Relative risk of dengue given climatic exposures and time lags.

<p>Three-dimensional (upper panel) and contour (lower panel) plots of the exposure–lag–response association between (left) SPI-6 relative to normal conditions (SPI-6 = 0) and (right) mean temperature anomalies relative to Tmin of 20°C, at lags between 0 and 5 months. SPI-6, 6-month Standardised Precipitation Index; Tmin, minimum temperature.</p

The type of climate information required for a dengue forecast in a given target month.

<p>Schematic to show the type (e.g., observed or forecast) of climate information (e.g., SPI-6 and Tmin variables, lags 0 to 5) used to produce a dengue forecast for the target month of October. The first forecast would be issued 3 months ahead of the target (i.e., 3-month lead time), in July, using observed climate data (for SPI-6 and Tmin) for May and June and forecast climate data for July, August, September, and October. The forecast would then be updated in August (i.e., 2-month lead time) using observed climate for July and updated climate forecasts for August, September, and October. In September, 1 month before the target (i.e., 1-month lead time), the dengue forecast would be updated again, using observed climate from May to August and updated climate forecasts for September and October. SPI-6, 6-month Standardised Precipitation Index; Tmin, minimum temperature.</p

Model adequacy results for models of increasing complexity.

<p>The CV mean logarithmic score, the DIC, and the likelihood ratio R_LR² statistic for models of increasing complexity.</p

Annual cycle of dengue incidence rates, SPI-6, and Tmin June 1999–May 2016.

<p>Annual cycle of (a) dengue incidence rates (per 100,000 population) in Barbados, (b) SPI-6, and (c) Tmin (°C) averaged over CIMH and GAIA weather stations at the monthly time scale from June 1999 to May 2016. CIMH, Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology; GAIA, Grantley Adams International Airport; SPI-6, 6-month Standardised Precipitation Index.</p

Predicted versus observed dengue incidence rates.

<p>Posterior predicted mean (dashed purple curve) and 95% prediction interval (shaded area) for dengue incidence rates (per 100,000 population) in Barbados from June 1999 to May 2016, simulated from the final model (refitted 17 times, leaving out 1 year at a time). Observed values (solid orange curve) and moving outbreak threshold (blue dotted curve) are included. Year labels are included at the start of each calendar year (e.g., in January).</p