thickness were analyzed over 1955–2012. Significant changes in timing of ice events and a decrease in ice thickness were found for the five Siberian rivers. Duration of ice conditions decreased from 7 days for the Severnaya Dvina, Lena and Yenisey to almost 20 days for the Ob at Salekhard. The change in timing of ice events is consistent with changes in regional air temperature, which has significantly increased at each of these river gauges, except Lena-Kusur. The primary cause of the considerable increase in maximum ice thickness was not identified. Variation of mean winter air temperature and river discharge do not correlate well with maximum ice thickness and it is assumed the influence of specific local conditions can play a more important role in ice formation at these locations. Understanding this interrelationship across the Eurasian pan-Arctic using more comprehensive data archives for river ice and discharge is therefore needed

River Discharge, in Chapter 5, Arctic, State of the Climate in 2010

Several large-scale climate patterns influenced climate conditions and weather patterns across the globe during 2010. The transition from a warm El Niño phase at the beginning of the year to a cool La Niña phase by July contributed to many notable events, ranging from record wetness across much of Australia to historically low Eastern Pacific basin and near-record high North Atlantic basin hurricane activity. The remaining five main hurricane basins experienced below- to well-below-normal tropical cyclone activity. The negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation was a major driver of Northern Hemisphere temperature patterns during 2009/10 winter and again in late 2010. It contributed to record snowfall and unusually low temperatures over much of northern Eurasia and parts of the United States, while bringing above-normal temperatures to the high northern latitudes. The February Arctic Oscillation Index value was the most negative since records began in 1950

Record Russian river discharge in 2007 and the limits of analysis

The Arctic water cycle has experienced an unprecedented degree of change which may have planetary-scale impacts. The year 2007 in particular not only was unique in terms of minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean but also was a record breaking year for Eurasian river inflow to the Arctic Ocean. Over the observational period from 1936 to 2006, the mean annual river discharge for the six largest Russian rivers was 1796 km3 y−1, with the previous record high being 2080 km3 y−1, in 2002. The year 2007 showed a massive flux of fresh water from these six drainage basins of 2254 km3 y−1. We investigated the hydroclimatological conditions for such extreme river discharge and found that while that year\u27s flow was unusually high, the overall spatial patterns were consistent with the hydroclimatic trends since 1980, indicating that 2007 was not an aberration but a part of the general trend. We wanted to extend our hydroclimatological analysis of river discharge anomalies to seasonal and monthly time steps; however, there were limits to such analyses due to the direct human impact on the river systems. Using reconstructions of the naturalized hydrographs over the Yenisey basin we defined the limits to analysis due to the effect of reservoirs on river discharge. For annual time steps the trends are less impacted by dam construction, whereas for seasonal and monthly time steps these data are confounded by the two sources of change, and the climate change signals were overwhelmed by the human-induced river impoundments. We offer two solutions to this problem; first, we recommend wider use of algorithms to \u27naturalize\u27 the river discharge data and, second, we suggest the identification of a network of existing and stable river monitoring sites to be used for climate change analysis

River Discharge, Arctic Report Card: Update for 2011

Total annual discharge, 1813 km3 /year, in 2010 from the six largest Eurasian rivers (Sev. Dvina, Pechora, Ob, Yenisey, Lena and Kolyma) flowing into the Arctic Ocean was very close to the 1936-2009 long-term mean of 1808 km3 /year. Mean annual discharge, 514 km3 /year, in 2010 from the four large North American Arctic rivers (Mackenzie, Yukon, Back and Peel) was ~3% lower than the long-term mean (529 km3 /year)

Pan‐Arctic river discharge: Prioritizing monitoring of future climate change hot spots

The Arctic freshwater cycle is changing rapidly, which will require adequate monitoring of river flows to detect, observe, and understand changes and provide adaptation information. There has, however, been little detail about where the greatest flow changes are projected, and where monitoring therefore may need to be strengthened. In this study, we used a set of recent climate model runs and an advanced macro‐scale hydrological model to analyze how flows across the continental pan‐Arctic are projected to change and where the climate models agree on significant changes. We also developed a method to identify where monitoring stations should be placed to observe these significant changes, and compared this set of suggested locations with the existing network of monitoring stations. Overall, our results reinforce earlier indications of large increases in flow over much of the Arctic, but we also identify some areas where projections agree on significant changes but disagree on the sign of change. For monitoring, central and eastern Siberia, Alaska, and central Canada are hot spots for the highest changes. To take advantage of existing networks, a number of stations across central Canada and western and central Siberia could form a prioritized set. Further development of model representation of high‐latitude hydrology would improve confidence in the areas we identify here. Nevertheless, ongoing observation programs may consider these suggested locations in efforts to improve monitoring of the rapidly changing Arctic freshwater cycle

Scaling gridded river networks for macroscale hydrology: Development, analysis, and control of error

A simple and robust river network scaling algorithm (NSA) is presented to rescale fine‐resolution networks to any coarser resolution. The algorithm was tested over the Danube River basin and the European continent. Coarse‐resolution networks, at 2.5, 5, 10, and 30 min resolutions, were derived from higher‐resolution gridded networks using NSA and geomorphometric attributes, such as river order, shape index, and width function. These parameters were calculated and compared at each resolution. Simple scaling relationships were found to predict decreasing river lengths with coarser‐resolution data. This relationship can be used to correct river length as a function of grid resolution. The length‐corrected width functions of the major river basins in Europe were compared at different resolutions to assess river network performance. The discretization error in representing basin area and river lengths at coarser resolutions were analyzed, and simple relationships were found to calculate the minimum number of grid cells needed to maintain the catchment area and length within a desired level of accuracy. This relationship among geomorphological characteristics, such as shape index and width function (derived from gridded networks at different resolutions), suggests that a minimum of 200–300 grid cells is necessary to maintain the geomorphological characteristics of the river networks with sufficient accuracy

Arctic HYCOS – 1st Workshop on Improved Monitoring, Accuracy and Data Availability in the Arctic Drainage Basin: Meeting Summary Report and Implementation Plan

The World Hydrological Cycle Observing System (WHYCOS) is a global programme, developed in response to the scarcity or absence of accurate, timely and accessible data and information in real or near real time on freshwater resources in many parts of the world. The programme is implemented through various components (HYCOSs) at the regional and/or basin scale. It is guided by the WHYCOS International Advisory Group (WIAG). The Arctic-HYCOS program is being promoted through this Workshop. For more information on the WHYCOS, please see http://www.whycos.org/cms/. The main goal of the Arctic-HYCOS program is to improve monitoring, data accuracy, availability and dissemination of information in the pan-arctic drainage basin. This project is science-driven and is aimed at monitoring freshwater fluxes and pollutants into the Arctic Ocean with the objective of improving climate predictions in the Northern Hemisphere and assessing the pollution of the Arctic coastal areas and the open Arctic Ocean. Arctic-HYCOS is currently organized along three main activities. 1. Develop and optimal design fro hydro-meteorological monitoring networks to capture the essential variability of the Arctic hydrological system and to enable accurate and efficient assessment of change 2. Estimate uncertainty of available in situ and possible remote sensing data including analysis of accuracy and systematic errors of new observation technology 3. Develop an integrated pan-arctic data consolidation and analysis system for the water cycle uniting data from various in-situ and other sources

Widespread decline in hydrological monitoring threatens Pan‐Arctic Research

Operational river discharge monitoring is declining in both North America and Eurasia. This problem is especially severe in the Far East of Siberia and the province of Ontario, where 73% and 67% of river gauges were closed between 1986 and 1999, respectively. These reductions will greatly affect our ability to study variations in and alterations to the pan‐Arctic hydrological cycle

Variability in river temperature, discharge, and energy flux from the Russian pan‐Arctic landmass

We introduce a new Arctic river temperature data set covering 20 gauges in 17 unique Arctic Ocean drainage basins in the Russian pan‐Arctic (ART‐Russia). Warm season 10‐day time step data (decades) were collected from Russian archival sources covering a period from 1929 to 2003 with most data falling in the range from the mid‐1930s to the early 1990s. The water temperature data were combined with river discharge data to estimate energy flux for all basins and over the Russian pan‐Arctic as a whole. Tests for trend were carried out for water temperature, river discharge, and energy flux. Spatially coherent significant increases in the maximum decadal river temperature were found in the European part of the Russian pan‐Arctic. Several other drainage basins showed significant changes, but there was no strong pattern either in the connections between variables or spatially. The trend in area averaged energy flux for the three largest drainage basins (Ob, Yenisey, Lena) combined was found to be significantly decreasing. We speculate that in the Yenisey basin, this decrease was due to large impoundments of river water. The lack of consistency between temperature and energy flux trends was due to the difference in timing between peaks in river temperature and river discharge. The mean area averaged energy flux from the Russian basins was 0.2 W m−2. Using this mean we estimated the total energy flux from the entire Russian pan‐Arctic, both gauged and ungauged, to be 82 EJ a−1

Effects of Uncertainty in Climate Inputs on Simulated Evapotranspiration and Runoff in the Western Arctic

Hydrological models require accurate precipitation and air temperature inputs in order to adequately depict water fluxes and storages across Arctic regions. Biases such as gauge undercatch, as well as uncertainties in numerical weather prediction reanalysis data that propagate through water budget models, limit the ability to accurately model the terrestrial arctic water cycle. A hydrological model forced with three climate datasets and three methods of estimating potential evapotranspiration (PET) was used to better understand the impact of these processes on simulated water fluxes across the Western Arctic Linkage Experiment (WALE) domain. Climate data were drawn from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis (NNR) (NCEP1), a modified version of the NNR (NCEP2), and the Willmott–Matsuura (WM) dataset. PET methods applied in the model were Hamon, Penman–Monteith, and Penman–Monteith using adjusted vapor pressure data. High vapor pressures in the NNR lead to low simulated evapotranspiration (ET) in model runs using the Penman–Monteith PET method, resulting in increased runoff. Annual ET derived from simulations using Penman–Monteith PET was half the magnitude of ET simulated when the Hamon method was used. Adjustments made to the reanalysis vapor pressure data increased the simulated ET flux, reducing simulated runoff. Using the NCEP2 or WM climate data, along with the Penman–Monteith PET function, results in agreement to within 7% between the simulated and observed runoff across the Yukon River basin. The results reveal the high degree of uncertainty present in climate data and the range of water fluxes generated from common model drivers. This suggests the need for thorough evaluations of model requirements and potential biases in forcing data, as well as corroborations with observed data, in all efforts to simulate arctic water balances