Out of Sample Estimation for Small Areas using Area Level Data

A Fay-Herriot type model with independent area effects is often assumed when small area estimates based on area level data are required. However, under this approach out of sample areas are limited to synthetic estimates. In this paper we relax the independent area effects assumption, allowing area random effects to be spatially correlated. Empirical best linear unbiased predictors are then developed for areas in sample as well as those that are not in sample, with variance components estimated via maximum likelihood and residual (restricted) maximum likelihood. An expression for the mean cross-product error (MCPE) matrix of the small area estimators is derived, as is an estimator of this matrix. The estimation approach described in the paper is then evaluated by a simulation study, which compares the new method with other methods of small area estimation for this situation

Impact of national policies on the microbial aetiology of surgical site infections in acute NHS hospitals in England: analysis of trends between 2000 and 2013 using multi-centre prospective cohort data

Our study aimed to evaluate changes in the epidemiology of pathogens causing surgical site infections (SSIs) in England between 2000 and 2013 in the context of intensified national interventions to reduce healthcare-associated infections introduced since 2006. National prospective surveillance data on target surgical procedures were used for this study. Data on causative organism were available for 72% of inpatient-detected SSIs meeting the standard case definitions for superficial, deep and organ-space infections (9767/13 531) which were analysed for trends. A multivariable logistic linear mixed model with hospital random effects was fitted to evaluate trends by pathogen. Staphylococcus aureus was the predominant cause of SSI between 2000 (41%) and 2009 (24%), decreasing from 2006 onwards reaching 16% in 2013. Data for 2005–2013 showed that the odds of SSI caused by S. aureus decreased significantly by 14% per year [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0·86, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·83–0·89] driven by significant decreases in methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) (aOR 0·71, 95% CI 0·68–0·75). However a small significant increase in methicillin-sensitive S. aureus was identified (aOR 1·06, 95% CI 1·02–1·10). Enterobacteriaceae were stable during 2000–2007 (12% of cases overall), increasing from 2008 (18%) onwards, being present in 25% of cases in 2013; the model supported these increasing trends during 2007–2013 (aOR 1·12, 95% CI 1·07–1·18). The decreasing trends in S. aureus SSIs from 2006 and the increases in Enterobacteriaceae SSIs from 2008 may be related to intensified national efforts targeted at reducing MRSA bacteraemia combined with changes in antibiotic use aimed at controlling C. difficile infections

Pre-notification and reminder SMS text messages with behaviourally informed invitation letters to improve uptake of NHS Health Checks: a factorial randomised controlled trial

Background The NHS Health Check (NHS HC) is a cardiovascular risk assessment to prevent cardiovascular disease. Public Health England (PHE) wants to increase uptake. Methods We explored the impact of behaviourally informed invitation letters and pre-notification and reminder SMS on uptake of NHS HCs. Patients at 28 General Practices in the London Borough of Southwark who were eligible to receive an NHS HC between 1st November 2013 and 31st December 2014 were included. A double-blind randomised controlled trial with a mixed 2 (pre-notification SMS – yes or no) × 4 (letter – national template control, open-ended, time-limited, social norm) × 2 (reminder SMS – yes or no) factorial design was used. The open-ended letter used simplification, behavioural instruction and a personalised planning prompt for patients to record the date and time of their NHS HC. The time-limited letter was similar but stated the NHS HC was due in a named forthcoming month. The social norms letter was similar to the open-ended letter but included a descriptive social norms message and testimonials from local residents and no planning prompt. The outcome measure was attendance at an NHS HC. Results Data for 12, 244 invites were analysed. Uptake increased in almost all letter and SMS combinations compared to the control letter without SMS (Uptake 18%), with increases of up to 12 percentage points for the time-limited letter with pre-notification and reminder (Uptake 30%; Adjusted Odds Ratio AOR 1.86; 95% CI 1.45–2.83; p < 0.00); 10 percentage points for the open-ended letter with reminder (Uptake 27%; AOR 1.68; 95% CI 1.31–2.17; p < 0.00) and a 9 percentage point increase using the time-limited letter with reminder (Uptake 27%; AOR 1.61; 95% CI 1.25–2.10; p < 0.00). The reminder SMS increased uptake for all intervention letters. The pre-notification did not add to this effect. Conclusions This large randomised controlled trial adds support to the evidence that small, low cost behaviourally informed changes to letter-based invitations can increase uptake of NHS HCs. It also provides novel evidence on the effect of SMS reminders and pre-notification on NHS HC attendance

Improving management of respiratory tract infections in community pharmacies and promoting antimicrobial stewardship: a cluster randomised control trial with a self-report behavioural questionnaire and process evaluation

In England, 81% of all antibiotic prescriptions originate in primary care/community settings, of which up to 20% are thought to be inappropriate. Community pharmacies are often the first point of community contact for patients with suspected infections; providing an opportunity for community pharmacy teams to promote antimicrobial stewardship (AMS). The objective of the study was to improve the management of infections and antimicrobial stewardship in community pharmacies. The study methodology included a non-blinded cluster randomised control trial with pharmacy staff in 272 community pharmacies in England. The intervention arm received an AMS webinar and a patient facing respiratory tract infection (RTI) leaflet (TARGET TYI-RTI) for use in everyday practice for four weeks. The control arm received a webinar on how to participate in the study. The primary outcome was self-reported referrals to general practitioners (GPs). The secondary outcomes were; provision of self-care advice/ written information to patients, referrals to pharmacists, sign-posting to non-prescription medicines and common barriers and facilitators to advice-giving in community pharmacies. Ethics approval was granted by the Public Health England Research Ethics and Governance Group. 66.91% (182 of 272) of pharmacies provided 3649 patient consultation data reports across both arms. Use of the leaflet was associated with a lower likelihood of referrals to GPs for certain RTIs (p < 0.05) and a more frequent provision of self-care advice than the control (p = 0.06). Opportunities to deliver self-care advice were limited due to lack of time. Pharmacy staff had good motivation and capability for managing self-limiting infections but the opportunity to do so was a perceived barrier. Use of the TARGET leaflet facilitated pharmacy staff to give more self-care advice and decreased referrals to GPs

Can uptake of childhood influenza immunisation through schools and GP practices be increased through behaviourally-informed invitation letters and reminders: two pragmatic randomized controlled trials

Background: The UK is rolling out a national childhood influenza immunisation programme for children, delivered through primary care and schools. Behaviourally-informed letters and reminders have been successful at increasing uptake of other public health interventions. Therefore, we investigated the effects of a behaviourally-informed letter on uptake of the vaccine at GP practices, and of a letter and a reminder (SMS/ email) on uptake at schools. Methods and results: Study 1 was a cluster-randomised parallel trial of 21,786 two- and three-year olds in 250 GP practices, conducted during flu season (September to January inclusive) 2016/7. The intervention was a centrally-sent behaviourally-informed invitation letter, control was usual care. The proportion of two- and three-year olds in each practice who received a vaccination by 31st January 2017 was 23.4% in the control group compared to 37.1% in the intervention group (OR = 1.93; 95% CI = 1.82, 2.05, p < 0.001). Study 2 was a 2 (behavioural letter vs standard letter) × 2 (reminder vs no reminder) factorial trial of 1108 primary schools which included 3010 school years 1–3. Letters were sent to parents from providers, and reminders sent to parents from the schools. In the standard-letter-no-reminder arm, an average of 61.6% of eligible children in each school year were vaccinated, compared to 61.9% in the behavioural-letter-no-reminder arm, 63.5% in the standard-letter-plus-reminder arm, and 62.9% in the behavioural-letter-plus reminder condition, F(3, 2990) = 2.68, p = 0.046. In a multi-level model, with demographic variables as fixed effects, the proportion of eligible students in the school year who were vaccinated increased with the reminder, β = 0.086 (0.041), p < 0.036, but there was no effect of the letter nor any interaction effect. Conclusion: Sending a behaviourally informed invitation letter can increase uptake of childhood influenza vaccines at the GP surgery compared to usual practice. A reminder SMS or email can increase uptake of the influenza vaccine in schools, but the effect size was minimal. Trial registration: Study 1: Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02921633. Study 2: Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02883972

Encouraging healthier grocery purchases online: a randomised controlled trial and lessons learned

Online supermarket platforms present an opportunity for encouraging healthier consumer purchases. A parallel, double-blind randomised controlled trial tested whether promoting healthier products (e.g. lower fat and lower calorie) on the Sainsbury's online supermarket platform would increase purchases of those products. Participants were Nectar loyalty membership scheme cardholders who shopped online with Sainsbury's between 20th September and 10th October 2017. Intervention arm customers saw advertisement banners and recipe ingredient lists containing healthier versions of the products presented in control arm banners and ingredient lists. The primary outcome measure was purchases of healthier products. Additional outcome measures were banner clicks, purchases of standard products, overall purchases and energy (kcal) purchased. Sample sizes were small due to customers navigating the website differently than expected. The intervention encouraged purchases of some promoted healthier products (spaghetti [B = 2.10, p < 0.001], spaghetti sauce [B = 2.06, p < 0.001], spaghetti cheese [B = 2.45, p = 0.001], sour cream [B = 2.52, p < 0.001], fajita wraps [B = 2.10, p < 0.001], fajita cheese [B = 1.19, p < 0.001], bakery aisle products (B = 3.05, p = 0.003) and cola aisle products [B = 0.97, p < 0.002]) but not others (spaghetti mince, or products in the yogurt and ice cream aisles). There was little evidence of effects on banner clicks and energy purchased. Small sample sizes may affect the robustness of these findings. We discuss the benefits of collaborating to share expertise and implement a trial in a live commercial environment, alongside key learnings for future collaborative research in similar contexts

The Use of Pb Isotope Ratios to Determine Environmental Sources of High Blood Pb Concentrations in Children: A Feasibility Study in Georgia

The incidence of lead (Pb) poisoning in children in Georgia has been identified as a major health concern, with a recent national survey identifying that 41% of children aged 2–7 years had blood lead concentrations (BLCs) greater than the blood lead reference value (BLRV) of ≥5 µg dL−1. This study collected samples of blood, spices, paint, soil, dust, flour, tea, toys, milk, and water from 36 households in Georgia where a child had previously been identified as having a BLC > BLRV. The Pb concentrations of these samples were determined and compared to Georgian reference values. Samples from 3 households were analysed for their Pb isotope composition. The Pb isotope composition of the environmental and blood samples were compared to identify the most likely source(s) of Pb exposure. This approach identified that some spice and dust samples were the likely sources of Pb in the blood in these cases. Importantly, some soil, paint, and dust sources with high Pb concentrations could be discounted as contributing to blood Pb based on their distinct isotope composition. The data presented demonstrate the significant contribution that Pb surveillance and Pb isotope ratio analyses can make to managing Pb exposure in regions where high BLCs are identified

Mixed-Method Evaluation of a Community Pharmacy Antimicrobial Stewardship Intervention (PAMSI)

The community pharmacy antimicrobial stewardship intervention (PAMSI) is multi-faceted and underpinned by behavioural science, consisting of the TARGET Antibiotic Checklist, staff e-Learning, and patient-facing materials. This mixed-method study evaluated the effect of PAMSI on community pharmacy staffs' self-reported antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) behaviours. Data collection included staff pre- and post-intervention questionnaires, qualitative interviews, and TARGET Antibiotic Checklists. Quantitative data were analysed by a multivariate ordinal linear mixed effect model; qualitative data were analysed thematically. A total of 101 staff participated from 66 pharmacies, and six completed semi-structured interviews. The statistical model indicated very strong evidence ( < 0.001) that post-intervention, staff increased their antibiotic appropriateness checks and patient advice, covering antibiotic adherence, antibiotic resistance, infection self-care, and safety-netting. Staff reported feeling empowered to query antibiotic appropriateness with prescribing clinicians. The TARGET Antibiotic Checklist was completed with 2043 patients. Topics patients identified as requiring advice from the pharmacy team included symptom duration, alcohol and food consumption guidance, antibiotic side-effects, and returning unused antibiotics to pharmacies. Pharmacy staff acknowledged the need for improved communication across the primary care pathway to optimise antimicrobial use, and PAMSI has potential to support this ambition if implemented nationally. To support patients not attending a pharmacy in person, an online information tool will be developed

Challenges of investigating a large food-borne norovirus outbreak across all branches of a restaurant group in the United Kingdom, October 2016

During October and November 2016, over 1,000 customers and staff reported gastroenteritis after eating at all 23 branches of a restaurant group in the United Kingdom. The outbreak coincided with a new menu launch and norovirus was identified as the causative agent. We conducted four retrospective cohort studies; one among all restaurant staff and three in customers at four branches. We investigated the dishes consumed, reviewed recipes, interviewed chefs and inspected restaurants to identify common ingredients and preparation methods for implicated dishes. Investigations were complicated by three public health agencies concurrently conducting multiple analytical studies, the complex menu with many shared constituent ingredients and the high media attention. The likely source was a contaminated batch of a nationally distributed ingredient, but analytical studies were unable to implicate a single ingredient. The most likely vehicle was a new chipotle chilli product imported from outside the European Union, that was used uncooked in the implicated dishes. This outbreak exemplifies the possibility of rapid spread of infectious agents within a restaurant supply chain, following introduction of a contaminated ingredient. It underlines the importance of appropriate risk assessments and control measures being in place, particularly for new ingredients and ready-to-eat foods