With the diagnosis confirmed pollsters can start working on their own solutions to the 2015 polling error

The preliminary findings of the inquiry into 2015 pre-election polls were presented yesterday at the Royal Statistical Society. As well as pinpointing unrepresentative samples as the most viable explanation, the panel took the time to emphasise the factors that did not contribute to the error. Here, Anthony Wells offers an overview of the key points made in the meeting

Contributions To The Estimation Of The Logit, Log Odds And Common Odds Ratio

Asymptotic series expansions for the bias and mean square error of the logit estimator are developed. In addition, an estimator of the bias and asymptotic series for the expectation of this estimator and the estimator of the mean square error are derived. These formulations have been expressed in such a way that general coefficients can be calculated and then implemented for any choice of the parameters involved in the logit estimation problem. The formulas developed are applied, providing similar asymptotic series, for the estimation of the log odds ratio.;A general method for the linear combination of estimators is proposed. This procedure is applied to combine log odds ratios and new estimators are developed for the estimation of a common odds ratio. The small sample properties of these estimators and some widely used estimators are examined and compared in a Monte Carlo simulation. Since no one estimator is uniformly the best, a scheme for applying the most appropriate estimator in a given situation is proposed. Illustrations of settings in which this approach is feasible are examined

A socio-technical transitions perspective for assessing future sustainability following the COVID-19 Pandemic

This policy brief argues that the COVID-19 pandemic exposes the fractures in the contemporary global socio-technical order and offers the prospects of several different alternative futures. The policy brief explores the pandemic through the lens of the multi-level perspective on socio-technical transitions. The pandemic is framed as a meta-transition event at the landscape level of unprecedented scale, pace, and pervasiveness such that it permeates all socio-technical regimes simultaneously. The prospects for the future are then defined on a matrix that compares the strength of civil society and that of economic structures. The result is four distinct scenarios that are linked to contemporary discourses on socio-economic futures: business as usual; managed transition; chaotic transition; and managed degrowth. The scenarios are presented as a starting point for policy discussion and the engagement of societal actors to define social and economic possibilities for the future, and the implications that the different futures would have for ecological burdens. It is concluded that the COVID 19 pandemic can act as a catalytic event in which the legitimacy and efficacy of existing economic and political structures will be challenged and reshaped, and hence is an opportunity to redefine the ecological burdens our activities create

German public opinion and Hitler's policies, 1933-1939.

This thesis is an analysis of the nature and mechanics of public opinion in Nazi peacetime society. Its aim has been to break down the society of the Third Reich into its essential components, and through an investigation of its institutions, and more particularly of the individuals who composed them, to gain an insight into the action and interaction of the forces that created public opinion. Special attention has been paid to the German Army, the Church and the Diplomatic Service. Through representative cases of these three bodies an attempt has been made to create an informed picture of three important sections of the public mind. Great stress has been laid on the contingency between Nazi controls, especially Hitler's propaganda techniques, and opinion-forming. The basic questions of how all sections of German society reacted to Hitler's policies, why, and with what consequences are answered. A detailed interpretation has been made of the relationship between public opinion in the period and the mainstream of history in the Nazi era , and also to set this particular facet of Nazi history against the whole background of modern German history. In that interpretation several fundamental philosophical questions of historical interpretation have been raised and a standpoint established. The work is divided into nine main parts - beginning with a definition of the problem involved, including interpretive ones, followed by a prelude, dealing with the relevant aspects of the period leading up to the Nazi takeover in 1933. Then come five central chapters on the period 1933-1939, organised chronologically; the epilogue makes a final analysis of public opinion, and the work is concluded with an index of the references used

Leidenfrost heat engine: Sustained rotation of levitating rotors on turbine-inspired substrates

The prospect of thermal energy harvesting in extreme environments, such as in space or at microscales, offers unique opportunities and challenges for the development of alternate energy conversion technologies. At microscales mechanical friction presents a challenge in the form of energy losses and wear, while presence of high temperature differences and locally available resources inspire the development of new types of heat engines for space and planetary exploration. Recently, levitation using thin-film boiling, via the Leidenfrost effect, has been explored to convert thermal energy to mechanical motion, establishing the basis for novel reduced-friction heat engines. In the Leidenfrost effect, instantaneous thin-film boiling occurs between a droplet and a heated surface, thereby levitating the droplet on its own vapor. This droplet state provides virtually frictionless motion and self-propulsion, whose direction can be designed into the system by asymmetrically texturing the substrate. However, sustaining such thermal to mechanical energy conversion is challenging because the Leidenfrost transition temperature for water on a smooth metal surface is 220°C and, despite the low thermal conductivity of the vapor layer, the droplet continuously evaporates. Further challenges include effective transfer of thermal energy into rotational, rather than linear motion, and driving solid components and not simply droplets. Here we present a Leidenfrost rotor, where a solid component is coupled to a rotating liquid volume using surface tension and levitated in continuous operation over a turbine-inspired substrate. We address two key challenges: we show how the liquid can be replenished to achieve the continuous operation of the device; and we show how a superhydrophobic coating to the substrate can broaden the temperature range of operation and the stability of the rotor. Because the liquid acts as a working substance by extracting heat from the substrate to produce useful work in the form of rotation of the coupled solid component, our results demonstrate that a Leidenfrost engine operating in a closed thermodynamic cycle is possible