The EPICTER score: a bedside and easy tool to predict mortality at 6 months in acute heart failure

Aims: Estimating the prognosis in heart failure (HF) is important to decide when to refer to palliative care (PC). Our objective was to develop a tool to identify the probability of death within 6 months in patients admitted with acute HF. Methods and results: A total of 2848 patients admitted with HF in 74 Spanish hospitals were prospectively included and followed for 6 months. Each factor independently associated with death in the derivation cohort (60% of the sample) was assigned a prognostic weight, and a risk score was calculated. The accuracy of the score was verified in the validation cohort. The characteristics of the population were as follows: advanced age (mean 78 years), equal representation of men and women, significant comorbidity, and predominance of HF with preserved ejection fraction. During follow-up, 753 patients (26%) died. Seven independent predictors of mortality were identified: age, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cognitive impairment, New York Heart Association class III-IV, chronic kidney disease, estimated survival of the patient less than 6 months, and acceptance of a palliative approach by the family or the patient. The area under the ROC curve for 6 month death was 0.74 for the derivation and 0.68 for the validation cohort. The model showed good calibration (Hosmer and Lemeshow test, P value 0.11). The 6 month death rates in the score groups ranged from 6% (low risk) to 54% (very high risk). Conclusions: The EPICTER score, developed from a prospective and unselected cohort, is a bedside and easy-to-use tool that could help to identify high-risk patients requiring PC

Estimating the Prevalence of Cardiac Amyloidosis in Old Patients with Heart Failure—Barriers and Opportunities for Improvement: The PREVAMIC Study

Background: Cardiac amyloidosis (CA) could be a common cause of heart failure (HF). The objective of the study was to estimate the prevalence of CA in patients with HF. Methods: Observational, prospective, and multicenter study involving 30 Spanish hospitals. A total of 453 patients >= 65 years with HF and an interventricular septum or posterior wall thickness > 12 mm were included. All patients underwent a Tc-99m-DPD/PYP/HMDP scintigraphy and monoclonal bands were studied, following the current criteria for non-invasive diagnosis. In inconclusive cases, biopsies were performed. Results: The vast majority of CA were diagnosed non-invasively. The prevalence was 20.1%. Most of the CA were transthyretin (ATTR-CM, 84.6%), with a minority of cardiac light-chain amyloidosis (AL-CM, 2.2%). The remaining (13.2%) was untyped. The prevalence was significantly higher in men (60.1% vs 39.9%, p = 0.019). Of the patients with CA, 26.5% had a left ventricular ejection fraction less than 50%. Conclusions: CA was the cause of HF in one out of five patients and should be screened in the elderly with HF and myocardial thickening, regardless of sex and LVEF. Few transthyretin-gene-sequencing studies were performed in older patients. In many patients, it was not possible to determine the amyloid subtype