A study on hysteria: Reinterpreting the heroine of Debussy's 'Pelléas et Mélisande'

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Stochastic Trends, Demographics and Demand Systems

Techniques for determining the number of stochastic trends generating a set of non-stationary panel data are applied to budget shares for a number of commodity groups from the Family Expenditure Survey (FES) for the UK for the years 1973-2001. It is argued that some stochastic trends in macro data are generated by the aggregation of fixed demographic effects in the micro data. From cross section data, fixed effect coefficients are estimated which incorporate both age and income distribution effects. The estimated coefficients are combined with age proportion variables to form a set of I(1) indices for broad commodity groups which are then incorporated into a system of aggregate demand equations. The equations are estimated and tested in a non-stationary time series setting.Demand Equations, Age Demographics, Stochastic Trends.

A Comparison of the Translog and Almost Ideal Demand Models

A version of the Translog demand system is compared with the Almost Ideal demand model within a time series setting, where variables are nonstationary, by testing both models for the theoretical demand propositions of 'homogeneity, symmetry and negativity' and by comparing out of sample forecasting performance. Demographic age and income distributional effects are included in both models.Demand Equations, Age Demographics, Nonstationarity.

Looking for fraud in digital footprints: sensemaking with chronologies in a large corporate investigation

During extended sensemaking tasks people typically create external representations that integrate information and support their thinking. Understanding the variety, role and use of these is important for understanding sensemaking and how to support it effectively. We report a case-study of a large, document-based fraud investigation undertaken by a law firm. We focus on the construction and use of integrated representations in the form of chronologies. We show how these supported conjecture recording, focussing on time-periods, identifying gaps, identifying connections and reviewing interpretations. We use our findings to highlight limitations of a previous analysis of representations in sensemaking which regards this as schema definition and population. The findings also argue for search tools designed to identify date references in documents, for the support of ad-hoc event selections, and the support of linking between integrating representations and source documents

E-discovery viewed as integrated human-computer sensemaking: the challenge of 'Frames'

In addressing the question of the design on technologies for e-discovery it is essential to recognise that such work takes place through a system in which both people and technology interact as a complex whole. Technology can promote discovery and insight and support human sensemaking, but the question hangs on the extent to which it naturally extends the way that legal practitioners think and work. We describe research at UCL which uses this as a starting point for empirical studies to inform the design of supporting technologies. We report aspects of an interview field study with lawyers who worked on a large regulatory investigation. Using data from this study we describe document review and analysis in terms of a sequence of transitions between different kinds of representation. We then focus on one particular transition: the creation of chronology records from documents. We develop the idea that investigators make sense of evidence by the application of conceptual ‘frames’ (Klein et al’s, 2006), but whilst the investigator ‘sees’ the situation in terms of these frames, the system ‘sees’ the situation in terms of documents, textual tokens and metadata. We conclude that design leverage can be obtained through the development of technologies that aggregate content around investigators’ frames. We outline further research to explore this further

Balanced Growth and Output Convergence in Europe

Using OECD quarterly data on consumption, output and investment from 1980, the balanced growth hypothesis is tested country by country for seven European economies, Belgium, Finland, France, Holland, Italy, Spain and the UK. Output series for each of the countries is then modelled as an output system and the hypothesis of convergence in trend output growth tested. Finally, the hypothesis of balanced growth and convergence, is tested in a system framework.Convergence, Balanced Growth, Stochastic Trends

Structural Breaks and Permanent Trends

For a multivariate time series model with structural breaks, explicit representations of the Beveridge-Nelson and Granger-Gonzalo-Proietti permanent trends are derived from the Johansen maximum likelihood estimates.Multivariate Time Series, Structural Breaks, Permanent Trends

Principles of Equality: Managing Equality and Diversity in a Steiner School

Principles of equality are examined in the context of managing equality and diversity in practice. Our case study is the Cardiff Steiner School, an independent international school located in Wales, UK with educational values guided by the philosophers and educationalists Rudolf Steiner and Millicent Mackenzie. The sustainable management referred to and assessed in this chapter is the School’s management structure and the related School pedagogical operation, with the founding Steiner value of human justice informing these. We argue that at this School the management of equality and diversity reflects theories of Diversity and Equality Management, with School managers aspiring to encourage respect for all. We appraise the philosophical and spiritual values of the founders in relation to equality and diversity, in order to demonstrate the visionary ideals of these philosophers and the extent to which their beliefs live on sustainably in contemporary society, and particularly in a Steiner education community

Structural Breaks and Convergence in Output Growth in the EU

Convergence is defined for a multivariate time-series model of output with breaks in intercepts and in time trends. Using OECD quarterly data on output from 1980, the convergence hypothesis is tested across seven European economies, Belgium, Finland, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and the UK. On the strictest definition, the hypothesis of convergence of output can be rejected but, with a weaker definition, there is some evidence of convergence for the five countries Belgium, Finland, France, the Netherlands and the UK. The data is consistent with a model in which each country's trend output is related to a common European stochastic trend. This trend output is estimated and graphed for each country.Convergence, Output Growth, Permanent Stochastic Trends