On the causal interpretation of rate-change methods:the prior event rate ratio and rate difference

A growing number of studies use data before and after treatment initiation in groups exposed to different treatment strategies to estimate "causal effects" using a ratio measure called the prior event rate ratio (PERR). Here, we offer a causal interpretation for PERR and its additive scale analog, the prior event rate difference (PERD). We show that causal interpretation of these measures requires untestable rate-change assumptions about the relationship between (1) the change of the counterfactual ratebefore and after treatment initiation in the treated group under hypothetical intervention to implement the control treatment; and (2) the change of the factual rate before and after treatment initiation in the control group. The rate-change assumption is on the multiplicative scale for PERR, but on the additive scale for PERD; the two assumptions hold simultaneously under testable, but unlikely, conditions. Even if investigators can pick the most appropriate scale, the relevant rate-change assumption may not hold exactly, so we describe sensitivity analysis methods to examine how assumption violations of different magnitudes would affect study results. We illustrate the methods using data from a published study of proton pump inhibitors and pneumonia

The Effect of Individual Movements and Interventions on the Spread of Influenza in Long-Term Care Facilities

Background. Nosocomial influenza poses a serious risk among residents of long-term care facilities (LTCFs). Objective. We sought to evaluate the effect of resident and staff movements and contact patterns on the outcomes of various intervention strategies for influenza control in an LTCF. Methods. We collected contact frequency data in Canada's largest veterans' LTCF by enroling residents and staff into a study that tracked their movements through wireless tags and signal receivers. We analyzed and fitted the data to an agent-based simulation model of influenza infection, and performed Monte-Carlo simulations to evaluate the benefit of antiviral prophylaxis and patient isolation added to standard (baseline) infection control practice (i.e., vaccination of residents and staff, plus antiviral treatment of residents with symptomatic infection). Results. We calibrated the model to attack rates of 20%, 40%, and 60% for the baseline scenario. For data-driven movements, we found that the largest reduction in attack rates (12.5% to 27%; ANOVA P 0.2) among residents. In contrast, parameterizing the model with random movements yielded different results, suggesting that the highest benefit was achieved through patient isolation (69.6% to 79.6%; ANOVA P <0.001) while the additional benefit of prophylaxis was negligible in reducing the cumulative number of infections. Conclusions. Our study revealed a highly structured contact and movement patterns within the LTCF. Accounting for this structureinstead of assuming randomnessin decision analytic methods can result in substantially different predictions

Association between dementia and psychiatric disorders in long-term care residents:An observational clinical study

We examine the relationship between dementia and psychiatric disorder diagnoses among long-term care residents in nursing homes across the state of Rhode Island (RI), USA.Observational clinical study.Two hundred fifty-five residents with and without the diagnosis of dementia were included in this study.Prevalence analysis was used to elucidate information on psychiatric disorders in the overall cohort, and among residents with dementia. Questions from the quality of life questionnaire (EQ-5D-3L) that provides information on self-care, anxiety/depression, and resident's view of how healthy they are, were used to evaluate their association with dementia and psychiatric disorders. A logistic regression analysis was conducted to understand the relationship between dementia and mental illness diagnoses in long-term care facilities. Finally, a subgroup logistic regression analysis was performed for residents with Alzheimer disease.65.1% of all residents suffered from at least 1 psychiatric disorder. Anxiety was the most common diagnosis (36.5%), followed by depression (28.6%), and insomnia (14.9%). There was a positive and statistically significant association between any mental illness diagnosis and dementia (adjusted OR: 3.73; 95% CI: 1.34-10.41). Bipolar disorder and insomnia were negatively and statistically significantly associated with dementia (adjusted OR: 0.17; 95% CI: 0.03-0.89 AND adjusted OR: 0.39; 95% CI: 0.16-0.96 respectively). Age and COPD were also statistically associated with dementia (adjusted OR: 1.07; 95% CI: 1.03-1.11 AND adjusted OR: 0.28, 95% CI: 0.12-0.66). Alzheimer disease was positively and significantly associated with the diagnosis of any mental illness (adjusted OR: 3.77; 95% CI: 1.17-12.20).We studied the relationship between dementia and diagnoses of psychiatric disorders present in long-term care residents. We found that residents with a diagnosis of dementia were more likely to suffer from at least 1 psychiatric disorder. Further work is needed to establish the neuropathophysiological relationship between psychiatric disorders and dementia

Economic Assessment of High-Dose Versus Adjuvanted Influenza Vaccine:An Evaluation of Hospitalization Costs Based on a Cohort Study

Two influenza vaccines are licensed in the U.S. exclusively for the 65 years and older population: a trivalent inactivated high-dose influenza vaccine (HD-IIV3) and a trivalent inactivated adjuvanted influenza vaccine (aIIV3). In a recent publication, we estimated a relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of HD-IIV3 vs. aIIV3 of 12% (95% CI: 3.3–20%) for influenza-related hospitalizations using a retrospective study design, but did not report the number of prevented hospitalizations nor the associated avoided cost. In this paper we report estimations for both. Methods: Leveraging the rVE of a cohort study over two influenza seasons (2016/17 and 2017/18), we collected cost data for healthcare provided to the same study population. Vaccine costs were obtained from the Medicare pricing schedule. Our economic assessment compared cost of vaccination and hospital care for patients experiencing acute respiratory or cardiovascular illness. Results: We analyzed 1.9 million HD-IIV3 and 223,793 aIIV3 recipients. Average vaccine list prices were $46.23 for HD-IIV3 and$48.26 for aIIV3. The hospitalization rates for respiratory disease in HD-IIV3 and aIIV3 recipients were 187 (95% CI: 185–189) and 212 (195–231) per 10,000 persons-years, respectively. Attributing the average cost per hospitalization of $12,652 ($12,214–$13,090) to the difference in hospitalization rates, we estimate net savings of HD-IIV3 to be$34 ($10–$62) per recipient. Conclusion: Pooled over two predominantly A/H3N2 respiratory seasons, vaccination with HD-IIV3 was associated with lower hospitalization rates and associated costs compared to aIIV3 in senior members of a large national managed health care company in the U.S. Reduced hospitalizations affect healthcare utilization overall, and therefore other costly health outcomes

Individual movements and contact patterns in a Canadian long-term care facility

Contact networks of individuals in healthcare facilities are poorly understood, largely due to the lack of spatio-temporal movement data. A better understanding of such networks of interactions can help improve disease control strategies for nosocomial outbreaks. We sought to determine the spatio-temporal patterns of interactions between individuals using movement data collected in the largest veterans long-term care facility in Canada. We processed close-range contact data generated by the exchange of ultra-low-power radio signals, in a prescribed proximity, between wireless sensors worn by the participants over a two-week period. Statistical analyses of contact and movement data were conducted. We found a clear dichotomy in the contact network and movement patterns between residents and healthcare workers (HCWs) in this facility. Overall, residents tend to have significantly more distinct contacts with the mean of 17.3 (s.d. 3.6) contacts, versus 3.5 (s.d. 2.3) for HCWs (p-value &lt; 10–12), for a longer duration of time (with mean contact duration of 8 minutes for resident-resident pair versus 4.6 minutes for HCW-resident pair) while being less mobile than HCWs. Analysis of movement data and clustering coefficient of the hourly aggregated network indicates that the contact network is loosely connected (mean clustering coefficient: 0.25, interquartile range 0–0.40), while being highly structured. Our findings bring quantitative insights regarding the contact network and movements in a long-term care facility, which are highly relevant to infer direct human-to-human and indirect (i.e., via the environment) disease transmission processes. This data-driven quantification is essential for validating disease dynamic models, as well as decision analytic methods to inform control strategies for nosocomial infections

Comparative effectiveness of high dose versus adjuvanted influenza vaccine:A retrospective cohort study

Background: Adults 65 years and older (seniors) experience more complications following influenza infection than younger adults. We estimated the relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of a trivalent high dose (HD-IIV3) versus an adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccine (aIIV3) in seniors for respiratory-related hospitalizations. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using claims data from Optum's Clinformatics® Data Mart to compare outcome rates between seniors who received HD-IIV3 versus aIIV3 during the 2016/17 and 2017/18, predominantly A/H3N2 respiratory seasons. Rates were adjusted for demographic characteristics, comorbid conditions, previous influenza vaccination, and geography. We used the previous event rate ratio (PERR) approach to address bias by time-fixed unmeasured confounders. Results: We identified 842,282 HD-IIV3 and 34,157 aIIV3 recipients for the 2016/17 season and 1,058,638 HD-IIV3 and 189,636 aIIV3 recipients for the 2017/18 season. The pooled rVE of HD-IIV3 versus aIIV3 for respiratory-related hospitalizations over both seasons was 12% (95% confidence interval: 3.3%–20%); 13% (−6.4% to 32%) for the 2016/17 season and 12% (2.1%–21%) for the 2017/18 season. Conclusions: Pooled over two predominantly A/H3N2 respiratory seasons, HD-IIV3 was associated with fewer respiratory hospital admissions than aIIV3 in senior members of large national managed health care company in the U.S

Influenza vaccine effectiveness against influenza-associated hospitalization in children:A systematic review and meta-analysis

Vaccination remains the most effective way to prevent influenza infection, albeit vaccine effectiveness (VE) varies by year. Compared to other age groups, children and elderly adults have the highest risk of developing influenza-related complications and requiring hospitalization. During the last years, “test negative design” (TND) studies have been implemented in order to estimate influenza VE. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to summarize the findings of TND studies reporting influenza VE against laboratory-confirmed influenza-related hospitalization in children aged 6 months to 17 years. We searched the PubMed and Embase databases and identified 2615 non-duplicate studies that required detailed review. Among them, 28 met our inclusion criteria and we performed a random-effects meta-analysis using adjusted VE estimates. In our primary analysis, influenza vaccine offered significant protection against any type influenza-related hospitalization (57.48%; 95% CI 49.46–65.49). When we examined influenza VE per type and strain, VE was higher against H1N1 (74.07%; 95% CI: 54.85–93.30) and influenza B (50.87%; 95% CI: 41.75–59.98), and moderate against H3N2 (40.77%; 95% CI: 25.65–55.89). Notably, influenza vaccination offered higher protection in children who were fully vaccinated (61.79%; 95% CI: 54.45–69.13), compared to those who were partially vaccinated (33.91%; 95% CI: 21.12 – 46.69). Also, influenza VE was high in children less than 5 years old (61.71%; 95% CI: 49.29–74.12) as well as in children 6–17 years old (54.37%; 95% CI: 35.14–73.60). In conclusion, in the pediatric population, influenza vaccination offered significant protection against influenza-related hospitalization and complete annual vaccination should be encouraged.</p

Influenza vaccine effectiveness against influenza-associated hospitalization in children:A systematic review and meta-analysis

Vaccination remains the most effective way to prevent influenza infection, albeit vaccine effectiveness (VE) varies by year. Compared to other age groups, children and elderly adults have the highest risk of developing influenza-related complications and requiring hospitalization. During the last years, “test negative design” (TND) studies have been implemented in order to estimate influenza VE. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to summarize the findings of TND studies reporting influenza VE against laboratory-confirmed influenza-related hospitalization in children aged 6 months to 17 years. We searched the PubMed and Embase databases and identified 2615 non-duplicate studies that required detailed review. Among them, 28 met our inclusion criteria and we performed a random-effects meta-analysis using adjusted VE estimates. In our primary analysis, influenza vaccine offered significant protection against any type influenza-related hospitalization (57.48%; 95% CI 49.46–65.49). When we examined influenza VE per type and strain, VE was higher against H1N1 (74.07%; 95% CI: 54.85–93.30) and influenza B (50.87%; 95% CI: 41.75–59.98), and moderate against H3N2 (40.77%; 95% CI: 25.65–55.89). Notably, influenza vaccination offered higher protection in children who were fully vaccinated (61.79%; 95% CI: 54.45–69.13), compared to those who were partially vaccinated (33.91%; 95% CI: 21.12 – 46.69). Also, influenza VE was high in children less than 5 years old (61.71%; 95% CI: 49.29–74.12) as well as in children 6–17 years old (54.37%; 95% CI: 35.14–73.60). In conclusion, in the pediatric population, influenza vaccination offered significant protection against influenza-related hospitalization and complete annual vaccination should be encouraged

Risk factors for pneumonia and influenza hospitalizations in long-term care facility residents:a retrospective cohort study

Abstract Background Older adults who reside in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) are at particularly high risk for infection, morbidity and mortality from pneumonia and influenza (P&I) compared to individuals of younger age and those living outside institutional settings. The risk factors for P&I hospitalizations that are specific to LTCFs remain poorly understood. Our objective was to evaluate the incidence of P&I hospitalization and associated person- and facility-level factors among post-acute (short-stay) and long-term (long-stay) care residents residing in LTCFs from 2013 to 2015. Methods In this retrospective cohort study, we used Medicare administrative claims linked to Minimum Data Set and LTCF-level data to identify short-stay (< 100 days, index = admission date) and long-stay (100+ days, index = day 100) residents who were followed from the index date until the first of hospitalization, LTCF discharge, Medicare disenrollment, or death. We measured incidence rates (IRs) for P&I hospitalization per 100,000 person-days, and estimated associations with baseline demographics, geriatric syndromes, clinical characteristics, and medication use using Cox regression models. Results We analyzed data from 1,118,054 short-stay and 593,443 long-stay residents. The crude 30-day IRs (95% CI) of hospitalizations with P&I in the principal position were 26.0 (25.4, 26.6) and 34.5 (33.6, 35.4) among short- and long-stay residents, respectively. The variables associated with P&I varied between short and long-stay residents, and common risk factors included: advanced age (85+ years), admission from an acute hospital, select cardiovascular and respiratory conditions, impaired functional status, and receipt of antibiotics or Beers criteria medications. Facility staffing and care quality measures were important risk factors among long-stay residents but not in short-stay residents. Conclusions Short-stay residents had lower crude 30- and 90-day incidence rates of P&I hospitalizations than long-stay LTCF residents. Differences in risk factors for P&I between short- and long-stay populations suggest the importance of considering distinct profiles of post-acute and long-term care residents in infection prevention and control strategies in LTCFs. These findings can help clinicians target interventions to subgroups of LTCF residents at highest P&I risk

The process of obtaining informed consent to research in long term care facilities (LTCFs):An Observational Clinical Study

We examined the process of obtaining informed consent (IC) for clinical research purposes in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) in Rhode Island (RI), USA. We assessed factors that were associated with resident ability to consent, such as Brief Interview for Mental Status scores. We used a self-administered questionnaire to further understand the effect of LTCF staff evaluation of ability to consent on residents' autonomy and control over their medical decision making.Observational clinical studyLong-term care setting.LTCF personnel provided us with residents' names, as well as their professional assessment of resident ability to consent. We used Brief Interview for Mental Status (BIMS) scores to assess the cognitive capacity of all residents to assess, and compare it to the assessment provided by LTCF personnel. A logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the relationship between LTCF assessment of resident ability to consent and BIMS score or confirmed diagnosis of dementia as seen from residents' medical charts. A self-administered questionnaire was filled out by the personnel of 10 LTCFs across RI, USA.LTCF personnel in 9 out of 10 recruited facilities reported that their assessment of resident ability to consent was based on subjective assessment of the resident as alert and oriented. There was a statistically significant relationship between the LTCF assessment of resident ability to consent and previously diagnosed dementia (OR: 0.211, 95% CI 0.107-0.415). Therefore, as BIMS scores increased, the likelihood that the resident would be deemed able to consent by LTCF personnel also increased. Furthermore, there was a statistically significant relationship between LTCF assessment of resident ability to consent and BIMS scores (OR: 1.430, 95% CI 1.274-1.605).There is no standard on obtaining IC for research studies conducted in LTCFs. We recommend that standardizing the process of obtaining IC in LTCFs can enhance the ability to perform research with LTCF residents