Output measurement in the Scottish budget

The publication of the new spending plans for Scotland (Scottish Executive 2004a) after the debate on Spending Review 2004 was greeted in journalistic and political circles as but the latest exercise in government spin. The Herald's Scottish political correspondent (Gordon, 2004) inferred that the dropping of 138 targets was part of a Machiavellian exercise of control of information to cloud the process of accountability, and as greater transparency and efficiency in public spending was central to the rationale for targets, then clearly if correct, this was a major issue of public concern. The practice of target-setting by the Executive however, requires the reconsideration of targets in each Spending Review and their replacement as appropriate, whether by more relevant measures or to reflect new priorities. In this case, there was no presentational spin

Why the application of resource accounting and budgeting did not distort the 2002 strategic review of water charges in Scotland

The recent paper by J and M Cuthbert continues the arguments they made earlier in the Commentary that errors in the application of Resource Accounting and Budgeting led to water customers being “overcharged”. Moreover, whilst the “implementation of the new control regime was meant to be neutral, the amount of borrowing available to the water industry under the new regime was clearly very restrictive compared to the borrowing limits applied to the industry” (Cuthbert and Cuthbert 2003; 2006)

The physical world as a virtual reality: a prima facie case

This paper explores the idea that the universe is a virtual reality created by information processing, and relates this strange idea to the findings of modern physics about the physical world. The virtual reality concept is familiar to us from online worlds, but the world as a virtual reality is usually a subject for science fiction rather than science. Yet logically the world could be an information simulation running on a three-dimensional space-time screen. Indeed, that the essence of the universe is information has advantages, e.g. if matter, charge, energy and movement are aspects of information, the many conservation laws could become a single law of conservation of information. If the universe were a virtual reality, its creation at the big bang would no longer be paradoxical, as every virtual system must be booted up. It is suggested that whether the world is an objective or a virtual reality is a matter for science to resolve, and computer science could help. If one could derive core properties like space, time, light, matter and movement from information processing, such a model could reconcile relativity and quantum theories, with the former being how information processing creates space-time, and the latter how it creates energy and matter

The Royal Navy and economic warfare in North America, 1812-1815

This study examines the evolution of offensive and defensive maritime economic warfare and the Royal Navy’s use of commercial and naval blockades and mercantile convoys during successive wars, particularly its successful use by Britain in the Anglo-American war of 1812-15. Its legality, tactical and strategic development and contemporary government policy, including impressments are studied. Comparison is made of the nature and development of the British and American economies, their vulnerability to economic warfare and the expediency of its use by Britain against the United States discussed. Legal and practical constraints upon British convoys and blockades are studied and practical solutions reviewed. Economic aspects of the causes, conduct and effects of the war are surveyed, including the impact of Britain’s commercial blockade on American commercial, fiscal, financial, economic and political infrastructures, and therefore the United States’ ability and preparedness to continue fighting. The effectiveness of the naval blockade supplementing Britain’s commercial blockade of the United States is also assessed. The long-standing problem of the relative effects of British commercial blockade, and the at times contemporaneous American legislative ‘restricting system’ is resolved by comparison of current New England commodity prices at specific times. Prices before the repeal of Madison’s second Embargo are compared with subsequent prices, and with those after the British blockades are later extended to neutral trade with New England. The effectiveness of British economic warfare on the American economy under two successive commanders is evaluated. An objective assessment of the strategy’s eventual impact on the war’s outcome and later policies is made, and of how far each belligerent’s war aims were met by the negotiated peace. The effectiveness of Britain’s use of economic warfare against the United States has long been seriously under-estimated

How does insect resistance to phosphine affect insect control costs of stored-grain?

Crop Production/Industries,

Development of artificial neural network-based classifiers to identify military impulse noise

Noise monitoring stations are in place around some military installations, to provide records that assist in processing noise complaints and damage claims. However, they are known to produce false positives and miss many impulse events. In this thesis, classifiers based on artificial neural networks were developed to improve the accuracy of military impulse noise identification. Two time-domain metrics, kurtosis and crest factor, and two custom frequency-domain metrics, spectral slope and weighted square error, were selected as inputs to the artificial neural networks. A separate effort attempted to identify military impulse noise by the shape of the recorded waveform. The classification algorithm achieved up to 100% accuracy on the training data and the validation data

The Relationship Between Calibration, Mindset, Mathematics Anxiety and Achievement in Pre-Service Elementary Teachers

According to most recent studies in mathematics education, mathematics anxiety is highly prevalent in students’ learning, and in fact has significant negative relationship with mathematics achievement. Thus, as educators we need to understand the factors that explain the relationship between mathematics anxiety and achievement to find any insights for increasing mathematics achievement. This dissertation explored this particular issue through constructs, calibration and mindset, and their relationship with mathematics anxiety and achievement of pre-service elementary teachers. The dissertation has three manuscripts with the first two manuscripts focusing on the relationship between calibration, mathematics anxiety and achievement, and the third manuscript focusing on mindset and its relationship with the other three constructs. To examine these constructs in the first study, the 129 participants took mathematics anxiety and demographics surveys before their first and last exam, while they filled out self-efficacy surveys before each of their exam. For the second study, the 142 participants took mathematics anxiety and demographics surveys at the beginning and end of the semester. Additionally, self-efficacy and self-evaluation surveys were given right before and one class day or two after each exam. For the third study, the same procedure as the second study was followed with 321 participants, except a mindset survey was given with the mathematics anxiety and demographic surveys. Copies of the exams were collected after they were graded by the instructors for all three studies. Results of the studies revealed that calibration, mindset, and mathematics anxiety affected mathematics performance as supported by the literature where in these dissertation studies the pre-service elementary teachers have served as the population. Additionally, these four constructs are related to each other. Based on the metacognition theoretical framework and literature, the relationship seems to be that mindset may influence mathematics anxiety, calibration, and mathematics achievement while mathematics anxiety may influence calibration and mathematics achievement. Teachers might play an important influence on the relationship between the four constructs within the pre-service elementary teachers’ mathematics content courses. Given that different teachers have different styles regarding the teacher- and/or student-centered approach to teaching, of communication with the students, and of giving feedback to the students on presentations, assignments and assessments, this indicates that instructors of pre-service elementary teachers needs to be careful in their instruction methods in order to promote growth mindset, lower mathematics anxiety, and better calibration. This work also extends the methods of measuring and calculating calibration through the use of point values when measuring self-efficacy and self-evaluation instead of confidence measurements and working with open-ended questions on exams instead of multiple choice problems. Additionally, this research has implications for policy for mathematics content courses for pre-service elementary teacher population. One such implication is metacognitive habits of mind are not only important for understanding and learning mathematics but are also important for students to be life-long learners of mathematics as well as teachers of it by providing students with skills necessary for them to continually develop their thinking and understanding of the world

The extent and relevance of instrumentalism, constructivism and critical realism in high school physical science textbooks : a critical study

Instrumentalism is a philosophy of science which holds that scientific theories are merely useful fictions for making computative predictions. Its pragmatic purpose of 'saving the appearances' downgrades the role of theory in science. Realists, on the other hand, take the implications of theories seriously. This study investigates the attributes of both instrumentalism and realism, taking theory as its point of departure. It is pointed out that constructivism is closely related to instrumentalism, both being forms of pragmatism. Since both tend to concoct and relinquish theories too easily, they tend to be relativist and subjectivist. It is therefore concluded that neither instrumentalism, nor constructivism, nor empiricism is sufficient for a rounded science education. What is needed is a type of realism which acknowledges both the empirical physical world 'out there' and the constructivist nature of scientific knowledge. The naive (empiricist) realism so prevalent in school science textbooks cannot do this. It is contended that critical realism, and especially that of Bernard Lonergan, can meet this requirement. Reality is more than what is given in sensory experience. Therefore, in order to help solve the problem of relativism and subjectivity inherent in constructivism, we need to revise our notion of reality and objectivity. Twenty-three selected British, American, South African, and African Third World high school physical science textbooks were examined in detail to determine the extent of an instrumentalist philosophy in them. They were subjected to several textual analyses, including one especially devised for this study. The results reveal that our high school physical science textbooks do indeed contain a high degree of instrumentalism. This study postulates that this instrumentalism may be used to help pupils move towards realism. However, this needs to be augmented by a full-blooded critical realist approach which takes theoretical entities seriously. One way of doing this is through the use of suitable material in the preface of every textbook. Not only should the dangers of instrumentalism (and naive constructivism) be pointed out, but the role of theory in science should be emphasised. This may be achieved by simulations to encourage growth of models and theories, historical case studies involving theory-development, and additional reading of scientists in action. Some examples of these are provided