The risks of multiple breadbasket failures in the 21st century: a science research agenda

Thomson ReutersThis report stems from an international, interdisciplinary workshop organized by Knowledge Systems for Sustainability and hosted by the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future, with support from Thomson Reuters, in November 2014.Written by an interdisciplinary team of leading researchers, this report describes a science research agenda toward improved probabilistic modeling and prediction of multiple breadbasket failures and the potential consequences for global food systems. The authors highlight gaps in the existing empirical foundation and analytical capabilities and offer general approaches to address these gaps. They also suggest the need to fuse diverse data sources, recent observations, and new suites of dynamic models capable of connecting agricultural outcomes to elements of the global food system. The goal of these efforts is to provide better information concerning potential systemic risks to breadbaskets in various regions of the world to inform policies and decisions that have the potential for global impacts

Implications of Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 Methane Emissions to Stabilize Radiative Forcing

Increases in the abundance of methane (CH4) in the Earth’s atmosphere are responsible for significant radiative forcing of climate change (Forster et al., 2007; Wuebbles and Hayhoe, 2002). Since 1750, a 2.5 fold increase in atmospheric CH4 contributed 0.5 W/m2 to direct radiative forcing and an additional 0.2 W/m2 indirectly through changes in atmospheric chemistry. Next to water and carbon dioxide (CO2), methane is the most abundant greenhouse gas in the troposphere. Additionally, CH4 is significantly more effective as a greenhouse gas on a per molecule basis than is CO2, and increasing atmospheric CH4 has been second only to CO2 in radiative forcing (Forster et al., 2007). The chemical reactivity of CH4 is important to both tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry. Along with carbon monoxide, methane helps control the amount of the hydroxyl radical (OH) in the troposphere where oxidation of CH4 by OH leads to the formation of formaldehyde, carbon monoxide, and ozone

Vulnerable yet relevant: the two dimensions of climate-related financial disclosure

Market-based solutions to climate change are widely advocated by financial actors and policy makers in order to foster a smooth transition to a low-carbon economy. A first important limiting factor to this approach is widely recognized to be the imperfect information on investors' portfolios' exposure to climate-related risks. While better disclosure of climaterelevant information is often recommended as a remedy, the current lack of concise and comparable measures of portfolios' exposure to climate risk fails to provide major investors with the full incentives to reallocate their portfolios. A second limiting factor arises from the fact that in the context of the low-carbon transition, it is not clear how to measure the market share of participants because many economic sectors produce greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions or induce them along the supply chain. The lack of common and concise measures of the relevant market share hampers the ability of policy makers to ensure fair competition policies and the ability of major investors to assess the effects of their own and their competitors' portfolio reallocation. To address these two gaps, we propose two novel and complementary indices: (i) the "GHG exposure," capturing the exposure of single investors' portfolios to climate transition risks, and (ii) "GHG holding," capturing the market share of each financial actor weighted by its contribution to GHG emissions. We illustrate the use of the indices on a dataset of portfolios of equity holdings and loans in the Euro-Area, and we discuss the policy implications for the low-carbon transition

National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for the United States

The first U.S. National Assessment of the PotentialConsequences of Climate Variability and Change for theUnited States is being conducted under the auspices of theU.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). TheUSGCRP was established through the Global ChangeResearch Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606) and mandatedthrough the statute with the responsibility to undertakeperiodic scientific assessments of the potentialconsequences of global change for the United States. Thegoal of the National Assessment is to analyze andevaluate what is known about the potential consequencesof climate variability and change for the nation in thecontext of other pressures on the public, the environment,and the nation\u27s resources. The conduct of the nationalassessment process will involve a broad spectrum ofstakeholders from state, local, tribal, and Federalgovernments; business; labor; academia; non-profitorganizations; and the general public. The assessmentwill link research by scientists to specific needs of thestakeholders, and will provide planners, managers,organizations, and the public with the information neededto increase resilience to climate variability and cope withclimate change. The national assessment will becomprised of three components: (1) National synthesis,(2) Sectoral analyses (agriculture, forestry, waterresources, human health, and the coastal zone), and(3) Regional analyses. To facilitate comparison,integration, and synthesis of each of the assessmentcomponents, all regional, sectoral, and synthesis analyseswill use a common set of scenarios for climate change and changes in socio-economic conditions. Specific responsibilities have been defined for oversight of the components of the national assessment and forcoordination activities. A National Assessment SynthesisTeam (NAST) will provide overall intellectual oversightof the national assessment process and has responsibilityfor the development of the Synthesis Report. A NationalAssessment Working Group under the auspices of theUSGCRP has lead responsibility for organizing andsponsoring the sectoral analyses and oversight andcoordination responsibilities for regional analyses. ANational Assessment Coordination Office has beenestablished to facilitate coordination of the entire nationalassessment process. The National Assessment SynthesisReport is targeted for completion by January 1, 2000, andis intended to satisfy the mandate for an assessmentdefined in P.L. 101-606 and serve as part of the U.S.contribution to the IPCC Third Assessment Report

National Climate Assessment Indicators: Background, Development, and Examples

This paper establishes a rationale for developing a system of indicators for an ongoing national climate assessment process. It lays out a framework for a set of climate-related indicators that have an end-to-end character, e.g. they will provide information on greenhouse gases, variability and change in the climate system, status and trends of important sectors that are known to be sensitive to climate variability, and response strategies. Examples of potential indicators are shown in each category. These are by no means a final set of indicators, because an overall process for selection with participation from important stakeholders has not yet been undertaken. But even this initial set of possibilities reveals both where there is a substantial amount of well-documented information, and where there are important gaps that must be filled by subsequent research

Research priorities in land use and land-cover change for the Earth system and integrated assessment modelling

Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright.This special issue has highlighted recent and innovative methods and results that integrate observations and modelling analyses of regional to global aspect of biophysical and biogeochemical interactions of land-cover change with the climate system. Both the Earth System and the Integrated Assessment modeling communities recognize the importance of an accurate representation of land use and land-cover change to understand and quantify the interactions and feedbacks with the climate and socio-economic systems, respectively. To date, cooperation between these communities has been limited. Based on common interests, this work discusses research priorities in representing land use and land-cover change for improved collaboration across modelling, observing and measurement communities. Major research topics in land use and land-cover change are those that help us better understand (1) the interaction of land use and land cover with the climate system (e.g. carbon cycle feedbacks), (2) the provision of goods and ecosystem services by terrestrial (natural and anthropogenic) land-cover types (e.g. food production), (3) land use and management decisions and (4) opportunities and limitations for managing climate change (for both mitigation and adaptation strategies)

Trade in the balance: reconciling trade and climate policy: report of the Working Group on Trade, Investment, and Climate Policy

This repository item contains a report published by the Working Group on Trade, Investment, and Climate Policy at The Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future at Boston University, and the Global Economic Governance Initiative at Boston University.This report outlines the general tensions between the trade and investment regime and climate policy, and outlines a framework toward making trade and investment rules more climate friendly. Members of the working group have contributed short pieces addressing a range of issues related to the intersection of trade and climate policy. The first two are by natural scientists. Anthony Janetos discusses the need to address the effects of international trade on efforts to limit the increase in global annual temperature to no more than 2oC over preindustrial levels. James J. Corbett examines the failure of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) to adequately address the environmental implications of shipping and maritime transport. The next two pieces are by economists who examine economic aspects of the trade-climate linkage. Irene Monasterolo and Marco Raberto discuss the potential impacts of including fossil fuel subsidies reduction under the TTIP. Frank Ackerman explores the economic costs of efforts to promote convergence of regulatory standards between the United States and the European Union under the TTIP. The following two contributions are by legal scholars. Brooke Güven and Lise Johnson explore the potential for international investment treaties to redirect investment flows to support climate change mitigation and adaptation, particularly with regard to China and India. Matt Porterfield provides an overview of the ways in which both existing and proposed trade and investment agreements could have either “climate positive” or “climate negative” effects on mitigation policies. The final article is by Tao Hu, a former WTO trade and environment expert advisor for China and currently at the World Wildlife Fund, arguing that the definition of environmental goods and services’ under the WTO negotiations needs to be expanded to better incorporate climate change

Trade in the balance: reconciling trade and climate policy: report of the Working Group on Trade, Investment, and Climate Policy

This repository item contains a report published by the Working Group on Trade, Investment, and Climate Policy at The Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future at Boston University, and the Global Economic Governance Initiative at Boston University.This report outlines the general tensions between the trade and investment regime and climate policy, and outlines a framework toward making trade and investment rules more climate friendly. Members of the working group have contributed short pieces addressing a range of issues related to the intersection of trade and climate policy. The first two are by natural scientists. Anthony Janetos discusses the need to address the effects of international trade on efforts to limit the increase in global annual temperature to no more than 2oC over preindustrial levels. James J. Corbett examines the failure of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) to adequately address the environmental implications of shipping and maritime transport. The next two pieces are by economists who examine economic aspects of the trade-climate linkage. Irene Monasterolo and Marco Raberto discuss the potential impacts of including fossil fuel subsidies reduction under the TTIP. Frank Ackerman explores the economic costs of efforts to promote convergence of regulatory standards between the United States and the European Union under the TTIP. The following two contributions are by legal scholars. Brooke Güven and Lise Johnson explore the potential for international investment treaties to redirect investment flows to support climate change mitigation and adaptation, particularly with regard to China and India. Matt Porterfield provides an overview of the ways in which both existing and proposed trade and investment agreements could have either “climate positive” or “climate negative” effects on mitigation policies. The final article is by Tao Hu, a former WTO trade and environment expert advisor for China and currently at the World Wildlife Fund, arguing that the definition of environmental goods and services’ under the WTO negotiations needs to be expanded to better incorporate climate change

Understanding Climatic Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Adaptation in the United States: Building a Capacity for Assessment

Based on the experience of the U.S. National Assessment, we propose a program of research and analysis to advance capability for assessment of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options. We identify specific priorities for scientific research on the responses of ecological and socioeconomic systems to climate and other stresses; for improvement in the climatic inputs to impact assessments; and for further development of assessment methods to improve their practical utility to decision-makers. Finally, we propose a new institutional model for assessment, based principally on regional efforts that integrate observations, research, data, applications, and assessment on climate and linked environmental-change issues. The proposed program will require effective collaboration between scientists, resource managers, and other stakeholders, all of whose expertise is needed to define and prioritize key regional issues, characterize relevant uncertainties, and assess potential responses. While both scientifically and organizationally challenging, such an integrated program holds the best promise of advancing our capacity to manage resources and the economy adaptively under a changing climate

Synthesis and Assessment Product

This document is a part of the Synthesis and Assessment Products described in the U.S. Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan. The report describes how climate affects the design, construction, safety, operations, and maintenance of transportation infrastructure and systems. The prospect of a changing climate raises critical questions regarding how alterations in temperature, precipitation, storm events, and other aspects of the climate could affect the nation's roads, airports, rail, transit systems, pipelines, ports, and waterways. Phase I of this regional assessment of climate change and its potential impacts on transportation systems addresses these questions for the region of the U.S. central Gulf Coast between Galveston, Texas and Mobile, Alabama