INTERNATIONAL TRADE: HOW IT AFFECTS VIRGINIA AGRICULTURE

International Relations/Trade,

EFFECTS OF TARIFFS AND TECHNICAL BARRIERS ON HIGH- AND LOW-VALUE POULTRY TRADE

A perfectly competitive spatial partial equilibrium model is constructed to evaluate some of the policy effects on world poultry trade. The model simulates the trade flows among six key exporting and importing countries and two aggregate rest-of-world regions. Effects of removal of restrictions based on tariffs, tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) and sanitary regulations are evaluated maintaining a distinction between "high-value" (mostly white meat) and "low-value" (mostly dark meat) poultry products. Results suggest that removal of sanitary barriers alone has relatively little effect compared to removal of tariffs and TRQs, but has more effect if sanitary and other barriers are removed simultaneously. Imposition of new sanitary barriers against US products by Russia would also shift trade flows, with production rising in Brazil.International Relations/Trade,

Economic and environmental effects of border tax adjustments

Taxing imports from regions which are not subject to climate policy and subsidizing exports into these regions have recently been proposed to address presumed negative effects of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) on industry competitiveness and carbon leakage. This paper analyzes the economic and environmental effects of alternative border tax adjustment (BTA) mechanisms using an extended version of the GTAP-E model that explicitly includes domestic trade and transport margins. The BTAs are imposed on regions which have not committed to emission targets under the Kyoto Protocol or which failed to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. The analyses distinguish between effects of the BTAs on the EU15 countries and on the rest of the EU (REU). Likewise, the analyses single out the effects of climate policy with and without BTAs on domestic output changes which are due to changes in import competition and export competitiveness. Implementing a BTA whose power is equal to the percentage change in production costs in the energy-intensive sectors in the EU has different impacts for those sectors in the EU15 countries compared with the REU countries. In the EU15, the BTA effectively neutralizes import competition in the energy-intensive sectors while enhancing the export competitiveness of these sectors. Conversely, in the REU, the BTA is not effective in neutralizing increased import competition or decreased export competitiveness because the majority of trade by the REU is with countries/regions that are not included in the BTA. Overall, implementing a BTA has little effect on the marginal abatement costs of achieving the emission reductions in the Kyoto Protocol and does little in reducing carbon leakage. --

Effects of Tariffs and Sanitary Barriers on High- and Low-Value Poultry Trade

A competitive partial-equilibrium spatial model with heterogeneous goods is constructed to evaluate effects of the removal of tariffs, tariff-rate quotas, and sanitary regulations on world poultry trade. The model distinguishes between "highvalue" (mostly white meat) and "low-value" (mostly dark meat) poultry products and simulates the trade flows among eight exporting and importing countries and regions. Removing all barriers simultaneously has a larger impact on trade than removing only tariffs and tariff-rate quotas. Imposition of sanitary barriers against U.S. products by Russia shifts trade flows, but does not have large net impacts on U.S. producers.poultry trade, sanitary barriers, tariffs, Agricultural and Food Policy,

Linking Risk and Economic Assessments in the Analysis of Plant Pest Regulations: The Case of U.S. Imports of Mexican Avocados

Risk and Uncertainty,

NEW ESTIMATES OF WELFARE AND CONSUMER LOSSES IN U.S. FOOD MANUFACTURING

In the past 15 years, industrial-organization economists have significantly expanded the range of algorithms for calculating welfare losses due to imperfect competition. We compare eleven empirical estimates of economic losses due to market power in 47 U.S. food manufacturing industries, almost all of them previously unpublished. Each of the studies incorporate different theoretical assumptions about demand conditions, supply conditions, or industry pricing behavior; or they utilize various data sources, time periods, and assumptions about the proper competitive benchmark. The estimates of average allocative losses due imperfect competition range from 0.2 percent to an impossibly high 289 percent of industry output; consumer losses range from 6.0 percent to 816 percent. However, there is a high degree of congruence in the rankings of economic losses due to market power. Hence, from the perspective of antitrust enforcement, the choice of industry targets has not been greatly altered by advances in estimation techniques.Agribusiness,

Final Report: Anchorage Disproportionate Minority Contact Study

This project examined disproportionate minority contact in Anchorage, Alaska. It was designed to provide a more nuanced understanding of disproportionate minority contact at the referral stage (when law enforcement officers refer youth to the Alaska Division of Juvenile Justice). To do so, we relied on community involvement and utilized different statistical techniques to examine the geography and development of disproportionate minority contact. Researchers partnered with practitioners from the Anchorage Disproportionate Minority Contact Initiative to structure the research process and to interpret and disseminate results. Geographic analyses were conducted to examine where the highest levels of disproportionate minority contact were occurring and longitudinal analyses were conducted to examine at what age disproportionate minority contact began. These analyses provided an understanding of disproportionate minority contact that was obscured when examining relative rate indices. Geographic analyses, for example, revealed high levels of disproportionate minority contact for Pacific youth (a group that would have traditionally been ignored because of its ‘small population’). Longitudinal analyses revealed that disproportionate minority contact began at age 13. Although relative rate indices are useful to identify broad patterns in disproportionate minority contact, they are less useful to drive action. We overcame this limitation with strong community partnerships and different statistical methods for disproportionate minority contact research. In the end, practitioners and researchers used data and research to develop strategic plans to reduce disproportionate minority contact.National Institute of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, U.S. Department of Justice. Grant No. 2005-IJ-CX-0013I. Disproportionate Minority Contact Table 1. Summary of National Relative Rate Indices, 2005 Figure 1. National Relative Rate Indices for Arrest Stage: 1990-2005 Figure 2. National Relative Rate Indices for Referral Stage: 1990-2005 Table 2. Summary of Relative Rate Indices for FY05 Table 3. Relative Rate Indices by Race Table 4. Relative Rate Indices by Race, Gender, and Type of Referral / II. Community Involvement Table 5. Strategies and Objectives for Anchorage DMC Initiative / III. Geography of Disproportionate Minority Contact Figure 3. Census Tracts in Municipality of Anchorage Table 6. Composition of Census Tracts by Race Figure 4. EB Rates of Referral by Race Table 7. EB Rates of Referral by Race Figure 5. Relative EB Rate Indices by Race Table 8. Distribution of Relative EB Rate Indices by Race Table 9. Descriptive Statistics for Relative EB Rate Indices by Race Figure 6. Minority Group with Highest Relative EB Rate Index / IV. Development of Disproportionate Minority Contact Table 10. Total Number of Charges for Anchorage Cohort, Age 10-17 Table 11. Age at First Charge for Anchorage Cohort Table 12. Racial Composition of Cohort and Population At-Risk Table 13. Bayesian Information Criterion Statistics Table 14. Predicted Average Referral Rates Table 15. Characteristics of Developmental Trajectories Figure 7. Predicted Average Referral Rates: Five-Group Model Table 16. Demographic Composition of Developmental Trajectories Figure 8. Predicted Group Membership Probabilities by Rac

MARKET-STRUCTURE DETERMINANTS OF NATIONAL BRAND-PRIVATE LABEL PRICE DIFFERENCES OF MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS

This paper estimates the relationships between market structure and the Lerner index of monopoly constructed from price data on processed food products sold through grocery stores. A theoretical model of a differentiated oligopoly specifies two determinants of price-cost margins: the Herfindahl-Hirschman index of seller concentration adjusted for the elasticity of demand and the industry advertising-to-sales ratio. The results indicate that the three principal determinants of price-cost margin variation, in order of their impacts, are: advertising intensity, elasticity of demand, and concentration. Previous structure-performance studies that did not incorporate the elasticity of demand were probably misspecified.Agribusiness, Demand and Price Analysis,