The Principle of Subsidiarity and Innovation Support Measures

Innovation is a policy area in which the European Union (EU) has the competence to support, coordinate and supplement Member States policies according to the new Lisbon Treaty (2007). The Member States (MS) have the primacy in this area and the principles of subsidiarity and proportionality are applicable to decide whether EU support, coordination or supplementation of MS policies is justified. This paper presents a detailed subsidiarity test. It is applied to three innovation support measures as part of the Entrepreneurship and Innovation Programme of the Competitiveness and Innovation Framework Programme of the European Commission. These measures are access to finance for the start-ups and growth of SMEs and investment in innovation activities, networks in support of business and innovation-community grants (new Enterprise Europe Network), and the Intellectual Property Rights Helpdesk.

Two quantative scenarios for the future of manufacturing in Europe

This paper presents two scenarios for the future of manufacturing in Europe with varying trends in globalisation, technological progress and energy efficiency. From these scenarios, we conclude that the trend towards a services economy is likely to continue with employment shifting away from manufacturing towards services. However, manufacturing production still grows and is important for trade in Europe. The sectors which are already the most open ones for international trade are also the ones mostly affected by this trend. These include chemicals, rubber and plastics, the combined machinery and equipment sectors, textiles and wearing apparel, and wood and other manufacturing. R&D policies and internal market policies in Europe can have strong positive impact on manufacturing. These policies do not alter the trend that Europe's share in global production and trade will continue to decline, but they do mitigate the overall decline, in particular in the chemicals, rubber and plastics, and combined machinery and equipment sectors.

A different approach to WTO negotiations in services

International negotiations on the liberalisation of service trade are concentrated at non-tariff barriers (NTBs). National government measures form important obstacles for service providers when they want to access foreign markets. International studies predict substantial welfare benefits from removing trade obstacles for services. Negotiations on lowering these obstacles are complicated because government regulations are seldom strictly oriented at keeping foreign firms out their domestic service markets. Some of them (e.g. quantity-based restrictions) are clearly at odds with WTO principles. We argue however that in most cases regulators primarily aimed at correcting domestic market failures with disregard for the potential repercussions for foreign providers of services. In negotiations this problem can be approached by introducing economic necessity tests, but that is a very long and tedious process. We propose a different negotiation approach based on lessons learned from WTO negotiations on agricultural support measures.

The new Lisbon Strategy: An estiamtion of the impact of reaching 5 Lisbon targets

The Lisbon strategy could reinvigorate Europe’s economy and boost employment. In 2000 the European leaders agreed to stimulate economic growth and employment and make Europe’s economy the most competitive in the world. If Europe would really reach the goals they set, Europe’s Gross Domestic Product could increase by 12 to 23% and employment by about 11%. This paper draws this conclusion after having analysed five of the most important Lisbon goals: the internal market for services, the reduction of administrative burdens, goals on improving human capital, the 3% target on research and development expenditures, and the 70% target on the employment rate. Using CPB’s general equilibrium model for the world economy we have simulated the consequences for Europe of reaching the Lisbon targets in these fields.Jobs creation; economic growth; Lisbon agenda: general equilibrium model

Regulatory heterogeneity as obstacle for international services trade

International trade in services is hampered by non-tariff barriers that originate from national regulations. Not only the level of regulation in home or export country matters, but also the inter-country differences in regulation for service markets. Regulatory measures tend to affect fixed costs rather than variable costs. The fact that regulations often differ by market, means that the fixed costs of complying with regulations in an export market are in fact sunk market-entry costs. We prove that policy heterogeneity between countries has a negative impact on bilateral service trade. We develop a new index of bilateral policy heterogeneity, and apply it in a gravity model for explaining service trade among EU countries. The empirical results support our theoretical prediction: the degree of regulatory heterogeneity is inversely related to the level of bilateral service trade. Simulations for the EU show that if countries make more use of mutual recognition, bilateral trade in commercial services among EU countries could increase by 30% to 60%.

Uncertainty and the export decisions of Dutch firms

This paper analyses the export market entry decisions of Dutch firms and their subsequent growth or market exit. Exporters, particularly when entering new markets, have to learn about market conditions and to search for new trade relations under uncertainty. In that sense the paper also investigates the role of economic diplomacy and knowledge spillovers from colleague-exporters. We combine detailed international trade data by firm and destination between 2002 and 2008 with firm data and export market haracteristics in order to disentangle the firm and country determinants of successful and less successful export behaviour. First, we find that about 5% of all Dutch exporters have just started in their first market and a similar share of exporters ceases all exports. Still, the starting exporters increase their exports very fast. In each market their export growth in their third year as exporter is about twice as high as for established exporters. Many starters also increase their exports by expanding their number of destinations, but they will retreat swiftly if they are not successful. For all exporters we find that more productive and larger firms are more inclined to enter (additional) export markets, and that larger firms are less likely to leave a market. Market characteristics are important as well. Distance and import tariffs reduce the probability to enter the market and increase the probability to exit. Not only distance to the home country matters, but also the distance to export markets already accessed. Firms seem to follow a stepping stone approach for reaching markets further away (physically and culturally). They first enter more nearby markets before moving to more distant markets. Finally, we find that the presence of support offices abroad and trade missions in destination countries, particularly middle income countries, stimulate the entry of new exporters and the growth of export volume. Knowledge spillovers from exporters with the same destinations have also positive effects on market entry.strategic export decisions, sequential export market entry and exit, export growth, economic

Sectoral TFP developments in the OECD

This note describes the sectoral total factor productivity (TFP) developments in the OECD between 1970-1990. Based on the ISDB data of the OECD, we confirm the stylised fact that TFP growth is relatively high in agriculture and relatively low in services. Within manufacturing, the TFP growth in chemicals and in capital goods is high whereas it is low in food processing, paper and publishing and metals. The TFP growth in services sectors like construction, financial services and other (government) services seems to be zero or even negative, while it is relatively high in transport and communication. These sectoral pictures are not universal. Differences between countries are rather large. Also, the TFP growth per year appears to be non constant over time. We use the results from this study in our dynamic CGE model WorldScan to model differences in productivity growth between the sectors. In particular, we employ this mechanism in the European long term scenarios.

The contribution of trade policy to the openness of the Dutch economy

The last four decades, Dutch exports and imports grew annually about 7.5%, while re-exports rocketed in the last two decades. Using a gravity approach this paper finds that the increase in trade is largely caused by income developments. Trade policy, consisting of reductions in import tariffs and other trade barriers and the creation of the EU internal market, also has a significant impact on trade growth, although much smaller. Without any liberalisation of trade policy since 1970 the ratio of trade (excluding re-exports) to GDP would have been about 8%- points lower. By estimating the trade enhancing-effect of trade policy on GDP we conclude that trade policy has contributed 6% to 8% to the growth of national income in Netherlands since the 1970s. Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) experienced a massive but erratic growth, mostly in the last two decades. Income developments could explain half of that growth; deregulations of national capital markets explain only a small part of FDI growth.

Liberalisation of the European services market and its impact on Switzerland

The European Commission's 2004 proposals for a Services Directive consists of measures to reduce or eliminate the obstacles of cross-border trade of services by introducing the 'country of origin' principle. It implies that regulation of the country of origin is relevant, and that the country of destination has no right to impose new regulation. Our results indicate that the introduction of the 2004 EU services directive in Switzerland would very much intensify the economic relations between the service industries of Switzerland and the European Union. We have investigated the direct effects of mutual liberalisation of services markets. These are positive, both for Switzerland and the EU. Swiss exports of commercial services to the EU could increase by 40 to 84 per cent, while Swiss foreign direct investment stocks in EU services industries could increase by 20 to 41 per cent. EU services exports to Switzerland may rise by 41 to 85 per cent, while EU direct investment stocks in Swiss service markets could rise by 29 to 55 per cent. This report estimates the quantitative economic implications of a possible decision by the Swiss government to fully adopt the European Commission proposals for a services directive.

The Role of Conduit Countries and Tax Havens in Corporate Tax Avoidance

Traditional tax havens and conduit countries have different economic and tax characteristics. This paper shows that conduit countries are larger economies, have higher statutory and effective tax rates, have more bilateral treaties and are more transparent. Because of these characteristics, other countries apply lower withholding taxes on income flows to conduit countries compared to tax havens and do not apply CFC-rules on profit income generated in conduit countries. I assess quantitatively the role of tax havens and conduit countries in international corporate tax avoidance taking account of the literature on corporate tax revenue losses, treaty shopping and phantom investment. I allocate the global tax revenues losses due to profit shifting and treaty shopping to individual countries, using GDP, tax rates, FDI positions and FDI income. Traditional tax havens are only responsible for a small part of corporate tax avoidance. Conduit countries are involved in a much larger share, in particular on treaty shopping. A large share of the profit shifting losses is also due to different tax arrangements between other developed countries