Deep learning for the Sun

Abstract John A Armstrong, Christopher M J Osborne and Lyndsay Fletcher examine how neural networks can be used to explore the nature and location of solar activity

Identifying multiple stressor controls on phytoplankton dynamics in the River Thames (UK) using high-frequency water quality data

River phytoplankton blooms can pose a serious risk to water quality and the structure and function of aquatic ecosystems. Developing a greater understanding of the physical and chemical controls on the timing, magnitude and duration of blooms is essential for the effective management of phytoplankton development. Five years of weekly water quality monitoring data along the River Thames, southern England were combined with hourly chlorophyll concentration (a proxy for phytoplankton biomass), flow, temperature and daily sunlight data from the mid-Thames. Weekly chlorophyll data was of insufficient temporal resolution to identify the causes of short term variations in phytoplankton biomass. However, hourly chlorophyll data enabled identification of thresholds in water temperature (between 9 and 19 °C) and flow (<30 m3 s−1) that explained the development of phytoplankton populations. Analysis showed that periods of high phytoplankton biomass and growth rate only occurred when these flow and temperature conditions were within these thresholds, and coincided with periods of long sunshine duration, indicating multiple stressor controls. Nutrient concentrations appeared to have no impact on the timing or magnitude of phytoplankton bloom development, but severe depletion of dissolved phosphorus and silicon during periods of high phytoplankton biomass may have contributed to some bloom collapses through nutrient limitation. This study indicates that for nutrient enriched rivers such as the Thames,manipulating residence time (through removing impoundments) and light/temperature (by increasing riparian tree shading) may offer more realistic solutions than reducing phosphorus concentrations for controlling excessive phytoplankton biomass

A LUNAR POWER PLANT

A concept of a nuclear power plant to be assembled on earth and operated on the moon is presented. The two principal design objectives are reliability and high specific power. Wherever there is an incompatibility between these two objectives, the decision favors reliability. The design is based on the premise that the power plant must be designed on the basis of current technology and with a minimum amount of research and development. The principal components consist of a fast reactor in a direct cycle with a mercury-vapor turbine. The high- frequency generator, hydrogen compressor for the generator cooling system, mercury-recirculating pump, and condensate pump are on an extension of the turbine shaft. Ths mercury vapor is condensed and the hydrogen cooled in wing radiators. The reactor is of a construction quite similar to EBR-I Mark IlI for which there is a large amount of operating experience. The radiator is a vertical tube-and-fin type built in concentric cylindrical sections of increseing diameter. The curved headers are connected by swivel joints so that, upon arrival, the radiator can be quickly unfolded from the compact cylindrical package it formed during transportation. (auth

Dispersive properties of quasi-phase-matched optical parametric amplifiers

The dispersive properties of non-degenerate optical parametric amplification in quasi-phase-matched (QPM) nonlinear quadratic crystals with an arbitrary grating profile are theoretically investigated in the no-pump-depletion limit. The spectral group delay curve of the amplifier is shown to be univocally determined by its spectral power gain curve through a Hilbert transform. Such a constraint has important implications on the propagation of spectrally-narrow optical pulses through the amplifier. In particular, it is shown that anomalous transit times, corresponding to superluminal or even negative group velocities, are possible near local minima of the spectral gain curve. A possible experimental observation of such effects using a QPM Lithium-Niobate crystal is suggested.Comment: submitted for publicatio

Campanian paleoseismites of the ELK basin anticline, northern bighorn basin, U.S.A.: A record of initial laramide deformation

Paleoseismites, in the form of clastic dikes and sills and convolute bedding record syndepositional tectonism prior to lithification, fold growth, and onset of major orogenic events. The Elk Basin anticline, located in the northern portion of the Bighorn Basin, contains paleoseismites in Campanian strata along its eastern (forelimb) and western (back limb) margins. In the shallow-marine Telegraph Creek and Claggett formations, convolute bedding typically involves individual sandstone beds with vertical to overturned strata on either side of a nearly vertical vent, whereas the nonmarine Eagle Formation contains planar clastic dikes and sills, derived from liquefied sand-source beds, and convoluted bedding involving distorted laminae. Planar clastic dikes and sills were injected upward and laterally across overlying strata, and along pre-existing, nearly vertical, near-surface joints. Geographically, clastic dikes and sills are present only in the central portion of the anticline, while convoluted-bedding is present in the central and southern portions. Comparison of 145 clastic-dike measurements with 61 previously reported Laramide joint-set orientations for the Elk Basin demonstrate trends to be similar. Clastic dikes preferentially fill cross joints oriented normal to the axial trace of the anticline, while strike joints illustrate a dominant later Laramide joint set oriented subparallel to the axial trace. Paleoseismite formation is consistent with ~ M 5.5 earthquakes during earliest Laramide deformation associated with development of the Elk Basin thrust fault, whereas strike joints formed during subsequent Laramide deformation after burial and cementation of Campanian strata

Cost-effectiveness analysis of new generation coronary CT scanners for difficult-to-image patients

Aims: New generation dual-source coronary CT (NGCCT) scanners with more than 64 slices were evaluated for patients with (known) or suspected of coronary artery disease (CAD) who are difficult to image: obese, coronary calcium score > 400, arrhythmias, previous revascularization, heart rate > 65 beats per minute, and intolerance of betablocker. A cost-effectiveness analysis of NGCCT compared with invasive coronary angiography (ICA) was performed for these difficult-to-image patients for England and Wales. Methods and results: Five models (diagnostic decision model, four Markov models for CAD progression, stroke, radiation and general population) were integrated to estimate the cost-effectiveness of NGCCT for both suspected and known CAD populations. The lifetime costs and effects from the National Health Service perspective were estimated for three strategies: (1) patients diagnosed using ICA, (2) using NGCCT, and (3) patients diagnosed using a combination of NGCCT and, if positive, followed by ICA. In the suspected population, the strategy where patients only undergo a NGCCT is a cost-effective option at accepted cost-effectiveness thresholds. The strategy of using NGCCT in combination with ICA is the most favourable strategy for patients with known CAD. The most influential factors behind these results are the percentage of patients being misclassified (a function of both diagnostic accuracy and the prior likelihood), the complication rates of the procedures, and the cost price of a NGCCT scan. Conclusion: The use of NGCCT might be considered cost-effective in both populations since it is cost-saving compared to ICA and generates similar effects

Ab initio many-body calculations on infinite carbon and boron-nitrogen chains

In this paper we report first-principles calculations on the ground-state electronic structure of two infinite one-dimensional systems: (a) a chain of carbon atoms and (b) a chain of alternating boron and nitrogen atoms. Meanfield results were obtained using the restricted Hartree-Fock approach, while the many-body effects were taken into account by second-order M{\o}ller-Plesset perturbation theory and the coupled-cluster approach. The calculations were performed using 6-31$G^{**}$ basis sets, including the d-type polarization functions. Both at the Hartree-Fock (HF) and the correlated levels we find that the infinite carbon chain exhibits bond alternation with alternating single and triple bonds, while the boron-nitrogen chain exhibits equidistant bonds. In addition, we also performed density-functional-theory-based local density approximation (LDA) calculations on the infinite carbon chain using the same basis set. Our LDA results, in contradiction to our HF and correlated results, predict a very small bond alternation. Based upon our LDA results for the carbon chain, which are in agreement with an earlier LDA calculation calculation [ E.J. Bylaska, J.H. Weare, and R. Kawai, Phys. Rev. B 58, R7488 (1998).], we conclude that the LDA significantly underestimates Peierls distortion. This emphasizes that the inclusion of many-particle effects is very important for the correct description of Peierls distortion in one-dimensional systems.Comment: 3 figures (included). To appear in Phys. Rev.

Ramucirumab for Treating Advanced Gastric Cancer or Gastro-Oesophageal Junction Adenocarcinoma Previously Treated with Chemotherapy

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited the company that manufactures ramucirumab (Cyramza®, Eli Lilly and Company) to submit evidence of the clinical and cost effectiveness of the drug administered alone (monotherapy) or with paclitaxel (combination therapy) for treating adults with advanced gastric cancer or gastro-oesophageal junction (GC/GOJ) adenocarcinoma that were previously treated with chemotherapy, as part of the Institute’s single technology appraisal (STA) process. Kleijnen Systematic Reviews Ltd (KSR), in collaboration with Erasmus University Rotterdam, was commissioned to act as the Evidence Review Group (ERG). This paper describes the company’s submission, the ERG review, and NICE’s subsequent decisions. Clinical effectiveness evidence for ramucirumab monotherapy (RAM), compared with best supportive care (BSC), was based on data from the REGARD trial. Clinical effectiveness evidence for ramucirumab combination therapy (RAM + PAC), compared with paclitaxel monotherapy (PAC), was based on data from the RAINBOW trial. In addition, the company undertook a network meta-analysis (NMA) to compare RAM + PAC with BSC and docetaxel. Cost-ef

Lenalidomide for the Treatment of Low- or Intermediate-1-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes Associated with Deletion 5q Cytogenetic Abnormality: An Evidence Review of the NICE Submission from Celgene

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited the manufacturer of lenalidomide (Celgene) to submit evidence of the clinical and cost effectiveness of the drug for treating adults with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) associated with deletion 5q cytogenetic abnormality, as part of the Institute’s single technology appraisal (STA) process. Kleijnen Systematic Reviews Ltd (KSR), in collaboration with Erasmus University Rotterdam, was commissioned to act as the Evidence Review Group (ERG). This paper describes the company’s submission, the ERG review, and the NICE’s subsequent decisions. The ERG reviewed the evidence for clinical and cost effectiveness of the technology, as submitted by the manufacturer to the NICE. The ERG searched for relevant additional evidence and validated the manufacturer’s decision analytic model to examine the robustness of the cost-effectiveness results. Clinical effectiveness was obtained from a three-arm, European, randomized, phase III trial among red blood cell (RBC) transfusion-dependent patients with low-/intermediate-1-risk del5q31 MDS. The primary endpoint was RBC independence for ≥26 weeks, and was reached by a higher proportion of patients in the lenalidomide 10 and 5 mg groups compared with placebo (56.1 and 42.6 vs 5.9 %, respectively; both p < 0.001). The option of dose adjustments after 16 weeks due to dose-limiting toxicities or lack of response made long-term effectiveness estimates unreliable, e.g. overall survival (OS). The de novo model of the manufacturer included a Markov state-transition cost-utility model implemented in Microsoft Excel. The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the manufacturer was £56,965. The ERG assessment indicated that the modeling structure represented the course of the disease; however, a few errors were identified and some of the input parameters were challenged. In response to the appraisal documentation, the company revised the economic model, which increased the ICER to £68,125 per quality-adjusted life-year. The NICE Appraisal Committee (AC) did not recommend lenalidomide as a cost-effective treatment. Subsequently, the manufacturer submitted a Patient Access Scheme (PAS) that provided lenalidomide free of charge for patients who remained on treatment after 26 cycles. This PAS improved the ICER to £25,300, although the AC considered the proportion of patients who received treatment beyond 26 cycles, and hence the ICER, to be uncertain. Nevertheless, the AC accepted a commitment from the manufacturer to publish, once available, data on the proport

Covariance of Antiproton Yield and Source Size in Nuclear Collisions

We confront for the first time the widely-held belief that combined event-by-event information from quark gluon plasma signals can reduce the ambiguity of the individual signals. We illustrate specifically how the measured antiproton yield combined with the information from pion-pion HBT correlations can be used to identify novel event classes.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, improved title, references and readability; results unchange