Formation of the Wink Sink, A Salt Dissolution and Collapse Feature, Winkler County, Texas

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Communications of the Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, Volume 3, Number 50

Designation, diameter, position, central peak information, and state of completeness of craters in third lunar quadran

COMET: A Recipe for Learning and Using Large Ensembles on Massive Data

COMET is a single-pass MapReduce algorithm for learning on large-scale data. It builds multiple random forest ensembles on distributed blocks of data and merges them into a mega-ensemble. This approach is appropriate when learning from massive-scale data that is too large to fit on a single machine. To get the best accuracy, IVoting should be used instead of bagging to generate the training subset for each decision tree in the random forest. Experiments with two large datasets (5GB and 50GB compressed) show that COMET compares favorably (in both accuracy and training time) to learning on a subsample of data using a serial algorithm. Finally, we propose a new Gaussian approach for lazy ensemble evaluation which dynamically decides how many ensemble members to evaluate per data point; this can reduce evaluation cost by 100X or more

A Nonlinear Super-Exponential Rational Model of Speculative Financial Bubbles

Keeping a basic tenet of economic theory, rational expectations, we model the nonlinear positive feedback between agents in the stock market as an interplay between nonlinearity and multiplicative noise. The derived hyperbolic stochastic finite-time singularity formula transforms a Gaussian white noise into a rich time series possessing all the stylized facts of empirical prices, as well as accelerated speculative bubbles preceding crashes. We use the formula to invert the two years of price history prior to the recent crash on the Nasdaq (april 2000) and prior to the crash in the Hong Kong market associated with the Asian crisis in early 1994. These complex price dynamics are captured using only one exponent controlling the explosion, the variance and mean of the underlying random walk. This offers a new and powerful detection tool of speculative bubbles and herding behavior.Comment: Latex document of 24 pages including 5 eps figure

Phase Transition and Symmetry Breaking in the Minority Game

We show that the Minority Game, a model of interacting heterogeneous agents, can be described as a spin systems and it displays a phase transition between a symmetric phase and a symmetry broken phase where the games outcome is predicable. As a result a ``spontaneous magnetization'' arises in the spin formalism.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures, submitted to PRE/Rapid Communications Major revision of the tex

Communications of the lunar planetary laboratory, volume 3, no. 40- the system of lunar craters, quadrant ii

Observable properties of craters in second lunar quadran

Absence of a consistent classical equation of motion for a mass-renormalized point charge

The restrictions of analyticity, relativistic (Born) rigidity, and negligible O(a) terms involved in the evaluation of the self electromagnetic force on an extended charged sphere of radius "a" are explicitly revealed and taken into account in order to obtain a classical equation of motion of the extended charge that is both causal and conserves momentum-energy. Because the power-series expansion used in the evaluation of the self force becomes invalid during transition time intervals immediately following the application and termination of an otherwise analytic externally applied force, transition forces must be included during these transition time intervals to remove the noncausal pre-acceleration and pre-deceleration from the solutions to the equation of motion without the transition forces. For the extended charged sphere, the transition forces can be chosen to maintain conservation of momentum-energy in the causal solutions to the equation of motion within the restrictions of relativistic rigidity and negligible O(a) terms under which the equation of motion is derived. However, it is shown that renormalization of the electrostatic mass to a finite value as the radius of the charge approaches zero introduces a violation of momentum-energy conservation into the causal solutions to the equation of motion of the point charge if the magnitude of the external force becomes too large. That is, the causal classical equation of motion of a point charge with renormalized mass experiences a high acceleration catastrophe.Comment: 13 pages, No figure

Emergence of long memory in stock volatility from a modified Mike-Farmer model

The Mike-Farmer (MF) model was constructed empirically based on the continuous double auction mechanism in an order-driven market, which can successfully reproduce the cubic law of returns and the diffusive behavior of stock prices at the transaction level. However, the volatility (defined by absolute return) in the MF model does not show sound long memory. We propose a modified version of the MF model by including a new ingredient, that is, long memory in the aggressiveness (quantified by the relative prices) of incoming orders, which is an important stylized fact identified by analyzing the order flows of 23 liquid Chinese stocks. Long memory emerges in the volatility synthesized from the modified MF model with the DFA scaling exponent close to 0.76, and the cubic law of returns and the diffusive behavior of prices are also produced at the same time. We also find that the long memory of order signs has no impact on the long memory property of volatility, and the memory effect of order aggressiveness has little impact on the diffusiveness of stock prices.Comment: 6 pages, 6 figures and 1 tabl

Competition in Social Networks: Emergence of a Scale-free Leadership Structure and Collective Efficiency

Using the minority game as a model for competition dynamics, we investigate the effects of inter-agent communications on the global evolution of the dynamics of a society characterized by competition for limited resources. The agents communicate across a social network with small-world character that forms the static substrate of a second network, the influence network, which is dynamically coupled to the evolution of the game. The influence network is a directed network, defined by the inter-agent communication links on the substrate along which communicated information is acted upon. We show that the influence network spontaneously develops hubs with a broad distribution of in-degrees, defining a robust leadership structure that is scale-free. Furthermore, in realistic parameter ranges, facilitated by information exchange on the network, agents can generate a high degree of cooperation making the collective almost maximally efficient.Comment: 4 pages, 2 postscript figures include