Modeling Uncertainty in Seismic Stability and Earthquake Induced Displacement of Earth Slopes Under Short Term Conditions

Different models were developed for evaluating the probabilistic three-dimensional (3-D) stability analysis of earth slopes and embankments under earthquake loading using both the safety factor and the displacement criteria of slope failure. These models are formulated and incorporated within a computer program (PTDDSSA). The probabilistic models evaluate the probability of failure under seismic loading considering the different sources of uncertainties involved in the problem. A sensitivity analysis was conducted on the different parameters involved in the developed models by applying those models to a well-known landslides (Congress Street) under different levels of seismic hazard. The hypocentral distance and earthquake magnitude were found to have major influence on the earthquake induced displacement, probability of failure (i.e. probability of allowable displacement exceedance), and dynamic 2-D and 3-D safety factors