First month prednisone dose predicts prednisone burden during the following 11 months: An observational study from the RELES cohort

Aim: To study the influence of prednisone dose during the first month after systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) diagnosis (prednisone-1) on glucocorticoid burden during the subsequent 11 months (prednisone-2–12). Methods: 223 patients from the Registro Español de Lupus Eritematoso Sistémico inception cohort were studied. The cumulative dose of prednisone-1 and prednisone-2–12 were calculated and recoded into a four-level categorical variable: no prednisone, low dose (up to 7.5 mg/day), medium dose (up to 30 mg/day) and high dose (over 30 mg/day). The association between the cumulative prednisone-1 and prednisone-2–12 doses was tested. We analysed whether the four-level prednisone-1 categorical variable was an independent predictor of an average dose >7.5 mg/day of prednisone-2–12. Adjusting variables included age, immunosuppressives, antimalarials, methyl-prednisolone pulses, lupus nephritis and baseline SLE Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI). Results: Within the first month, 113 patients (51%) did not receive any prednisone, 24 patients (11%) received average low doses, 46 patients (21%) received medium doses and 40 patients (18%) received high doses. There was a strong association between prednisone-1 and prednisone-2–12 dose categories (p7.5 mg/day, while patients receiving low-dose prednisone-1 were not (adjusted OR 1.4, 95% CI 0. 0.38 to 5.2). If the analysis was restricted to the 158 patients with a baseline SLEDAI of =6, the model did not change. Conclusion: The dose of prednisone during the first month after the diagnosis of SLE is an independent predictor of prednisone burden during the following 11 months