Asymmetric price adjustment of Ukrainian feed wheat export prices in relation to U.S. maize exports: A Note

This note aims to investigate the price dynamics between Ukrainian feed wheat exports and U.S. maize exports employing the method by Enders and Siklos (2001) to allow for threshold adjustment. The analysis reveals slow amounts of adjustment towards equilibrium for a positive change in the equilibrium relationship, but a substantial amount of adjustment for a negative change in the equilibrium relationship. This would imply that Ukrainian prices would have to decrease at a faster rate in order to retain their market share. The fact that there is some evidence of asymmetric price adjustment is not surprising given that Ukraine is a minor exporter in relation to the U.S. and that policy intervention exists in the Ukrainian wheat market. The nature of price dynamics sheds light on how Ukraine has been strategically responding to U.S. maize exports since the mid 1990s.Wheat.

Nonlinear Price Transmission in Wheat Export Prices

This paper attempts to model the price relationship between the major exporters of wheat. The motivation of such research is to reveal whether prices are integrated and whether potential nonlinearities in price adjustment exist. Given the perception that transactions costs may be highly variable in the wheat market, the paper aims to test for the presence of cointegration in the presence of smooth transition adjustment. The results conclude that the further the prices deviate from each other, the larger will be the arbitrage and substitution that will drive the prices close to each other. However, the results suggest that the arbitrage will be limited as the various wheat prices employed in this study may be linked to highly variable transactions costs or some other form of imperfect competition.price adjustment; estar; wheat; cointegration

Long-Run Relationship of U.S. and Argentine Maize Prices

This paper examines the relationship between the maize export prices of the United States and Argentina. The results suggest an asymmetric nature of price adjustment. This could be due to the fact that the maize market is characterized by significant concentration. The larger market share of exports by the United States reflects the influences on export price dynamics. The structure of maize trade is such that U.S. markets are largely insulated from influences flowing from Argentina, while Argentine maize prices are not insulated from U.S. influences.cointegration, maize, price dynamics, threshold adjustment, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade,

PRICE LINKAGES IN THE INTERNATIONAL WHEAT MARKET

This paper brings time series techniques to bear on the relationships between the prices of the principal types of wheat traded internationally. In all, the relationships between eleven wheat prices (categorised by wheat quality, harvest date and port of despatch) are scrutinised to uncover the structure of the wheat market implicit in the behaviour its prices reveal. The statistical evidence supports the notion of a highly integrated market that is segmented according to wheat strength-the principal determinant of end-use. Three segments are identified: a market for 'strong' (bread-making) wheat, another for 'weak' (confectionary products-making) wheat and a third for medium strength wheat suitable for unleavened breads and noodles. Whilst informative, market integration - detected by cointegration among prices - is not altogether surprising, yet the presence of cointegration implies a causal structure, which is of more cogent interest. Among a number of complementary techniques, linkages are uncovered using an innovative concept of irreducible cointegration vectors (Davidson 1998, Barassi et al 2001) which provides new evidence on price linkages. Statistical evidence is robust and not test-dependent. Specifically, we find a dominant price leader in each sub-market. In terms of its pricing, the EU is found to play a passive role in the world market, confirming a widely held view.Wheat market, price linkages, irreducible cointegration vectors, Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade,

Re-examining inequality persistence

Although it is not a new phenomenon, in recent years inequality has moved to the top of the political agenda given the concern that will result in political instability and social resentment. Persistence in inequality can further undermine economic growth and development by hindering educational opportunities, human capital formation, and intergenerational mobility. The persistent nature of inequality stands as one of the most serious challenges for the global economy. This paper analyses inequality persistence for a sample of 60 countries from 1984 to 2015. The authors conclude that inequality is persistent and government redistribution polices through taxes and transfers did not significantly reduce inequality persistence

Uncovered Interest Parity and the Risk Premium

The aim of this study is to analyze the potential risk premium inherent in the uncovered interest parity (UIP) condition. In this approach the GARCH class models, including Component GARCH are used to measure the time-varying risk premium and the results show that it is significant in most countries studied in this analysis. This suggests that risk is an important part of modeling exchange rates and needs to be considered in both empirical and theoretical models. In general, the results suggest emerging countries work better in terms of UIP and the risk premium than developed countries.

Breaking Trends and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: A Further Investigation

This paper examines the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis employing new time se- ries procedures that are robust to the nature of persistence in the commodity price shocks, thereby obviating the need for unit root pretesting. Speci…cally, the proce- dures allow consistent estimation of the number of structural breaks in the trend function as well as facilitate the distinction between trend breaks and pure level shifts. In comparison with past studies, we …nd fewer cases of commodities that display negative trends thereby weakening the case for the Prebisch-Singer Hypoth- esis. Finally, a new set of powerful unit root tests allowing for structural breaks under both the null and alternative hypotheses is applied to determine whether the underlying commodity price series can be characterized as di¤erence or trend sta- tionary processes. Relative to the extant literature, we …nd more evidence in favor of trend stationarity suggesting that real commodity price shocks are mostly of a transitory nature.primary commodity prices, structural breaks, trend functions, Prebisch- Singer Hypothesis, unit roots, Demand and Price Analysis, Marketing, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, 013, C22,

HOW PERSISTENT ARE SHOCKS TO OIL PRICES?

Abstract Given that energy prices are known to contain structural breaks and are also characterized by volatility that changes over tim