The Norwegian Healthier Goats programme - A financial cost-benefit analysis

The aim of this study was to evaluate the profitability to dairy goat farmers of participating in the Healthier Goats disease control and eradication programme (HG), which was initiated in 2001 and is still running. HG includes the control and eradication of caprine arthritisencephalitis (CAE), caseous lymphadenitis (CLA) and paratuberculosis (Johne's disease) in Norwegian goat herds. The profitability of participation was estimated in a financial cost-benefit analysis (CBA)using partial budgeting to quantify the economic consequences of infectious disease control through HG versus taking no action. Historical data were collected from 24 enrolled dairy goat herds and 21 herds not enrolled in HG, and supplemented with information from a questionnaire distributed to the same farmers. Expert opinions were collected to arrive at the best possible estimates. For some input parameters there were uncertainty due to imperfect knowledge, thus these parameters were modelled as PERT probability distributions and a stochastic simulation model was built. The CBA model was used to generate distributions of net present value (NPV) of farmers' net cash flows for choosing to enroll versus not enrolling. This was done for three selected milk quota levels of 30 000 L, 50 000 L and 70 000 L, and both for before and after the introduction of a reduced milk price for the non-enrolled. The NPVs were calculated over time horizons of 5, 10 and 20 years using an inflation-adjusted discount rate of 2.8% per annum. The results show that participation in HG on average was profitable over a time horizon of 10 years or longer for quota levels of 50 000 L and 70 000 L, although not without risk of having a negative NPV. If farmers had to pay all the costs themselves, participation in HG would have been profitable only for a time horizon beyond 20 years. In 2012, a reduced milk price was introduced for farmers not enrolled in HG, changing the decision criteria for farmers, and thus, the CBA. When the analysis was altered to account for these changes, the expected NPV was positive over five years for the 50 000 L quota, indicating an increased profitability of enrolling in HG. The sensitivity analysis showed that particular attention should be paid to work load and investment costs when planning for disease control programmes in the future

Adapting seasonal sheep production to year-round fresh meat and halal market in Norway

Norway is the largest sheep meat producer among Nordic countries with more than 1.3 million lambs and sheep slaughtered in 2017. The sheep industry is limited by the need for in-house feeding during the winter months. In summer, Norwegian sheep are mainly kept on rangeland pastures, with sufficient feed for almost double the current sheep population. Lambs are slaughtered over a three- to four-month period from September to December with a peak in September–October, providing a surplus of lamb, much of which is subsequently frozen, followed by eight months during which fresh produce is in limited supply. Norwegian consumers eat an average of 5.4 kg of sheep meat per person per year, much of which is purchased as a frozen product. The Muslim (4.2% of the population) preference for year-round halal meat, with an increased demand on the eve of the Muslim meat festival (Eid al-Adha), has the potential to boost demand, particularly in Oslo. This paper provides an overview of the Norwegian sheep farming system, the current market value chains, and the potential to meet the demand for halal meat in Norway (specifically during the Muslim meat festival—Eid al-Adha) to the advantage of both consumers and sheep farmers