The Oil Supply and Demand Context for Security of Oil Supply to the EU from the GCC Countries

In examining the prospects for oil and gas supply from the GCC countries, we draw on the evidence that the supply of oil and gas from the region has been relatively reliable, notwithstanding the region’s perceived political instability. The approach taken here starts from this empirical observation; namely, that supply from the region will be available when called upon, as it has in the past. Oil and gas are of central importance to the economies of most GCC countries. Hydrocarbons provide the basis on which to gradually diversify GCC economies. Continued hydrocarbon-based economic growth provides the platform for economic diversification which can in turn underpin internal social and political cohesion and stability of these countries. Broadly speaking, Russia and the rest of the FSU will increasingly dominate the world’s oil supply outside OPEC and the Middle East, while China, India and North America will continue to determine oil demand. The political evolution of the FSU and the economic evolution, and macroeconomic policy making in particular, of the big Asian countries and the United States will be the determinants of the prospects for the call of GCC oil. Two scenarios of oil supply and demand; namely, Russia’s oil supply falters while China’s demand soars, versus Russia’s oil supply soars while China’s demand collapses, present two totally different outcomes for the economies of the GCC, and specifically affecting their ability to invest in their comparative advantages and diversify their economies. Paradoxically then, the internal prospects of the Middle East depend on external developments. Thus, this analysis looks outside for a basis to develop propositions for the inside with respect to, for example, ‘How much of the global oil and gas markets can GCC countries count on supplying?’Oil, Demand, Supply, Security, GCC

Exploration of Future Risks on the Global Market for Oil, Coal and Uranium

This study is divided into four sections. The first section deals with the issues and definitions that relate to the meaning of security of supply. The following three sections deal in turn with the risks to future supply for oil, coal and uranium. The analysis has examined the impact that supply disruptions have had in the past, the events that have disturbed energy supply and the affect that they have had on prices, on the economy and on society. For each commodity we have analysed the political, economic, institutional and technical risks and have qualitatively assessed the impact that each might have on the two price scenarios provided by the CPB. We also discuss the policy responses that governments have adopted in the aftermath of supply disruptions.Energy, Security, Supply,

Stratigraphic Architecture and Sediment Facies of the Western Oak Ridges Moraine, Humber River Watershed, Southern Ontario

The Oak Ridges Moraine in southern Ontario is a ca. 160 km long east-west trending ridge of sand and gravel situated north of Lake Ontario. Study of the Oak Ridges Moraine in the Humber River watershed was undertaken to assess its role in the groundwater system of the buried Laurentian Valley. The Oak Ridges Moraine is interpreted to have been deposited in three stages. Stage I records rapid deposition from hyperconcentrated flows where tunnel channels discharged into a subglacial lake in the Lake Ontario basin. Low-energy basin sedimentation of Stage II was in a subglacial and ice-contact setting of a highly crevassed ice sheet. Stage III sedimentation is characterized by rapid facies changes associated with esker, subaqueous fan, and basinal sedimentation. Detailed sediment analysis challenges the concept that the Oak Ridges Moraine was deposited principally from seasonal meltwater discharges, climatic modulated ice-marginal fluctuations, or in an interlobate position. Instead it is interpreted to have formed in response to late-glacial ice sheet events associated with subglacial meltwater ponding, episodic and catastrophic subglacial meltwater discharge, and subsequent seasonal meltwater discharge. The moraine probably formed as the glacial-hydraulic system re-equilibrated to the presence of a thinned, grounded ice shelf and a subglacial lake in the Lake Ontario basin.La moraine de Oak Ridges, sud de l’Ontario, est une crête de sable et de gravier orientée est-ouest d’une longueur de 160 km au nord du lac Ontario. L’étude de la moraine de Oak Ridges dans le bassin de la rivière Humber permet de comprendre son rôle dans le système de drainage de la vallée Laurentienne. La moraine de Oak Ridges a été édifiée en trois phases. La phase I consiste en une sédimentation rapide par hyperconcentration des écoulements, où les chenaux en tunnel se déversent dans un lac sous-glaciaire du lac Ontario. Le bassin de sédimentation de faible énergie de la phase II est sous-glaciaire et touche à un inlandsis ayant d’importantes crevasses. La phase III se caractérise par un changement de faciès très rapide, par la présence d’eskers, de cônes aquatiques et de bassins sédimentaires. Les analyses sédimentaires détaillées ébranlent l’hypothèse que la moraine de Oak Ridges ait été formée par la fonte des glaces saisonnière, les fluctuations climatiques près des marges glaciaires, ou dans une position interlobaire. Notre interprétation indique plutôt qu’elle a été mise en place en réponse à des événements de fonte sous-glaciaire de nature épisodique et catastrophique, et par des apports subséquents d’eau de fonte saisonnière. La moraine s’est probablement formée lors de la ré-équilibration du système glacio-hydraulique en présence d’un inlandsis mince, en contact avec le substrat et alimentant un lac sous-glaciaire dans le bassin du lac Ontario

Plasticity varies with boldness in a weakly-electric fish

BACKGROUND: The expression of animal personality is indicated by patterns of consistency in individual behaviour. Often, the differences exhibited between individuals are consistent across situations. However, between some situations, this can be biased by variable levels of individual plasticity. The interaction between individual plasticity and animal personality can be illustrated by examining situation-sensitive personality traits such as boldness (i.e. risk-taking and exploration tendency). For the weakly electric fish Gnathonemus petersii, light condition is a major factor influencing behaviour. Adapted to navigate in low-light conditions, this species chooses to be more active in dark environments where risk from visual predators is lower. However, G. petersii also exhibit individual differences in their degree of behavioural change from light to dark. The present study, therefore, aims to examine if an increase of motivation to explore in the safety of the dark, not only affects mean levels of boldness, but also the variation between individuals, as a result of differences in individual plasticity. RESULTS: Boldness was consistent between a novel-object and a novel-environment situation in bright light. However, no consistency in boldness was noted between a bright (risky) and a dark (safe) novel environment. Furthermore, there was a negative association between boldness and the degree of change across novel environments, with shier individuals exhibiting greater behavioural plasticity. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights that individual plasticity can vary with personality. In addition, the effect of light suggests that variation in boldness is situation specific. Finally, there appears to be a trade-off between personality and individual plasticity with shy but plastic individuals minimizing costs when perceiving risk and bold but stable individuals consistently maximizing rewards, which can be maladaptive. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12983-016-0154-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Properties of separable Banach-valued martingales

This thesis is conerned with the extension of the classical theory of martingales of real random variables as contained in Doob [4] to the abstract theory of martingales of random variables whose values lie in a real Banach space. Extensions of almost all the convergence theorems in [4] for discrete parameter martingales can be found in Chatterji [1] and [2], Scalora [10], Tulcea and Tulcea [12], and Driml and Hans [5]. In addition to extending the existing theory this thesis also attempts to further the correlation between the abstract and classical theories. To pursue this aim I follow much of the development of [4] and show how frequently its proofs can be abstracted in a straight forward manner. To do this satisfactorily, it has been necessary to define and use a type of measurability for a Banach-valued function analogous to the type of measurability for a real-valued function used in [4]. In chapters 2 and 3 I demonstrate the properties of such a measurable function and those of its conditional expectations

Predictors of treatment non-adherence in an inpatient substance abuse rehabilitation programme

The research study aimed to identify the factors contributing to premature termination of treatment for substance addiction. Opsomming Die doel van die navorsingsprojek was om faktore wat bydra tot premature staking van dwelmrehabilitasie te identifiseer. *Please note: This is a reduced version of the abstract. Please refer to PDF for full text