Denoised Least Squares Forecasting of GDP Changes Using Indexes of Consumer and Business Sentiment

Indexes of consumer and business sentiment are frequently characterized by measurement errors and short-term cyclical fluctuations that can distort their predictive accuracy for GDP changes. While measurement errors arise due to the survey sampling procedures that characterize these surveys, short-term cyclical fluctuations are generally linked with various exogenous and irregular factors that are not necessarily related to the economy. This paper shows, using data on the US economy, that applying wavelet denoising on indexes of consumer and business sentiment in the context of the linear regression model can overcome these limitations and can provide: (a) efficient coefficient estimates in models that explain consumer sentiment index variation; and (b) consistent coefficient estimates and predictions in models for GDP changes when using consumer and business sentiment indexes as predictors.Consumer sentiment index, denoised least squares, index of homebuilders’sentiment, index of manufacturing activity, measurement errors.

Hybrid Heart Failure Treatment

A case of refractory heart failure (HF) is presented in a 64-year-old gentleman with ischemic cardiomyopathy and severe left ventricular dysfunction, who availed himself of currently available hybrid HF treatment, like optimal medical treatment, electrical and interventional therapies comprising drugs, an implantable cardiac resynchronization therapy defibrillator (CRT-D) effected via alternate route (middle cardiac vein) for left ventricular lead placement combined with percutaneous mitral valve therapy (MitraClip) that prolonged his life to ~10 years. Rhythmos 2021; 16(1):99-101

Use of Sodium–Glucose Cotransporter 2 (SGLT-2) Inhibitors Beyond Diabetes: On the Verge of a Paradigm Shift?

The sodium–glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors have proven effective in glycemia control in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) by increasing urinary glucose excretion. However, the beneficial effects of SGLT2 inhibition extend beyond glycemic control, with new studies demonstrating beneficial effects that lead to improved cardiovascular (CV) (cardioprotection) and renal outcomes (renoprotection) in patients with T2D. Pivotal CV outcomes trials have demonstrated a 27-35% reduction in heart failure (HF) hospitalizations in patients with T2D. Importantly, a variety of pleiotropic effects of these new agents have been identified that include, but are not limited to, anti-atherosclerotic, anti-inflammatory, and anti-oxidant effects, decreased vascular stiffness and improved endothelial function, weight loss, reduction in sympathetic activity and in cardiac arrhythmogenesis. Ongoing studies are investigating these actions in patients with and without diabetes. Such results, if positive, may lead to a paradigm shift in the management of CV, renal and even other diseases beyond diabetes. Rhythmos 2020;15(1):67-71

Cold gas and star formation in a merging galaxy sequence

We explore the evolution of the cold gas and star-formation activity during galaxy interactions, using a merging galaxy sequence comprising both pre- and post-mergers. Data for this study come from the literature but supplemented by new radio observations presented here. Firstly, we confirm that the star-formation efficiency (SFE) increases close to nuclear coalescence. At post-merger stages there is evidence that the SFE declines to values typical of ellipticals. This trend can be attributed to M(H_2) depletion due to interaction induced star-formation. However, there is significant scatter, likely to arise from differences in the interaction details of individual systems. Secondly, we find that the central molecular hydrogen surface density, increases close to the final stages of the merging of the two nuclei. Such a trend is also predicted by numerical simulations. Furthermore, there is evidence for a decreasing fraction of cold gas mass from early interacting systems to merger remnants, attributed to gas conversion into other forms. The evolution of the total-radio to blue-band luminosity ratio, reflecting the disk+nucleus star-formation activity, is also investigated. Although this ratio is on average higher than that of isolated spirals, we find a marginal increase along the merging sequence, attributed to the relative insensitivity of disk star-formation to interactions. However, a similar result is also obtained for the nuclear radio emission, although galaxy interactions are believed to significantly affect the activity in the central galaxy regions. Finally, we find that the FIR--radio flux ratio distribution of interacting galaxies is consistent with star-formation being the main energising source.Comment: 18 pages, 17 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

The earliest mention of a black bag.

A black bag, needed especially for home visits, has been used since the time of Hippocrates who, in his treatise "On good manners", gave the first detailed description of a medical bag with guidelines for the required equipment and structure. Ancient Egyptian and Palestinian references also date back at least two millenniums

Keck Imaging of the Globular Cluster Systems in the Early--type Galaxies NGC 1052 and NGC 7332

The presence of two globular cluster subpopulations in early-type galaxies is now the norm rather than the exception. Here we present two more examples for which the host galaxy appears to have undergone a recent merger. Using multi-colour Keck imaging of NGC 1052 and NGC 7332 we find evidence for a bimodal globular cluster colour distribution in both galaxies, with roughly equal numbers of blue and red globular clusters. The blue ones have similar colours to those in the Milky Way halo and are thus probably very old and metal-poor. If the red GC subpopulations are at least solar metallicity, then stellar population models indicate young ages. We discuss the origin of globular clusters within the framework of formation models. We conclude that recent merger events in these two galaxies have had little effect on their overall GC systems. We also derive globular cluster density profiles, global specific frequencies and in the case of NGC 1052, radial colour gradients and azimuthal distribution. In general these globular cluster properties are normal for early-type galaxies.Comment: 11 pages, Latex, 15 figures, 2 tables, accepted by MNRA

Predicting Rainfall in the Context of Rainfall Derivatives Using Genetic Programming

Rainfall is one of the most challenging variables to predict, as it exhibits very unique characteristics that do not exist in other time series data. Moreover, rainfall is a major component and is essential for applications that surround water resource planning. In particular, this paper is interested in the prediction of rainfall for rainfall derivatives. Currently in the rainfall derivatives literature, the process of predicting rainfall is dominated by statistical models, namely using a Markov-chain extended with rainfall prediction (MCRP). In this paper we outline a new methodology to be carried out by predicting rainfall with Genetic Programming (GP). This is the first time in the literature that GP is used within the context of rainfall derivatives. We have created a new tailored GP to this problem domain and we compare the performance of the GP and MCRP on 21 different data sets of cities across Europe and report the results. The goal is to see whether GP can outperform MCRP, which acts as a benchmark. Results indicate that in general GP significantly outperforms MCRP, which is the dominant approach in the literature