"Prospects for the U.S. and the World -- A Crisis That Conventional Remedies Cannot Resolve"

The economic recovery plans currently under consideration by the United States and many other countries seem to be concentrated on the possibility of using expansionary fiscal and monetary policies alone. In a new Strategic Analysis, the Levy Institute's Macro-Modeling Team argues that, however well coordinated, this approach will not be sufficient; what's required, they say, is a worldwide recovery of output, combined with sustainable balances in international trade.

"The U.S. Economy: Is There a Way Out of the Woods?"

This Strategic Analysis provides a retrospective view of U.S. growth in the last 10 years, showing that the authors’ previous work, grounded in the linkages between growth and the financial balances of the private, public, and foreign sectors of the economy, has proven a useful contribution to the public discussion. The analysis reviews recent events in the U.S. housing and financial markets to obtain a likely scenario for the evolution of household spending. It argues that a significant drop in borrowing is likely to take place in the coming quarters, with severe consequences for growth and unemployment, unless (1) the U.S. dollar is allowed to continue its fall and thus complete the recovery in the U.S. external imbalance, and (2) fiscal policy shifts its course—as it did in the 2001 recession.

"The United States and Her Creditors: Can the Symbiosis Last?"

The main arguments in this paper can be simply stated: 1) If output in the US grows fast enough to keep unemployment constant between now and 2010 and if there is no further depreciation in the dollar, the deficit in the balance of trade is likely to get worse, perhaps reaching 7.5 per cent by the end of the decade. 2) If the trade deficit does not improve, let alone if it gets worse, there will be a large further deterioration in the US's net foreign asset position so that, with interest rates rising, net income payments from abroad will at last turn negative and the deficit in the current account as a whole could reach at least 8.5 per cent of GDP. . . .

Estatus de las tortugas marinas en Montserrat (Caribe oriental)

The status of marine turtles in Montserrat (Eastern Caribbean) is reviewed following five years of monitoring (1999–2003). The mean number of nests recorded during the annual nesting season (June–October) was 53 (± 24.9 SD; range: 13–43). In accordance with earlier reports, the nesting of hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata) and green (Chelonia mydas) turtles was confirmed on several beaches around the island. Only non–nesting emergences were documented for loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) and there was no evidence of nesting by leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea); however, it is possible that additional survey effort would reveal low density nesting by these species. Officially reported turtle capture data for 1993–2003 suggest that a mean of 0.9 turtle per year (± 1.2 SD; range: 0–4) were landed island–wide, with all harvest having occurred during the annual open season (1 October to 31 May). Informed observers believe that the harvest is significantly under–reported and that fishermen avoid declaring their catch by butchering turtles at sea (both during and outside the open season). Of concern is the fact that breeding adults are potentially included in the harvest, and that the open season partially coincides with the breeding season. The present study has shown that although Montserrat is not a major nesting site for sea turtles, it remains important on a regional basis for the Eastern Caribbean.Se ha estudiado la situación de las tortugas marinas en Montserrat (Caribe oriental) mediante un seguimiento de cinco años (1999–2003). El número medio de nidos registrados durante la estación anual de nidificación (junio–octubre) fue de 53 (± 24.9 SD; rango: 13–143). En concordancia con informes anteriores, se confirmó la nidificacón de las tortugas carey (Eretmochelys imbricata) y verde (Chelonia mydas) en varias playas alrededor de la isla. En la tortuga boba (Caretta caretta) sólo se registraron salidas sin nidificación, y no se encontraron pruebas de que la tortuga laúd (Dermochelys coriacea) nidificase; sin embargo, es posible que ulteriores estudios pongan de manifiesto una baja densidad de nidificación de esta especie. Los datos oficiales de capturas de tortugas (1993–2003) sugieren que en toda la isla llegaban a tierra una media de 0.9 tortugas anuales (± 1.2 SD; rango: 0–4), produciéndose todas las capturas cuando se había levantado la veda. Observadores bien documentados creen que las cifras de recolección están significativamente falseadas a la baja, y que los pescadores evitan declarar sus capturas sacrificando las tortugas en el mar (con la veda abierta o cerrada). Es preocupante que en esta caza puedan incluirse tortugas que crían, y que el período de captura permitida coincide en parte con la estación reproductora. Este estudio demuestra que aunque Montserrat no es un lugar principal de nidificación de las tortugas marinas, sigue siendo importante a escala regional en el Caribe oriental

The effect of biologging devices on reproduction, growth and survival of adult sea turtles

This is the final version. Available from BMC via the DOI in this record.The datasets used and/or analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.Background Telemetry and biologging systems, ‘tracking’ hereafter, have been instrumental in meeting the challenges associated with studying the ecology and behaviour of cryptic, wide-ranging marine mega-vertebrates. Over recent decades, globally, sea turtle tracking has increased exponentially, across species and life-stages, despite a paucity of studies investigating the effects of such devices on study animals. Indeed, such studies are key to informing whether data collected are unbiased and, whether derived estimates can be considered typical of the population at large. Methods Here, using a 26-year individual-based monitoring dataset on sympatric green (Chelonia mydas) and loggerhead (Caretta caretta) turtles, we provide the first analysis of the effects of device attachment on reproduction, growth and survival of nesting females. Results We found no significant difference in growth and reproductive correlates between tracked and non-tracked females in the years following device attachment. Similarly, when comparing pre- and post-tracking data, we found no significant difference in the reproductive correlates of tracked females for either species or significant carry-over effects of device attachment on reproductive correlates in green turtles. The latter was not investigated for loggerhead turtles due to small sample size. Finally, we found no significant effects of device attachment on return rates or survival of tracked females for either species. Conclusion While there were no significant detrimental effects of device attachment on adult sea turtles in this region, our study highlights the need for other similar studies elsewhere and the value of long-term individual-based monitoring

Understanding individual and population-level effects of plastic pollution on marine megafauna

This is the final version. Available on open access from Inter Research via the DOI in this recordPlastic pollution is increasing rapidly throughout the world’s oceans and is considered a major threat to marine wildlife and ecosystems. Although known to cause lethal or sub-lethal effects to vulnerable marine megafauna, population-level impacts of plastic pollution have not been thoroughly investigated. Here, we compiled and evaluated information from peer-reviewed studies that reported deleterious individual-level effects of plastic pollution on air-breathing marine megafauna (i.e. seabirds, marine mammals, and sea turtles) worldwide, highlighting those that assessed potential population-level effects. Lethal and sub-lethal individual-level effects included drowning, starvation, gastrointestinal tract damage, malnutrition, physical injury, reduced mobility, and physiological stress, resulting in reduced energy acquisition and assimilation, compromised health, reproductive impairment, and mortality. We found 47 studies published between 1969 and 2020 that considered population-level effects of plastic entanglement (n = 26), ingestion (n = 19), or both (n = 2). Of these, 7 inferred population-level effects (n = 6, entanglement; n = 1, ingestion), whereas 19 lacked evidence for effects (n = 12, entanglement; n = 6, ingestion; n = 1, both). However, no study in the past 50 yr reported direct evidence of population-level effects. Despite increased interest in and awareness of the presence of plastic pollution throughout the world’s oceans, the extent and magnitude of demographic impacts on marine megafauna remains largely unassessed and therefore unknown, in contrast to well-documented effects on individuals. Addressing this major assessment gap will allow researchers and managers to compare relative effects of multiple threats—including plastic pollution—on marine megafauna populations, thus providing appropriate context for strategic conservation priority-setting.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC

Cnidaria in UK coastal waters: description of spatio-temporal patterns and inter-annual variability

Note that the accepted version of this paper is available on open access in ORE at: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/15245Concern has been expressed over future biogeographical expansion and habitat capitalization by species of the phylum Cnidaria, as this may have negative implications on human activities and ecosystems. There is, however, a paucity of knowledge and understanding of jellyfish ecology, in particular species distribution and seasonality. Recent studies in the UK have principally focused on the Celtic, Irish and North Seas, but all in isolation. In this study we analyse data from a publicly- driven sightings scheme across UK coastal waters (2003–2011; 9 years), with the aim of increasing knowledge on spatial and temporal patterns and trends. We describe inter-annual variability, seasonality and patterns of spatial distribution, and compare these with existing historic literature. Although incidentally-collected data lack quantification of effort, we suggest that with appropriate data management and interpretation, publicly-driven, citizen-science-based, recording schemes can provide for large-scale (spatial and temporal) coverage that would otherwise be logistically and financially unattainable. These schemes may also contribute to baseline data from which future changes in patterns or trends might be identified. We further suggest that findings from such schemes may be strengthened by the inclusion of some element of effort-corrected data collection

An Important Inconsistency at the Heart of the Standard Macroeconomic Model

The standard neoclassical model is the foundation of most mainstream macroeconomics. Its basic structure dominates the analysis of macroeconomic phenomena, the teaching of the subject, and even the formation of economic policy. And of course the modern quantity theory of money and its attendant monetarist prescriptions are grounded in the model's strict separation between real and nominal variables. It is quite curious, therefore, to discover that this model contains an inconsistency in its treatment of the distribution of income which should become apparent if Walrus' law is appropriately articulated. And when this seemingly small discrepancy is corrected, without any change in all of the other assumptions, many of the model's characteristic results disappear. Two instances are of particular interest. First, the strict dichomoty between real variables and nominal variables breaks down, so that, for example, an increase in the exogenously given money supply changes real variables such as household income, consumption, investment, the interest rate, and hence real money demand. Secondly, since the price level depends on the interaction of real money demand and the nominal money supply, and since the former is now affected by the latter, price cahnges are no longer proportional to changes in the money supply. Indeed, we will demonstrate that prices can even fall when the money supply rises. The link to the quantity theory of money, and to monetarism, is severed. Patinkin in his classical work (1965) papers over the cracks in an unsatisfactory adhoc way.