Estimating the total number of residential fire-related incidents and underreported residential fire incidents in New South Wales, Australia by using linked administrative data

The rate of fires, and particularly residential fires, is a serious concern in industrialized countries. However, there is considerable uncertainty regarding the reported numbers of residential fire incidents as official figures are based on fires reported to fire response agencies only. This population-based study aims to quantify the total number of residential fire incidents regardless of reporting status. The cohort comprised linked person-level data from Fire and Rescue New South Wales (FRNSW) and health system and death records. It included all persons residing at a residential address in New South Wales, Australia, that experienced a fire between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2014. The capture-recapture method was used to estimate the underreporting number of residential fire-related incidents. Over the study period, 43,707 residential fire incidents were reported to FRNSW, and there were 2795 residential fire-related health service utilizations, of which 2380 were not reported. Using the capture-recapture method, the total number of residential fire incidents was estimated at 267,815 to 319,719, which is more than six times the official records. This study found that 15% of residential fire incidents that were identified in health administrative dataset were reported. The residential fire incidents that were not reported occurred mainly in socio-economically disadvantaged areas among males and adults

Comparison of causes, characteristics and consequences of residential fires in social and non-social housing dwellings in New South Wales, Australia

There are over 17,000 residential fire incidents in Australia annually, of which 6,500 occur in New South Wales (NSW). The number of state-provided accommodations for those on low incomes (social housing), is over 437,000 in Australia of which 34% are located in NSW. This study compared causes, characteristics and consequences of residential fires in social and non-social housing in NSW, Australia. This population-based study used linked fire brigade and health service data to identify those who experienced a residential fire incident from 2005 to 2014. Over the study period, 43,707 residential fires were reported, of which 5,073 (11.6%) occurred in social housing properties. Fires in social housing were more likely to occur in apartments (RR 1.85, 95%CI 1.75–1.96), caused by matches and lighters (RR 1.62, 95%CI 1.51–1.74) and smokers’ materials (RR 1.51, 95%CI 1.34 – 1.71). The risk of health service utilisation or hospital admission was 16% (RR 1.16, 95%CI 1.04–1.28) and 25% (RR 1.25, 95%CI 1.02–1.51) higher in social housing respectively. Those aged 25–65 were at 40% (RR 1.40, 95%CI 1.14 – 1.73) higher risk of using residential fire-related health services. Almost 88% of social housing properties did not have a functioning fire detector of any type, and 1.2% were equipped with sprinklers. Overall, the risk of residential fire incidents and associated injuries was higher for residents in social housing. Risk mitigation strategies beyond the current provision of smoke alarms are required to reduce the impact of residential fires in social and non-social housing

The impact of reduced fire risk cigarettes regulation on residential fire incidents, mortality and health service utilisation in New South Wales, Australia

Smoking materials are a common ignition source for residential fires. In Australia, reduced fire risk (RFR) cigarettes regulation was implemented in 2010. However, the impact of this regulation on residential fires is unknown. This paper examines the impact of the RFR cigarettes regulation on the severity and health outcomes of fire incidents in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, from 2005 to 2014. Fire department data from 2005 to 2014 were linked with ambulance, emergency department, hospital, outpatient burns clinic and mortality datasets for NSW. Negative binomial regression analysis was performed to assess the changes to fire incidents’ severity pre- and post-RFR cigarettes regulation. There was an 8% reduction in total fire incidents caused by smokers’ materials post-RFR cigarettes regulation. Smokers’ materials fire incidents that damaged both contents and structure of the building, where fire flames extended beyond the room of fire origin, with over AUD 1000 monetary damage loss, decreased by 18, 22 and 12%, respectively. RFR cigarettes regulation as a fire risk mitigation has positively impacted the residential fire incident outcomes. This provides support for regulation of fire risk protective measures and bestows some direction for other fire safety policies and regulations

Economic costs of residential fires : a systematic review

Globally, most fire-related deaths and injuries occur in residential areas. The aim of this systematic review is to report on the economic costs of residential fires from a societal perspective. Five databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, EconLit, CINAHL, and Scopus) and grey literature were searched to identify studies that report economic or societal costs of residential fires with data from 1978 to 2021. There were no restrictions on study design. A narrative synthesis was undertaken based on the societal and economic costs reported for each included study. Seven studies from the United States, Canada, Australia, and Kuwait reported costs of residential fires. The costs of injuries and deaths were between USD 12 million and USD 5 billion, and between USD 75 million and USD 26 billion, respectively. The costs of treatment ranged from USD 0.3 million to USD 551 million, lost productivity from USD 12 million to USD 4 billion, and property damage from USD 8 million to USD 10 billion. This systematic review provides the most comprehensive evidence to date on the economic costs of residential fires. This study would offer insights into the effects of residential fires on diverse economic agents and aid in community fire prevention messaging and incentives

Liquidity and volatility in 90 day bank accepted bills futures in crisis year 2008

The literature on derivative securities evidently does not contain any empirical studies of liquidity and volatility with high frequency data for leading Australian financial futures contracts, during the general financial crisis. In addressing this deficiency, this paper studies the impact of liquidity events on the cost of liquidity, and estimates the liquidity-volatility relationship for Australian 90 Day Bank Accepted Bills futures, with round-the-clock data for the crisis year 2008. In this paper volatility is represented by realized volatility, which removes the latent variable characteristic from volatility. While the extant literature has studied the liquidity interdependence between spot markets for bonds and equities, the liquidity interdependence between the futures markets for these securities has received little attention, and none at all for Australian futures markets during the crisis. This paper addresses that shortcoming, and studies the effect with intraday data of changes in the cost of liquidity for S&P200 futures on the liquidity of 90 Day Bank Accepted Bills futures in 2008

Can economists forecast exchange rates? : the debate re-visited : the case of the USD/GBP market

In the debate on forecasting exchange rates, critics claimed that traditional macroeconomic models could not outperform a random walk in post-sample forecasts. Perceived deficiencies include inadequate allowance for simultaneity, and expectations hypotheses inconsistent with the structure of models employed. This paper re-visits the debate, first to address critics' major concerns, and second because in the view of the present authors, the debate closed on an unduly pessimistic note. This paper develops a simultaneous, rational expectations model of the USD/GBP market, with functional relationships for hedgers, speculators and a spot rate equation. The model is estimated with data contemporaneous to the debate, including a period during which the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission did not collect data on traders' open positions. Using the results of post-debate research on tests for stationarity with missing observations, the model, using only public information, outperforms a random walk in post-sample forecasts of the spot rate. Recent microstructure models of the exchange rate based on order flow have re-kindled the forecasting debate. The model developed here, however, is differentiated from these microstructure models, first because order flow utilises both public and private information, and second because the microstructure models do not directly address critics' concerns

Simultaneity, forecasting and profits in London copper futures

Previous research on price determination for non-ferrous metals at the London Metal Exchange (LME) suffers from three limitations: first it has employed single equation methods only, which cannot explain the simultaneous determination of spot and futures prices; second, by focusing on current and lagged prices, previous research does not analyse the effect on price determination of critical variables such as expectations, consumption and inventories; third, the outcome of prior research regarding market efficiency is ambiguous. This paper, which addresses these issues, develops a simultaneous model of the copper market at the LME, with representation of the activities of hedgers, speculators and consumers. This model produces post-sample forecasts of the spot price which outperform conventional benchmarks, thus providing evidence against the efficient market hypothesis. Model-derived forecasts are employed as the foundation of a trading program which produces risk-adjusted profits (net of commission costs) for holding periods of one week and one month, thus fulfilling the 'sufficient condition' for market inefficiency. This study, therefore, provides new insights into price determination on the LME copper market, and resolves the ambiguity of previous research regarding the efficiency of that market. This is the first application of the model forecasting approach to the question of performance of the market for copper

Modelling gender differences in the economic and social influences of obesity in Australian young people

In Australia, as in many other developed economies, the prevalence of obesity has risen significantly in all age groups and especially in young males and females over the past decade. Using data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, this paper investigates the influence of economic, personality and social factor demographics on the incidence of obesity in Australian youths. The study uses two random parameters logit models, including one that allows for gender-specific differences in the conditioning variables. The models reveal notable differences between the most important variables affecting the incidence of obesity amongst females compared to males. These differences are notable to consider for policy and intervention programs aimed at reducing the problem of obesity

Modelling gender differences in the economic and social influences of obesity in Australian young people

Obesity constitutes a global epidemic and has considerable implications for individuals, communities, and economies. Beyond their youth, children and young people who are overweight or obese are likely to experience ill effects as they enter adulthood. Using data from the national panel the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA), this paper examines gender differences in the impact of demographic, economic, social and personality factors on obesity in young Australians. The paper sets up a random parameter logit model which captures gender differences in the conditioning variables and uses a well established test for those potential dissimilarities. The test identifies statistically significant differences in the impact of the covariates almost males and females. This has clear implications for policymakers and practitioners

Factors influencing the incidence of obesity in Australia : a generalized ordered probit model

The increasing health costs of and the risks factors associated with obesity are well documented. From this perspective, it is important that the propensity of individuals towards obesity is analyzed. This paper uses longitudinal data from the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey for 2005 to 2010 to model those variables which condition the probability of being obese. The model estimated is a random effects generalized ordered probit, which exploits two sources of heterogeneity; the individual heterogeneity of panel data models and heterogeneity across body mass index (BMI) categories. The latter is associated with non-parallel thresholds in the generalized ordered model, where the thresholds are functions of the conditioning variables, which comprise economic, social, and demographic and lifestyle variables. To control for potential predisposition to obesity, personality traits augment the empirical model. The results support the view that the probability of obesity is significantly determined by the conditioning variables. Particularly, personality is found to be important and these outcomes reinforce other work examining personality and obesity