Spatio-temporal patterns of gun violence in Syracuse, New York 2009-2015.

Gun violence in the United States of America is a large public health problem that disproportionately affects urban areas. The epidemiology of gun violence reflects various aspects of an infectious disease including spatial and temporal clustering. We examined the spatial and temporal trends of gun violence in Syracuse, New York, a city of 145,000. We used a spatial scan statistic to reveal spatio-temporal clusters of gunshots investigated and corroborated by Syracuse City Police Department for the years 2009-2015. We also examined predictors of areas with increased gun violence using a multi-level zero-inflated Poisson regression with data from the 2010 census. Two space-time clusters of gun violence were revealed in the city. Higher rates of segregation, poverty and the summer months were all associated with increased risk of gun violence. Previous gunshots in the area were associated with a 26.8% increase in the risk of gun violence. Gun violence in Syracuse, NY is both spatially and temporally stable, with some neighborhoods of the city greatly afflicted

Culturally congruent mentorship can reduce disruptive behavior among elementary school students: results from a pilot study

Abstract Background Our study objective was to examine the feasibility of implementing a culturally congruent mentorship pilot program, Youth-First (YF), that targets behavior modification among elementary school-aged children with disruptive behavior and a history of school suspension. We hypothesize that it is feasible to implement the YF program to reduce disruptive behaviors and recidivism of level III/IV infractions in school settings among at-risk African American students. Methods We assessed program feasibility based on the success of program acceptance by parents/guardians, study enrollment, and intervention compliance by students. A pre/posttest study design was used to examine whether the YF program reduced recidivism of disruptive behavior among enrolled at-risk African American elementary school children between September 2016 and January 2017. Generalized linear mixed models examined whether student behavioral scores improved over time and varied by program mentor. A McNemar test examined the reduction in cumulative incidence of level III/IV infractions pre-post YF program intervention. Results Intervention acceptance, enrollment, and compliance were 100% (95% confidence interval [CI] 86 to 100%), 100% (95% CI 86 to 100%), and 67% (95% CI 45 to 84%), respectively (N = 24). Overall, student behavioral scores improved and plateaued over time (Time2 effect: b = − 0.01, 95% CI − 0.02, < 0.01); a two-week period was associated with a seven-point improvement (effect size: Cohen’s d = 0.47, 95% CI 0.03, 0.94) in behavioral scores. Behavioral score improvements were class-specific, based on respectfulness behavior (b = 0.11, 95% CI < 0.01, 0.26). No recidivism of level III/IV infractions was reported during and post YF intervention. Conclusion The integration of culturally congruent mentorship in elementary school-settings is feasible and can reduce risk of disruptive behaviors among at-risk African American students. Future studies should use randomized clinical trials to determine the effectiveness of culturally congruent mentorship interventions (void of potential selection and confounding biases) in reducing disruptive behavior, level III/IV infractions, and school suspensions among at-risk children

Temporal trends in gunshots in the city of Syracuse, January 2009–June 2015.

<p>A) gunshots per month over time, B) gunshots per month each year, C) gunshots per hour each year.</p

Results from a zero-inflated Poisson regression model showing factors associated with gunshots in census block group-months.

<p>Results from a zero-inflated Poisson regression model showing factors associated with gunshots in census block group-months.</p

Frequency of gun violence in census block groups January 2009–July 2015.

<p>Frequency of gun violence in census block groups January 2009–July 2015.</p

Revealed spatio-temporal clusters of the incidence of gunshots between January 2009 and June 2015.

<p>Cluster A was detected from Jan 2009 through July 2012, luster B was detected from Aug 2012 through July 2015, cluster C was detected from Aug 2011 through July 2014, cluster D was detected from January 2009 through July 2012, and cluster E was detected from August 2012 through July 2015.</p

Map of Syracuse, NY depicting gunshots investigated by the police department between January 2009 and July 2015.

<p>Map is backdropped against an Open Street Map layer.</p