Understanding the U.S. Export Boom

U.S. exports grew at a rate of 8.2% per year from 1987-1994, far faster than the economy as a whole or even the manufacturing sector. This paper examines the source of this export boom and argues that the boom itself has been less remarkable for the rate of growth of exports than for the striking increase in export intensity. This increase in export intensity has occurred both in the aggregate and for individual plants across a wide range of industries. Competing explanations for the rise in exports are tested with a comprehensive plant level data set. Changes in exchange rates and rises in foreign income are the dominant sources for the export increase, while productivity increases in U.S. plants play a relatively small role. The results suggest that slower growth rates of U.S. trading partners and an appreciation of the dollar will have strong negative effects on the growth rate of U.S. manufacturing exports.

Who Dies? International Trade, Market Structure, and Industrial Restructuring

This paper examines the role of changing factor endowments in the growth and decline of industries and regions. The implications of an endowment-based Heckscher-Ohlin trade model for plant entry and exit are tested on 20 years of data for the entire US manufacturing sector. The trade model provides predictions for which industries will see growth through the positive net entry of plants. A multi-region version of the same model has predictions for which regions will see high turnover and net entry of plants. In a country such as the U.S. that is augmenting both its physical and human capital, the least capital-intensive, least skill-intensive industries are correctly predicted to have the lowest rate of net entry. In addition, increases in regional capital and skill intensity are associated with higher probabilities of shutdown, especially for plants in industries with low initial capital and skill intensities.

Procedural justice in Alternative Dispute Resolution: Fairness judgments among users of Financial Ombudsman services in Germany and the United Kingdom

This article uses the lens of procedural justice theory to explore peoples’ experiences of an alternative dispute resolution (ADR) model: ombudsman services. We focus on two specific services that deal with complaints about financial services in Germany and the UK. Using and expanding upon procedural justice theory we ask two key questions: is the complaints process more important than its outcome; and does the importance of process and outcome vary between countries? In both countries we find a strong association between perceptions of procedural justice and outcomes such as overall perceptions of fairness, confidence in the ombudsman service, and decision acceptance. Against expectations, these associations are broadly invariant across the German and UK samples; but, despite this, all else equal German respondents expressed consistently more positive views. Our data add some nuance to the existing literature on procedural justice and suggest that the national context also plays a role in people’s decision-acceptance of ombudsmen. We suggest that national legal cultures provide for a framework of rules that guide people’s perceptions and behaviors in legal, quasi-legal and related environments

Police legitimacy among immigrants in Europe: Institutional frames and group position

Recent research has begun to explore the extent to which factors beyond behaviour and performance shape the empirical legitimacy of the police. In this paper, data from the European Social Survey are used to explore the association between immigration and legitimacy. Starting from the assumption that police legitimacy will vary between immigrant and non-immigrant populations, we consider three distinct sets of variable that might explain such variation: contact with the police, group position and the change in frames of reference that the act of migration engenders. Findings suggest, first, that variables from all three groups predict legitimacy, with police contact emerging as the most important. Second, conditional on these factors there is no difference in the views of recent immigrants and their non-immigrant peers. However, other groups of immigrants – particularly those who migrated as children – tend to grant the police somewhat less legitimacy

Volume-duration growth curves for flood estimation in permeable catchments

International audienceThe volume and duration of groundwater discharge following extreme winter recharge events in permeable catchments can often be more disruptive than the peak discharge. An estimation procedure for annual maxima flood series in permeable catchments is extended to annual flood volumes for different durations. Growth factors for durations of 1 to 30 days and return periods of up to 250 years are derived for a sample of 12 permeable catchments in the UK. In most cases, adjusting the growth curves for ?non-flood' years has only a small effect and L-moment parameters show little change with duration. L-CV and L-skewness are highly correlated for the sample of Chalk catchments. Keywords: Chalk, groundwater flood estimation</p

Falling Trade Costs, Heterogeneous Firms, and Industry Dynamics

This paper examines the response of industries and firms to changes in trade costs. Several new firm-level models of international trade with heterogeneous firms predict that industry productivity will rise as trade costs fall due to the reallocation of activity across plants within an industry. Using disaggregated U.S. import data, we create a new measure of trade costs over time and industries. As the models predict, productivity growth is faster in industries with falling trade costs. We also find evidence supporting the major hypotheses of the heterogenous-firm models. Plants in industries with falling trade costs are more likely to die or become exporters. Existing exporters increase their shipments abroad. The results do not apply equally across all sectors but are strongest for industries most likely to be producing horizontally-differentiated tradeable goods.

Transfer Pricing by U.S.-Based Multinational Firms

This paper examines how prices set by multinational firms vary across arm's-length and related-party customers. Comparing prices within firms, products, destination countries, modes of transport and month, we find that the prices U.S. exporters set for their arm's-length customers are substantially larger than the prices recorded for related-parties. This price wedge is smaller for commodities than for differentiated goods, is increasing in firm size and firm export share, and is greater for goods sent to countries with lower corporate tax rates and higher tariffs. We also find that changes in exchange rates have differential effects on arm's-length and related-party prices; an appreciation of the dollar reduces the difference between the prices.

Falling Trade Costs, Heterogeneous Firms and Industry Dynamics

This paper examines the response of industries and firms to changes in trade costs. Several new firm-level models of international trade with heterogeneous firms predict that industry productivity will rise as trade costs fall due to the reallocation of activity across plants within an industry. Using disaggregated U.S. import data, we create a new measure of trade costs over time and industries. As the models predict, productivity growth is faster in industries with falling trade costs. We also find evidence supporting the major hypotheses of the heterogeneous-firm models. Plants in industries with falling trade costs are more likely to die or become exporters. Existing exporters increase their shipments abroad. The results do not apply equally across all sectors but are strongest for industries most likely to be producing horizontally-differentiated tradeable goods.Plant deaths, survival, exit, exports, employment, tariffs, freight costs, transport costs

Survival of the Best Fit: Exposure to Low-Wage Countries and the (Uneven) Growth of U.S. Manufacturing Plants

This paper examines the role of international trade in the reallocation of U.S. manufacturing activity within and across industries from 1977 to 1997. It introduces a new measure of industry exposure to international trade, motivated by the Heckscher-Ohlin model, which focuses on where imports originate rather than their overall level. Results demonstrate that plant survival as well as output and employment growth are negatively associated with the share of industry imports sourced from the world ¿s lowest-wage countries. Within industries, activity is reallocated towards capital- intensive plants. Plants are also more likely to alter their product mix (i.e. switch industries) in response to trade with low-wage countries. Plants altering their product mix switch to industries that are more capital and skill- intensive.Low-Wage Country Import Competition, Heckscher-Ohlin, Manufacturing Plant