Exchange Rate Fluctuations, Oil Prices and Economic Performance: Empirical Evidence From Nigeria

The dominance of oil in the Nigeria's external sector and as its major source of revenue is not in dispute. This therefore necessitates the need to probe the nexus and the magnitude of the effects of fluctuation in the exchange rate on oil price and on how it impacts the Nigeria's economic performance. Against this background, this study evaluated the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on crude oil price as well as on economic performance, simultaneously. The Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and the Two Stage Least Squares (TSLS) estimation techniques were employed. The study found that real exchange rate has a positive effect (1.2 per cent) on the Nigeria's economic performance. We also found that a one percentage increase in the price of oil would positively influence the economic performance of Nigeria by the magnitude of 4 per cent. The R2 shows that 82 per cent deviation in the gross domestic product was captured by the explanatory variables whereas the J-statistics of the model is insignificant, thus, confirming the relevance and validity of the instruments used. Keywords: Exchange Rate; Oil Prices; Economic Performance JEL Classification:  E3; F41; F4

Energy Saving and Eco Driving Behaviour: Empirical Evidence from Ibadan, Nigeria

This study empirically examined the impacts of eco-driving behaviour on energy saving. The descriptive method of analysis was complemented with the OLS estimation technique for robustness check. Results from the two methods reinforced each other. 68.1% of the commercial transport operators affirmed that they were aware of driving styles/behaviour that can help reduce the quantity of fuel their vehicle consumes daily. Despite this, 69.2% of them declared their willingness to learn new driving skills/styles. Our study revealed that 81.3% of the transport operators carry overload and that 85.7% of them do not make use of AC when it is functional. Markedly, we found that traffic hold-up is the most factor that hinders 81.3% of the operators from applying eco-driving skill/behaviour. The results of the empirical model indicated that car fuel consumption (CFC) varies positively with model, number of stoppages, idling, over load, air condition and negatively with engine tuning and tire gauge. Based on our findings, we recommend that the stake holders in the road transport business should intensify practical efforts towards increasing awareness on how car fuel consumption could be reduced using of the eco-driving options. Keywords: Energy Saving, Eco-Driving, Empirical Analysis. JEL Classification: B21, R4

Modeling the Determinants of Foreign Reserves in Nigeria

This study evaluated the determinants of foreign reserves in Nigeria. Literature relevant to the subject matter were rigorously reviewed. The model of the study hypothesized that foreign reserve (RESV) in Nigeria is a function of some macroeconomic variables. The Johansen cointegration tests established evidence of a long run relationship among the variables. The results of the estimated short run coefficients based on parsimonious Error Correction Model (ECM) indicated that RGDP, oil exports (OILEXP) are positive and significant determinants of RESV. This significant deterministic value of OILEXPT remained up to the first period lag. Expectedly, EXCH was found to be significant but negative determinant of RESV. FDI inflows positively and significantly determine RESV only in its first period lag while lending rate (LR) was discovered to be a negative and insignificant determinant. Similarly, the coefficient of inflation rate (INFL) was negative and significant. However, the coefficient of non-oil exports (NOILEXP), though positive, was not significant determinant of RESV. The probability of the diagnostic tests conducted reinforced the robustness of the model. On the basis of the empirical findings we recommend that the government incentivise NOILEXP as a means of positively affecting RESV. Keywords: Foreign Reserves, Exchange Rate. JEL Classification: F41, C5, C22

Modelling the Causal Relationship among Remittances, Exchange Rate, and Monetary Policy in Nigeria

This study examined the relationship and causality that exist between remittance inflows exchange rate and monetary aggregates - money supply, interest rate, and the domestic price level in Nigeria. The Johansen co-integration and the Granger causality techniques were employed. The Johansen co-integration test indicated that long run relationship exist among the variables. The Granger causality test results revealed a unidirectional causality running from money supply (LM2) to remittances (LREM) only at lag one and not in the reverse. In other lags, there was no evidence of causality between the duos. The results also showed that, consistently from lag one to lag five, causality run from exchange rate (LEXR) to LREM and not in reverse direction. Unidirectional causality run from interest rate (INT) to LREM, occurring from lag one to lag four. There was no evidence of causality in any direction between inflation rate (INF) and LREM within these lags. We also found that causality run from exchange rate (LEXR) to money supply (LM2) only at lags one and four and not in the reverse order. Keywords: Remittance Inflows, Exchange Rate, and Monetary Policy.

Energy Consumption, Energy Prices and Economic Growth: Causal Relationships Based on Error Correction Model

This study examined the Granger causality of energy consumption, oil price and economic growth in Nigeria. Two sub-categories of energy (kerosene and electricity) were equally considered. The error correction model framework was used to test the granger causality of the variables. The results for the total energy showed bidirectional causality between energy consumption and economic growth. As regards electricity, bidirectional causality was found between electricity consumption and economic growth as well as between electricity consumption and electricity price. No causal relationship exists among kerosene consumption, kerosene price and economic growth. Based on our findings, we recommend that policies that promote energy consumption and economic growth be introduced. One way of achieving this is through the adoption of appropriate energy pricing framework that takes cognisance of both the present and the future generation. Keywords: Energy consumption; Economic Growth; Kerosene Consumption; Electricity Consumption. JEL Classifications: C22; Q43; Q4

Socio-Economic Determinants of Academic Performances in Aguata Local Government Area, Anambra State

Education is regarded as the greatest investment that any nation can make for the development of its human and material resources. This paper investigated the socio-economic determinants of academic performance in Aguata local government area, Anambra state. The study made use of a qualitative response regression model to analyze the participant’s responses obtained through a well-structured questionnaire. The study presents some interesting findings. The ML-Binary logit estimation results show that parental income (PI); number of hours of study (NHS); parent educational achievement (PEA) and power supply (PS) have positive and significant impact on student’s academic performance (AP), family size (FS) has a negative and significant impact on student’s academic performance (AP) whereas residential area (RA) has positive and insignificant impact on academic performance. The correlation results show that all the variables except family size are positively correlated with student’s academic performance. The study therefore recommends that since parental income is a very important variable which influences student’s academic performance; government employment initiatives should be strengthened while those that are not effective should be reviewed. Government’s effort to boost power supply should be intensified beyond mere transfer of ownership to the private sector. Epileptic power supply does not augur well with the academic performances of students as the finding of this study has shown. Key words: Education, Academic performance, Anambra State. JEL Classification: P17, H4, H

Cluster Development in a Transforming Economy: The Case of Motorcycle Spare Parts Firms in Nnewi, Anambra State of Nigeria

This paper examined the impact of cluster development in Nnewi, Anambra State of Nigeria. The estimated parsimonious model revealed that capital and labour were significant determinants of sales made by the firms while the cluster dummy variable was insignificant. This insignificance of the cluster dummy variable implied that, in terms of total sales, there was no significant difference between firms in the cluster and firms outside the cluster. For the profit model, we found that capital, labour and the cluster dummy were significant at 1% level. Capital, labour and cluster dummy have a positive relationship with firm profit. The positive coefficient of the cluster dummy variable indicated that the profit of firms in the cluster was significantly higher than that of the firms outside the cluster by about ₦31,050. It was therefore concluded that cluster residency made a significant difference in firm profit and recommended that government should encourage cluster development to accelerate the transformation of the economy

Scaling up maternal and child healthcare delivery among mission hospitals in Southeast Nigeria: An Empirical application of data envelopment analysis for setting benchmarks and targets

The health system in many parts of Nigeria has been dysfunctional in several domains including financing, human resources, infrastructure, health management information system and hospital services. In an attempt to scale up Maternal and Child Health (MCH) services and ensure efficiency, Ebonyi State Government in Southeast Nigeria provided funding to mission hospitals across the State as a grant. This study used nonparametric method to assess the effect of this public financing on the efficiency of the mission hospitals. Operational cost and number of hospital beds were used as the input variables, while antenatal registrations, number of immunization doses and hospital deliveries were the output variables. The hospitals were disaggregated into 15 hospital-years. The mean overall technical efficiency of the mission hospitals was 84.05 22.45%. The mean pure technical efficiency was 95.56±6.9% and the scale efficiency was 88.05±22.20%. About 46.67% of all the hospital-years were technically and scale efficient. Although, 55.33% were generally inefficient, only 33.33% of hospital-years exhibited pure technical inefficiency. Low immunization coverage was the major cause of inefficiency. The study showed increased maternal health service output as result of public funding or intervention; however, the mission hospitals could have saved 16% of input resources if they had performed efficiently. It also shows that data envelopment analysis can be used in setting targets/benchmarks for relatively inefficient health facilities, and in monitoring impact of interventions on efficiency of hospitals over-time.Dans de nombreuses régions du Nigéria, le système de santé est dysfonctionnel dans plusieurs domaines, notamment le financement, les ressources humaines, les infrastructures, le système d‘information sur la gestion de la santé et les services hospitaliers. Dans le but de renforcer les services de santé maternelle et infantile et d'assurer l'efficacité, le gouvernement de l'État d'Ebonyi, dans le sud-est du Nigéria, a octroyé une subvention aux hôpitaux des missions de l'État. Cette étude a utilisé une méthode non paramétrique pour évaluer l‘effet de ce financement public sur l‘efficacité des hôpitaux de mission. Le coût opérationnel et le nombre de lits d'hôpitaux ont été utilisés comme variables d'entrée, tandis que les variables de sortie étaient les enregistrements prénatals, le nombre de doses d'immunisation et les accouchements à l'hôpital. Les hôpitaux ont été ventilés en 15 années d‘hospitalisation. L‘efficacité technique moyenne globale des hôpitaux de mission était de 84,05 ± 22,45%. Le rendement technique pur moyen était de 95,56 ± 6,9% et le rendement d'échelle de 88,05 ± 22,20%. Environ 46,67% de toutes les années d‘hospitalisation ont été efficients sur le plan technique et sur l‘échelle. Bien que 55,33% aient été généralement inefficaces, seulement 33,33% des années d‘hospitalisation ont montré une inefficacité technique pure. La faible couverture vaccinale était la principale cause d'inefficacité. L'étude a révélé une augmentation de la production de services de santé maternelle résultant d'un financement ou d'une intervention publique; toutefois, les hôpitaux de mission auraient pu économiser 16% des ressources en intrants s‘ils avaient fonctionné efficacement. Il montre également que l‘analyse de l‘enveloppement des données peut être utilisée pour fixer des objectifs/critères pour des établissements de santé relativement inefficaces et pour surveiller l‘impact des interventions sur l‘efficacité des hôpitaux à terme.Keywords: Mission hospitals, Data envelopment analysis, Efficiency, Setting targets, Southeast NigeriaAfr J Reprod Health 2019; 23[3]: 57-6