Using a nested single-model large ensemble to assess the internal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its climatic implications for central Europe

Central European weather and climate are closely related to atmospheric mass advection triggered by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is a relevant index for quantifying internal climate variability on multi-annual timescales. It remains unclear, however, how large-scale circulation variability affects local climate characteristics when downscaled using a regional climate model. In this study, 50 members of a single-model initial-condition large ensemble (LE) of a nested regional climate model are analyzed for a NAO-climate relationship. The overall goal of the study is to assess whether the range of NAO internal variability is represented consistently between the driving global climate model (GCM;the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 - CanESM2) and the nested regional climate model (RCM;the Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5 - CRCM5). Responses of mean surface air temperature and total precipitation to changes in the NAO index value are examined in a central European domain in both CanESM2-LE and CRCM5-LE via Pearson correlation coefficients and the change per unit index change for historical (1981-2010) and future (2070-2099) winters. Results show that statistically robust NAO patterns are found in the CanESM2-LE under current forcing conditions. NAO flow pattern reproductions in the CanESM2-LE trigger responses in the high-resolution CRCM5-LE that are comparable to reanalysis data. NAO-response relationships weaken in the future period, but their intermember spread shows no significant change. The results stress the value of single-model ensembles for the evaluation of internal variability by pointing out the large differences of NAO-response relationships among individual members. They also strengthen the validity of the nested ensemble for further impact modeling using RCM data only, since important large-scale teleconnections present in the driving data propagate properly to the fine-scale dynamics in the RCM

Wandel der Familie. Literaturstudie

Böhnisch T, Maihofer A, Wolf A. Wandel der Familie. Literaturstudie. Edition Arbeitspapier. Vol 48. Düsseldorf: Hans Böckler Stiftung. Mitbestimmungs-, Forschungs- und Studienförderwerk des DGB; 2001

Inter-seasonal connection of typical European heatwave patterns to soil moisture

Abstract Although prolonged heat periods have become a recurring feature of European climate, little knowledge is available on dominant spatial patterns of heatwaves and their influence on moisture-related processes. Increased knowledge will help to improve heatwave and drought prediction and mitigation. This study uses hierarchical agglomerative clustering to derive nine dominating spatial heatwave patterns from a 50-member regional climate model (Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5, CRCM5-LE). The heatwave patterns correspond well with clusters derived from an observational data set (E-OBS) and with extreme historical heatwave events. Moreover, we analyse the occurrence of heatwaves in the identified spatial patterns regarding a soil moisture deficit present before and after the event. We show that negative soil moisture anomalies in the preceding winter/spring (JFMA) can serve as a predictor for heatwaves in South Europe. For North Europe, we find a negative correlation between the number of heatwave days in summer and autumn (OND) soil moisture content