GAMMA; a simulation model for ageing, pensions and public finances

To answer policy questions that have intergenerational implications, a computable simulation model should obey four conditions, it should: incorporate long-term demographic developments; include a detailed modelling of the public sector; decompose the population into several generations; account for the behaviour of the various economic agents. This document describes and illustrates a model that meets all these conditions. It is an applied general equilibrium model that is based on generational accounting principles named GAMMA (Generational Accounting Model with Maximizing Agents).

The impact of demographic uncertainty on public finances in the Netherlands

This paper presents stochastic simulations, i.e. simulations that combine the CGE model of the Dutch economy GAMMA with stochastic population projections, to quantify uncertainties surrounding the consequences of population ageing for Dutch public finances. The expected increase in the ratio of retirees to workers that is due to population ageing is sure to increase pressure on public finances and the Dutch economy in the coming decades. However, because of the uncertainty regarding future demographic developments, the exact extent of the problem is unknown. This paper quantifies the�uncertainties by stochastic simulation.

Influences on Attitudes to a Personal Carbon Trading System

There are mixed attitudes to the affect Personal Carbon Trading (PCT) can have on global warming and carbon emissions. The NICHE (Norfolk Island Carbon Health Evaluation) project has been developed to explore attitudes towards PCT. The researchers have designed the project to investigate links between health, obesity and an individual’s carbon footprint. The first stages of the project undertaken in 2012 involve development of point-of-sale applications, personal carbon consumption web site and collection of data to establish a baseline measuring key health indicators and attitudes to climate change and PCT. This paper reports the findings from the correlation analysis of the key variables from the baseline survey. Correlation analysis was used to examine relationships among the variables. The significant relationships identified from the baseline survey will be re-examined in the latter stages of the project during 2014

The importance of dynamic risk constraints for limited liability operators

Previous literature shows that prevalent risk measures such as Value at Risk or Expected Shortfall are ineffective to curb excessive risk-taking by a tail-risk-seeking trader with S-shaped utility function in the context of portfolio optimisation. However, these conclusions hold only when the constraints are static in the sense that the risk measure is just applied to the terminal portfolio value. In this paper, we consider a portfolio optimisation problem featuring S-shaped utility and a dynamic risk constraint which is imposed throughout the entire trading horizon. Provided that the risk control policy is sufficiently strict relative to the Sharpe ratio of the asset, the trader’s portfolio strategies and the resulting maximal expected utility can be effectively constrained by a dynamic risk measure. Finally, we argue that dynamic risk constraints might still be ineffective if the trader has access to a derivatives market

Effects of temperature and irradiation damage on fracture around nanoindents

Indentation based fracture toughness measurements remain one of the fastest and most convenient ways of measuring fracture toughness and are widely used even though there are known inaccuracies with the methodologies used. In this work we use single crystal and monocrystalline silicon carbide to study the effects of temperature and irradiation damage on crack propagation and morphologies Please click Additional Files below to see the full abstract

The Public’s Case Against DTE Energy: Extracting Profits, inducing health harms, and damaging democracy

Together with our partners, MEJC and LittleSis, We The People Michigan finds that DTE has extracted profit from its customers through hundreds of thousands of shutoffs, the second highest amount of rate hikes in the country, and unnecessary power outages that leave customers without power. They have invested heavily in new fossil fuel power plants that place significant health burdens on customers while blocking renewable energy initiatives. Finally, this report digs into the campaign donations of DTE executives, board members, and PAC to reveal how they utilize dark money to advance their profit-driven agenda

A new hotspot for Temminck’s Red Colobus (Piliocolobus badius temminckii) in The Gambia: the feasibility of a community approach to conservation

The geographic range and abundance of Temminck’s red colobus, Piliocolobus badius temminckii, in The Gambia is not well documented. In March 2019, line transect surveys were conducted at a number of data deficient forests in The Gambia to establish species presence or absence, contribute to a greater understanding of the species at a national scale and identify prior- ity sites for conservation. One area around Sambel Kunda in the Central River Region was found to be exceptionally productive with an observed Temminck’s red colobus population of 587 individuals, a maximum group size of 60, and connectivity to robust populations along a riparian corridor to the east. Surveys were supported by the collation of community perceptions using prin- ciples of Rapid Assessment Program (RAP) methodology to evaluate the feasibility of an integrated community development and primate conservation project. The results of interviews and meetings in the Sambel Kunda area revealed an absence of hunting and increasing population trends for all primate species, including red colobus. Excepting the Central River Region, Temminck’s red colobus populations were otherwise in decline or locally extinct, predominantly as a result of indiscriminate hunting to protect agricultural crops. Meetings with the Village Development Committees confirmed that the greatest proximal threat to red colobus in the study area was the rapid escalation in forest clearance to produce charcoal for local markets and timber for export to offset climate-change-induced declines in agricultural revenues. Local Gambians are aware that they urgently need to adopt sustainable forestry practices to mitigate climate change impacts and protect timber and non-timber resources but are currently unsure how they would develop and implement such a model. Given the uncertainty and complex nature of the range-wide threats facing the red colobus populations, we suggest prioritizing the Sambel Kunda area as a site of international importance for the protection and recovery of this Critically Endangered species. A community approach to the conservation of red colobus in the Sambel Kunda area should be implemented without delay through site designation, capacity building for biodiversity monitoring, sustainable for- estry practices, community engagement and education and by growing awareness of Temminck’s red colobus as a flagship species