Making Progress in Forecasting

Twenty-five years ago, the International Institute of Forecasters was established “to bridge the gap between theory and practice.” Its primary vehicle was the Journal of Forecasting and is now the International Journal of Forecasting. The Institute emphasizes empirical comparisons of reasonable forecasting approaches. Such studies can be used to identify the best forecasting procedures to use under given conditions, a process we call evidence-based forecasting. Unfortunately, evidence-based forecasting meets resistance from academics and practitioners when the findings differ from currently accepted beliefs. As a consequence, although much progress has been made in developing improved forecasting methods, the diffusion of useful forecasting methods has been disappointing. To bridge the gap between theory and practice, we recommend a stronger emphasis on the method of multiple hypotheses and on invited replications of important research. It is then necessary to translate the findings into principles that are easy to understand and apply. The Internet and software provide important opportunities for making the latest findings available to researchers and practitioners. Because researchers and practitioners believe that their areas are unique, we should organize findings so that they are relevant to each area and make them easily available when people search for information about forecasting in their area. Organisational barriers to change still remain to be overcome. Research into the specific issues faced when forecasting remains a priority

Evaluation of Extrapolative Forecasting Methods: Results of a Survey of Academicians and Practitioners

There exists a large number of quantitative extrapolative forecasting methods which may be applied in research work or implemented in an organizational setting. For instance, the lead article of this issue of the Journal of Forecasting compares the ability to forecast the future of over twenty univariate forecasting methods. Forecasting researchers in various academic disciplines as well as practitioners in private or public organizations are commonly faced with the problem of evaluating forecasting methods and ultimately selecting one. Thereafter, most become advocates of the method they have selected. On what basis are choices made? More specifically, what are the criteria used or the dimensions judged important? If a survey was taken among academicians and practitioners, would the same criteria arise? Would they be weighted equally? Before you continue reading this note, write on a piece of paper your criteria in order of importance and answer the last two questions. This will enable you to see whether or not you share the same values as your colleagues and test the accuracy of your perception.extrapolation, forecasting, extrapolative forecasting method

Correspondence On the Selection of Error Measures for Comparisons Among Forecasting Methods

Clements and Hendry (1993) proposed the Generalized Forecast Error Second Moment (GFESM) as an improvement to the Mean Square Error in comparing forecasting performance across data series. They based their conclusion on the fact that rankings based on GFESM remain unaltered if the series are linearly transformed. In this paper, we argue that this evaluation ignores other important criteria. Also, their conclusions were illustrated by a simulation study whose relationship to real data was not obvious. Thirdly, prior empirical studies show that the mean square error is an inappropriate measure to serve as a basis for comparison. This undermines the claims made for the GFESM.Accuracy Forecast evaluation Loss functions

The global pediatrician: is there such a person, or can there be?

As pediatricians, our concern for the health of children and youth starts with our individual encounters with patients and their families and extends to the community in which they live and the broader systems of society that influence their health. This concept of a pediatrician is captured in one of the “bibles” of our profession and in the words of Richard Behrman when he defines pediatrics as being “concerned with the health of infants, children, and adolescents, their growth and development, and their opportunity to achieve full potential as adults.”1 Health, growth and development, and opportunity as adults encompass the breadth and importance of our interests and responsibilities

Le développement des droits miniers au Québec à la fin du XIXe siècle

This paper examines the forces at work in shaping the definition of mining rights in Quebec at the end of the 19th century. Using the Davis-North model of institutional change and some insights from the theory of rent-seeking, the author attempts to identify the origins of the provincial legal framework which has been in force since the turn of the century

Development and collapse of an Oscillatoria bloom in Loch Leven during July 1994

During 1994, weekly spot-sampling of open water sites on Loch Leven took place from 16th March onwards. Very little difference between spot-sampling sites was observed from 16th March to 5th July. Throughout April and May there was a slow increase in levels of chlorophyll-a, followed by a rapid increase through June, reaching a maximum of 230 micrograms per litre. On 8th July there was a very rapid rise in water temperature, with a corresponding increase in dissolved oxygen and pH. At 0915 hours on 9th July there was a drop in all three variables. These changes were coincident with a marked reduction in chlorophyll-a values falling to 70 micrograms per litre on 12th July. On 16th July evidence of a resurgence of photosynthesis was observed

Role Conflict: Society’s Dilemma with Excellence in Marketing

In recent years, the American market system has come under increasing criticism from those it serves. Many young people, radicals, members of minority groups and even middle-of-the-roaders are concerned about such things as poor product quality, poor variety, unsafe products. and misleading advertising. From almost any vantage point, flaws in the American economic system are visible.role conflict, marketing, society, dilemma