Denudation and geomorphic change in the Anthropocene; a global overview

The effects of human activity on geomorphic processes, particularly those related to denudation/sedimentation, are investigated by reviewing case studies and global assessments covering the past few centuries. Evidence we have assembled from different parts of the world, as well as from the literature, show that certain geomorphic processes are experiencing an acceleration, especially since the mid-twentieth century. This suggests that a global geomorphic change is taking place, largely caused by anthropogenic landscape changes. Direct human-driven denudation (through activities involving excavation, transport, and accumulation of geological materials) has increased by a factor of 30 between 1950 and 2015, representing a ten-fold increase of per capita effect. Direct plus indirectly human-induced denudation (triggered by land surface alteration) is presently at least one order of magnitude greater than denudation due to purely natural processes. The activity of slope movements, which represent an important contribution to denudation, sediment generation and landscape evolution, also shows a clear intensification. Frequency of hazardous events and disasters related to slope movements (an indirect measure of process frequency) in specific regions, as well as at continental and global levels, has grown considerably, in particular after the mid-twentieth century. Intense rainstorm events are often related to slope movement occurrence, but the general increasing trend observed is not satisfactorily explained by climate. Sedimentation has augmented considerably in most regions and all kinds of sedimentation environments. Although the link between denudation and sedimentation is not direct and unequivocal, it is safe to assume that if sedimentation rates increase in different regions during a given period, denudation must have increased too, even though their magnitudes could be different. This augmentation, particularly marked from the second half of the last century onwards, appears to be determined mainly by land surface changes, in conjunction with climate change. The changes observed suggest: a) there is evidence at a global scale of a growing response of geomorphic systems to socio-economic drivers, being Gross Domestic Product density, a good indicator of the human potential to cause such impacts; b) Land use/cover changes enhance effects of climate change on global denudation/sedimentation and landslide/flood frequency, and appear to be a stronger controlling factor; c) Our findings point to the existence of a global geomorphic change. This manifestation of global change is especially evident since the ?great geomorphic acceleration? that began in the middle of the 20th century, and constitutes one of the characteristics of the proposed Anthropocene.This work was supported, at different stages, by projects: FEDER, AEI, CGL2017-82703-R (Ministerio de Ciencia e Investigacion, Spain) and PICT2011-1685; MTM2014-56235-C2-2215 (Ministerio de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovacion, Argentina). We also thank Dr. Anthony R. Berger for critical review and writing assistance

Contemporary Trends in River Flow, Suspended Sediment Load, and Soil/Gully Erosion in the South of the Boreal Forest Zone of European Russia: The Vyatka River Basin

Recent decades in the north of the East European Plain have been characterized by significant changes in climate and land use/cover, especially after the collapse of the USSR in 1991. At the same time, the hydrological consequences of these changes, especially changes in erosion processes and river sediment load, have been studied insufficiently. This paper partially covers this existing knowledge gap using the example of the Vyatka River basin. Draining an area of 129,000 km2, the Vyatka River is among the largest rivers in the boreal forest zone of European Russia. Cultivated land occupies about one-fifth of the river basin area; about three-fourths is covered by taiga forest vegetation. The results of state long-term hydrometeorological monitoring and information on land use/cover made it possible to reveal contemporary (since the 1960s) hydrological and erosion-intensity trends and their drivers within the greater (96%) part of the river basin. There has been a statistically insignificant increase in water discharge in the Vyatka River basin during recent decades. This is due to a statistically insignificant increase (for the entire basin studied) in the spring snowmelt-induced floodwater flow and a statistically significant rise in the discharge in the year’s warm and cold seasons. The main reason for the detected trends is increased precipitation, including heavy rainfall during the warm season. In contrast to this, the total annual suspended sediment load of the river (especially that which was snowmelt-induced) and, consequently, soil/gully erosion intensity have experienced a significant decrease in recent decades (up to 58% between 1960–1980 and 2010–2018). Land-use/-cover changes (a reduction of cultivated land area and agricultural machinery, a decline of livestock in pastures) following the collapse of the Soviet Union are considered the main reasons for this decrease. The most noticeable changes in water discharge, suspended sediment load, and erosion intensity were observed in the most agriculturally developed southwest and south parts of the Vyatka River basin. All the above trends may be considered with a high probability to be representative for the south sector of the taiga zone of the East European Plain

Buried River Valleys of the Neogene and Early Quaternary in the Middle Volga Region, European Russia

Buried river valleys from the Neogene–Quaternary time are widespread throughout the Middle Volga region of the Russian Plain. They have been studied for a long period, since the 1940s, with the last major generalizations dating back to the 1980s. This paper presents new results based on GIS mapping using materials from the state geological study of the region in 1960–1970, 1984–1996 and 2000–2002. On the whole, the pattern of the buried valley network is close to the modern valley network of the region. During the Quaternary, the right-sided displacement of the valley incisions prevailed. The incisions of modern river valleys are located above the Neogene (pre-Akchagyl) incisions almost throughout the entire territory. The vertical displacement amplitude ranges from 30 to 200 m. The morphometric characteristics of the paleovalleys (the depth and width of the incisions, as well as the gradients of the bottoms of the paleovalleys) exceeded modern ones. The maximum values were typical for the middle Paleo-Volga valley: the width of the valley reached 10 km, the incision depth was−201.4 m below sea level and the bottom gradient was 0.9–5.0 m/km. The most important factor that influenced the position of paleovalleys and their morphological appearance was fluctuations in the level of the Caspian paleowaterbody. According to this study, the development of paleovalleys began in the Miocene and ended in the Early Quaternary. The alluvial–lacustrine type of sedimentation was predominant. The results of this work contribute to the study of the paleogeography of the Cenozoic of the southeast of the Russian Plain

A Predictive Model for Cropland Transformation at the Regional Level: A Case Study of the Belgorod Oblast, European Russia

The problem of choosing the type of land use is now more relevant than ever. Against the backdrop of the growth of urbanized territories, the challenge is to preserve cropland, maintain the quality of soil resources, and find a balance between competing land uses. Forecasting and modeling changes in the area of cropland is a sought-after area of research against the backdrop of a growing shortage of fertile land and a threat to food security. In this study, on the example of one of the agriculturally most developed administrative regions of Russia (Belgorod Oblast), an approach to statistical modeling of agricultural land areas over the past 30 years is shown. Two approaches were used: statistical modeling of the dynamics of the total area of the study region’s cropland depending on the balance of other types of land and spatial interaction modeling of cropland in a key area. For the study region, administrative districts with positive and negative cropland dynamics were identified; the main types of land were revealed, due to which cropland is withdrawn, and a regression balance model was developed. It was revealed that the implementation of the planned regional programs to expand the development and conservation of meadow lands will reduce cropland by 3.07% or 83.2 thousand ha. On the example of one of the administrative districts with high rates of urbanization, the probability of cropland transformation into other types of land was estimated and a predictive spatial model of land use was developed. According to the forecast, about 6.2 thousand ha of cropland will turn into residential development land, and 2/3 of their area will be concentrated within 6 km from the borders of the regional capital city (Belgorod). The presented approach to forecasting the area of cropland and the threats of its reduction due to the need to replace other types of land is relevant for all agricultural regions and countries with developing urbanization processes

Contemporary Long-Term Trends in Water Discharge, Suspended Sediment Load, and Erosion Intensity in River Basins of the North Caucasus Region, SW Russia

For the first time, contemporary trends in water discharge, suspended sediment load, and the intensity of overall erosion in the river basins of the North Caucasus region, as one of Russia’s most agriculturally developed geographic areas, were identified. The study was carried out using monitoring data of the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring of the country for 21 rivers by comparing two periods: 1963–1980 and 2008–2017. According to the study’s results, trends of an increase in the mean annual water discharge (by 2–97%) and the essential reduction in its intra-annual variability have been found in most of the studied rivers. On the contrary, the trends of reduction in annual suspended sediment load and the intensity of erosion in the river basins were identified in most of the study region. Their most essential and statistically significant decreases (by 47–94%) were recorded within the Stavropol Upland, which several decades ago was considered one of the most erosion-dangerous territories of the entire country, as well as in some river basins of the central part of the Greater Caucasus’s northern slope (by 17–94%). The changes in climate (reducing the depth of soil freezing and meltwater runoff on the soil) and land use/cover (reduction of acreage and load (pressure) of agricultural machinery on the soil, reducing livestock on pastures, and the transfer of water from the neighboring, more full-flowing rivers) are considered the leading causes of the aforementioned trends. The findings will contribute to solving some economic and environmental problems of both the region and adjacent territories and water areas

Solutions for the Spatial Organization of Cropland with Increased Erosion Risk at the Regional Level: A Case Study of Belgorod Oblast, European Russia

Among the reasons for soil degradation, runoff-induced erosion causes the greatest damage to agriculture in European Russia. One of the effective tools for regulating soil erosion is changing the structure of sown areas and the composition of crops with a focus on soil conservation and rehabilitation land use. The aim of this paper is to present the results of the impact of the program on river-basin nature management and the adaptive landscape agriculture system (ALAS) on changes in soil losses due to storm erosion in one of the agriculturally most developed and, at the same time, most eroded administrative regions of European Russia—Belgorod Oblast. In this study, the calculation of potential soil washout was carried out for three cropland models: (1) The maximum erosion potential of the territory, expressed in terms of soil washout from bare (clean) fallow areas; (2) soil washout, considering the actual structure of sown areas over the past 10 years; and (3) soil washout, considering the full implementation of projects for the erosion-control organization of cropland within the framework of ALAS. The calculation of erosion-induced soil losses was carried out according to the USLE model adapted to regional environmental conditions, while the C-factor values were set separately for each model. For model 1, the average soil loss is 11.3 t/ha per year; for model 2, it is 3.5 t/ha per year; and for model 3, it is 2.2 t/ha per year. It was found that the current programs for the biologization of agriculture and the contour-reclamation organization of cropland would have a noticeable erosion-control effect. It is noteworthy that the greatest efficiency was modeled for areas with unfavorable relief conditions, with up to 40% reduction in soil losses as compared to actual ones

Assessing the Effectiveness of the Use of the InVEST Annual Water Yield Model for the Rivers of Colombia: A Case Study of the Meta River Basin

This paper presents the results of one of the hydrological models, the InVEST “Annual Water Yield” (InVEST–AWY), applied to the Meta River basin in Colombia, which covers an area of 113,981 km². The study evaluates the performance of the model in different subbasins of the Meta River basin. The model’s accuracy was assessed using different statistical measures, including Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) coefficient, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), correlation coefficients for the calibration (rcal) and validation (rval) periods. The overall performance of the model in the Meta River basin is relatively poor as indicated by the low NSE value of 0.07 and high RMSE value of 1071.61. In addition, the model explains only a 7% of the variance in the observed data. The sensitivity analysis revealed that a 30% reduction in crop coefficient (Kc) values would result in a 10.7% decrease in water yield. The model estimated, for example, the annual average water yield of the river in 2018 as 1.98 × 1011 m3/year or 6273.4 m3/s, which is 1.3% lower than the reported value. The upper Meta River subbasin shows the highest NSE value (0.49), indicating a good result between observed and simulated water discharge. In contrast, the South Cravo River subbasin shows a negative NSE value of −1.29, indicating poor model performance. The Yucao River subbasin and the upper Casanare River subbasin also show lower NSE values compared to the upper Meta River subbasin, indicating less accurate model performance in these subbasins. The correlation coefficients in calibration (rcal) and validation (rval) for the upper Meta River, Yucao River, South Cravo River, and upper Casanare River subbasins were 0.79 and 0.83, 0.4 and 0.22, 0.5 and −0.25, and 0 and 0.18, respectively. These results provide useful insights into the limitations for the proper use of the InVEST–AWY model in Colombia. This study is the first to use the InVEST–AWY model on a large scale in the territory of Colombia, allowing to evaluate its effectiveness in hydrological modeling for water management

Predictive Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Yield in the Meta River Basin, Colombia: An InVEST Model Application

This paper presents a hydrological assessment of the 113,981 km2 Meta River basin in Colombia using 13 global climate models to predict water yield for 2050 under two CMIP6 scenarios, SSP 4.5 and SSP 8.5. Despite mixed performance across subbasins, the model was notably effective in the upper Meta River subbasin. This study predicts an overall increase in the basin’s annual water yield due to increased precipitation, especially in flatter regions. Under the SSP 4.5, the Meta River basin’s water flow is expected to rise from 5141.6 m3/s to 6397.5 m3/s, and to 6101.5 m3/s under the SSP 8.5 scenario, marking 24% and 19% increases in water yield, respectively. Conversely, the upper Meta River subbasin may experience a slight decrease in water yield, while the upper Casanare River subbasin is predicted to see significant increases. The South Cravo River subbasin, however, is expected to face a considerable decline in water yield, indicating potential water scarcity. This study represents a pioneering large-scale application of the InVEST–AWY model in Colombia using CMIP6 global climate models with an integrated approach to produce predictions of future water yields

The Influence of Eurasian Beaver (<i>Castor fiber</i> L.) Activity on the Transformation and Functioning of Riparian Phytocoenoses in the Southern Boreal Zone (European Russia)

The reintroduction of Eurasian beaver (Castor fiber L.) results in significant changes in ecosystems. The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of the environment-forming activity of C. fiber on the riparian phytocoenoses of the Raifa forest sector of the Volga-Kama State Nature Biosphere Reserve (Middle Volga region, European Russia) after the reintroduction. Phytoindication methods of ecological–coenotic groups and indicator values were used to assess changes in environmental conditions under the influence of beaver activity. The influence of the beaver reintroduction factor on the increase in the moisture regime (by three points according to the Tsyganov indicator values) and the illumination of habitats, the richness of soils in nitrogen, and the acidity and salt regime of soils (by one point) was revealed. Under the conditions of fodder and construction activities of the beaver, an increase in the proportion of aquatic and wetland groups from 10.2% to 28.2% and boreal plant species from 15.0% to 27.6% was detected. An expansive nature of the change in the degree of landscape occupancy with wetland plants was noted. A decrease in the degree of landscape occupancy (3 to 2 points) of the distribution of ruderal species in the riparian zones of the waterbodies of the reserve due to the activity of the beaver was revealed. Based on phytoindication and ecological–coenotic analyses, it was shown that the reintroduction of C. fiber into the waterbodies of the Raifa forest sector of the reserve is responsible for maintaining the necessary microclimatic conditions for the preservation of natural southern boreal communities. The results obtained can be used for predictive assessment of the influence of the beaver on riparian (small rivers and lakes) plant communities of forest ecosystems in the Middle Volga region of European Russia and other regions of the planet with similar environmental conditions

Air Temperature Change at the End of the Late Holocene and in the Anthropocene in the Middle Volga Region, European Russia

The temporal variability of air temperature in the Middle Volga region from 1828 to 2021 is considered according to instrumental observations at the oldest meteorological station in the east of the East European Plain (Kazan University) and throughout the Asian part of Russia against the background of long-term climate fluctuations in the Northern Hemisphere of Earth. A general trend toward an increase in air temperature was revealed. It was found that climate change in Kazan was consistent with the climatic processes that occurred in the Middle Volga region as a whole. The greatest warming for the entire observation period was observed in the winter and spring seasons of the year. In December, warming occurred at a maximum rate of 0.28 °C/10 years. At the same time, the most intense warming process was observed from 1991 to 2021. The analysis of low-frequency fluctuations in the series of monthly average air temperatures made it possible to identify different periods of change, both in type (direction) and intensity. It is shown that in the Middle Volga region, positive anomalies of air temperature have occurred more often than negative ones in recent decades. Statistical data processing was also carried out for 30-year periods, starting from the first period, i.e., 1841–1870. This made it possible to reveal long-term changes in air temperature. Comparisons of climatic parameters in two periods, i.e., 1828–1945 and 1946–2021, allowed us to reliably detect the climatic beginning of the increasingly identifiable Anthropocene epoch (since 1946), characterized by a sharp increase in air temperature, increased interannual variability of the air temperature regime, and a significant increase (by about three times) in the rate of warming in the Middle Volga region. A correlation was made between atmospheric circulation indices and air temperature fluctuations in Kazan over different periods. The closest relationship was found for the 1990–2020 period. It is shown that the contribution of global factors to air temperature variability in the Middle Volga region during the Anthropocene reached 37% in winter and 32% in summer; in annual terms, this contribution amounted to 54%