2 research outputs found
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Some Statistical Models for Prediction
This dissertation examines the use of statistical models for prediction. Examples are drawn from public policy and chosen because they represent pressing problems facing U.S. governments at the local, state, and federal level. The first five chapters provide examples where the perfunctory use of linear models, the prediction tool of choice in government, failed to produce reasonable predictions. Methodological flaws are identified, and more accurate models are proposed that draw on advances in statistics, data science, and machine learning. Chapter 1 examines skyscraper construction, where the normality assumption is violated and extreme value analysis is more appropriate. Chapters 2 and 3 examine presidential approval and voting (a leading measure of civic participation), where the non-collinearity assumption is violated and an index model is more appropriate. Chapter 4 examines changes in temperature sensitivity due to global warming, where the linearity assumption is violated and a first-hitting-time model is more appropriate. Chapter 5 examines the crime rate, where the independence assumption is violated and a block model is more appropriate. The last chapter provides an example where simple linear regression was overlooked as providing a sensible solution. Chapter 6 examines traffic fatalities, where the linear assumption provides a better predictor than the more popular non-linear probability model, logistic regression. A theoretical connection is established between the linear probability model, the influence score, and the predictivity
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Machine learning and data mining in complex genomic data a review on the lessons learned in Genetic Analysis Workshop Nineteen
In the analysis of current genomic data, application of machine learning and data mining techniques has become more attractive given the rising complexity of the projects. As part of the Genetic Analysis Workshop 19, approaches from this domain were explored, mostly motivated from two starting points. First, assuming an underlying structure in the genomic data, data mining might identify this and thus improve downstream association analyses. Second, computational methods for machine learning need to be developed further to efficiently deal with the current wealth of data.
In the course of discussing results and experiences from the machine learning and data mining approaches, six common messages were extracted. These depict the current state of these approaches in the application to complex genomic data. Although some challenges remain for future studies, important forward steps were taken in the integration of different data types and the evaluation of the evidence. Mining the data for underlying genetic or phenotypic structure and using this information in subsequent analyses proved to be extremely helpful and is likely to become of even greater use with more complex data sets