Empirical Evidence on the Use of Credit Scoring for Predicting Insurance Losses with Psycho-social and Biochemical Explanations

An important development in personal lines of insurance in the United States is the use of credit history data for insurance risk classification to predict losses. This research presents the results of collaboration with industry conducted by a university at the request of its state legislature. The purpose was to see the viability and validity of the use of credit scoring to predict insurance losses given its controversial nature and criticism as redundant of other predictive variables currently used. Working with industry and government, this study analyzed more than 175,000 policyholders’ information for the relationship between credit score and claims. Credit scores were significantly related to incurred losses, evidencing both statistical and practical significance. We investigate whether the revealed relationship between credit score and incurred losses was explainable by overlap with existing underwriting variables or whether the credit score adds new information about losses not contained in existing underwriting variables. The results show that credit scores contain significant information not already incorporated into other traditional rating variables (e.g., age, sex, driving history). We discuss how sensation seeking and self-control theory provide a partial explanation of why credit scoring works (the psycho-social perspective). This article also presents an overview of biological and chemical correlates of risk taking that helps explain why knowing risk-taking behavior in one realm (e.g., risky financial behavior and poor credit history) transits to predicting risk-taking behavior in other realms (e.g., automobile insurance incurred losses). Additional research is needed to advance new nontraditional loss prediction variables from social media consumer information to using information provided by technological advances. The evolving and dynamic nature of the insurance marketplace makes it imperative that professionals continue to evolve predictive variables and for academics to assist with understanding the whys of the relationships through theory development.IC2 Institut

Anaerobic Detoxification of Acetic Acid in a Thermophilic Ethanologen

The liberation of acetate from hemicellulose negatively impacts fermentations of cellulosic biomass, limiting the concentrations of substrate that can be effectively processed. Solvent-producing bacteria have the capacity to convert acetate to the less toxic product acetone, but to the best of our knowledge, this trait has not been transferred to an organism that produces ethanol at high yield. We have engineered a five-step metabolic pathway to convert acetic acid to acetone in the thermophilic anaerobe Thermoanaerobacterium saccharolyticum.

Response surface methodology (RSM) to evaluate moisture effects on corn stover in recovering xylose by DEO hydrolysis

Response surface methodology (RSM), based on a 2(2) full factorial design, evaluated the moisture effects in recovering xylose by diethyloxalate (DEO) hydrolysis. Experiments were carried out in laboratory reactors (10 mL glass ampoules) containing corn stover (0.5 g) properly ground. The ampoules were kept at 160 degrees C for 90 min.(-) Both DEO concentration and corn stover moisture content were statistically significant at 99% confidence level. The maximum xylose recovery by the response surface methodology was achieved employing both DEO concentration and corn stover moisture at near their highest levels area. We amplified this area by using an overlay plot as a graphical optimization using a response of xylose recovery more than 80%. The mathematical statistical model was validated by testing a specific condition in the satisfied overlay plot area. Experimentally, a maximum xylose recovery (81.2%) was achieved by using initial corn stover moisture of 60% and a DEO concentration of 4% w/w. The mathematical statistical model showed that xylose recovery increases during DEO corn stover acid hydrolysis as the corn stover moisture level increases. This observation could be important during the harvesting of corn before it is fully dried in the field. The corn stover moisture was an important variable to improve xylose recovery by DEO acid hydrolysis. (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.CNPq, Brazil [200702/2006-8

Three allele combinations associated with Multiple Sclerosis

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an immune-mediated disease of polygenic etiology. Dissection of its genetic background is a complex problem, because of the combinatorial possibilities of gene-gene interactions. As genotyping methods improve throughput, approaches that can explore multigene interactions appropriately should lead to improved understanding of MS. METHODS: 286 unrelated patients with definite MS and 362 unrelated healthy controls of Russian descent were genotyped at polymorphic loci (including SNPs, repeat polymorphisms, and an insertion/deletion) of the DRB1, TNF, LT, TGFβ1, CCR5 and CTLA4 genes and TNFa and TNFb microsatellites. Each allele carriership in patients and controls was compared by Fisher's exact test, and disease-associated combinations of alleles in the data set were sought using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo-based method recently developed by our group. RESULTS: We identified two previously unknown MS-associated tri-allelic combinations: -509TGFβ1*C, DRB1*18(3), CTLA4*G and -238TNF*B1,-308TNF*A2, CTLA4*G, which perfectly separate MS cases from controls, at least in the present sample. The previously described DRB1*15(2) allele, the microsatellite TNFa9 allele and the biallelic combination CCR5Δ32, DRB1*04 were also reidentified as MS-associated. CONCLUSION: These results represent an independent validation of MS association with DRB1*15(2) and TNFa9 in Russians and are the first to find the interplay of three loci in conferring susceptibility to MS. They demonstrate the efficacy of our approach for the identification of complex-disease-associated combinations of alleles

Evidence of superficial knowledge regarding antibiotics and their use: Results of two cross-sectional surveys in an urban informal settlement in Kenya

<div><p>We assessed knowledge and practices related to antibiotic use in Kibera, an urban informal settlement in Kenya. Surveys was employed at the beginning (entry) and again at the end (exit) of a 5-month longitudinal study of AMR. Two-hundred households were interviewed at entry, of which 149 were also interviewed at exit. The majority (>65%) of respondents in both surveys could name at least one antibiotic, with amoxicillin and cotrimoxazole jointly accounting for 85% and 77% of antibiotics mentioned during entry and exit, respectively. More than 80% of respondents felt antibiotics should not be shared or discontinued following the alleviation of symptoms. Nevertheless, 66% and 74% of respondents considered antibiotics effective for treating colds and flu in the entry and exit surveys, respectively. There was a high (87%, entry; 70% exit) level of reported antibiotic use (past 12 months) mainly for colds/flu, coughs and fever, with >80% of respondents obtaining antibiotics from health facilities and pharmacies. Less than half of respondents remembered getting information on the correct use of antibiotics, although 100% of those who did reported improved attitudes towards antibiotic use. Clinicians and community pharmacists were highly trusted information sources. Paired household responses (n = 149) generally showed improved knowledge and attitudes by the exit survey although practices were largely unchanged. Weak agreement (κ = -0.003 to 0.22) between survey responses suggest both that unintended learning had not occurred, and that participant responses were not based on established knowledge or behaviors. Targeted public education regarding antibiotics is needed to address this gap.</p></div