Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Case-Notification Data from Multiple Countries

Despite being the most widely distributed mosquito-borne viral infection, estimates of dengue transmission intensity and associated burden remain ambiguous. With advances in the development of novel control measures, obtaining robust estimates of average dengue transmission intensity is key for assessing the burden of disease and the likely impact of interventions.We estimated the force of infection (λ) and corresponding basic reproduction numbers (R0) by fitting catalytic models to age-stratified incidence data identified from the literature. We compared estimates derived from incidence and seroprevalence data and assessed the level of under-reporting of dengue disease. In addition, we estimated the relative contribution of primary to quaternary infections to the observed burden of dengue disease incidence. The majority of R0 estimates ranged from one to five and the force of infection estimates from incidence data were consistent with those previously estimated from seroprevalence data. The baseline reporting rate (or the probability of detecting a secondary infection) was generally low (<25%) and varied within and between countries.As expected, estimates varied widely across and within countries, highlighting the spatio-temporally heterogeneous nature of dengue transmission. Although seroprevalence data provide the maximum information, the incidence models presented in this paper provide a method for estimating dengue transmission intensity from age-stratified incidence data, which will be an important consideration in areas where seroprevalence data are not available

National dengue surveillance in the Lao People's Democratic Republic, 2006-2012: epidemiological and laboratory findings.

Although dengue has been a public health problem for several decades in the Lao People's Democratic Republic, the magnitude of the disease burden and epidemiological trends remain poorly understood. We analysed national dengue surveillance and laboratory data from 2006 to 2012 by person, place and time. Between 2006 and 2012, the annual dengue notification rate ranged between 62 and 367 cases per 100 000 population with an apparent geographical expansion of transmission throughout the country in recent years and concurrent co-circulation of all four dengue virus subtypes. An electronic database, called Lao People's Democratic Republic Early Warning Alert and Response Network, was introduced in 2008 to provide automated early warning for outbreaks and epidemics. Village outbreaks continue to be notified primarily through event-based surveillance, whereas the weekly indicator-based system provides systematic assessment of annual epidemic cycles. The dengue case data indicate a high and increasing burden of disease. Efforts now need to focus on using available data to prompt more effective outbreak response and to guide the design and implementation of intervention strategies

National dengue surveillance in the Lao People's Democratic Republic, 2006-2012: epidemiological and laboratory findings.

Although dengue has been a public health problem for several decades in the Lao People's Democratic Republic, the magnitude of the disease burden and epidemiological trends remain poorly understood. We analysed national dengue surveillance and laboratory data from 2006 to 2012 by person, place and time. Between 2006 and 2012, the annual dengue notification rate ranged between 62 and 367 cases per 100 000 population with an apparent geographical expansion of transmission throughout the country in recent years and concurrent co-circulation of all four dengue virus subtypes. An electronic database, called Lao People's Democratic Republic Early Warning Alert and Response Network, was introduced in 2008 to provide automated early warning for outbreaks and epidemics. Village outbreaks continue to be notified primarily through event-based surveillance, whereas the weekly indicator-based system provides systematic assessment of annual epidemic cycles. The dengue case data indicate a high and increasing burden of disease. Efforts now need to focus on using available data to prompt more effective outbreak response and to guide the design and implementation of intervention strategies