What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic

We assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU15 over the period 1970-2006 using stationarity and cointegration analysis. Specifically, we use panel unit root tests of the first and second generation allowing in some cases for structural breaks. We also apply modern panel cointegration techniques developed by Pedroni (1999, 2004), generalized by Banerjee and Carrion-i-Silvestre (2006) and Westerlund and Edgerton (2007), to a structural long-run equation between general government expenditures and revenues. While estimations point to fiscal sustainability being an issue in some countries, fiscal policy was sustainable both for the EU15 panel set, and within sub-periods (1970-1991 and 1992-2006)http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/64361/1/wp893.pd

The Impact of FDI, Cross Border Mergers and Acquisitions and Greenfield Investments on Economic Growth

This paper investigates whether aggregate foreign direct investment (FDI), cross border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and greenfield investments affects economic growth based on a panel data of 53 countries over the period 1996-2006. Both causality tests and single growth equations are applied to examine this relationship. The evidence suggests that there is bidirectional causality between FDI, M&A and growth. We can also conclude that economic growth Granger causes greenfields, but the reverse is not true. The estimation of the growth equation leads us to conclude that FDI through greenfield investments exerts a positive impact on economic growth in both developed and developing countries. Oppositely, M&A has a negative effect on the economic growth of developing countries, but insignificant on developed countries.Foreign Direct Investment, Cross Border Mergers and Acquisitions, Greenfield Investments, Economic Growth

Subjective Versus Objective Economic Measures, A fuzzy logic exercise

It is rather evident that there is much more (statistical) information about objective aggregates, such as inflation, output or unemployment than that concerning subjective aggregates, such as well-being, satisfaction, confidence or even expectations. Due to its characteristics, fuzzy logic can and should indeed be used to understand how some of those subjective measures can be approximated by objective ones. This task is accomplished in the paper by the use of Portuguese data on consumer confidence - the subjective economic measure - and on the unemployment rate - the objective economic measure -. The results clearly indicate that to be a worthwhile exercise as the clear importance of unemployment on confidence is only revealed by the fuzzy logic approximation

Groundwater and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Groundwater is an important part of the water cycle, but this don’t reflects at all in the indicators for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations (UN). Facing some logistical issues in what relates to data gathering and data treatment, the indicators, used to monitor objectives defined by UN for all the 17 SDGs, must be, for the Inter-Agency and Expert Group on Sustainable Development Goal Indicators (IAEG-SDGs), reasonable maintained under 100 to be treatable and useful for all the UN member states. As always, groundwater, as the major part of the available freshwater resources on the world, but also as the less understood part of the same cycle, has been somehow forgotten. Our aim must be to turn groundwater a priority in the international decisions, documents and governance. An example is the SDGs, on its goal 6, Clean Water and Sanitation, dedicated to the topic “Ensure access to water and sanitation for all”, the following targets related with clean water are appointed: by 2030 to achieve universal and equitable access to safe and affordable drinking water for all, to improve water quality, to substantially increase water-use efficiency across all sectors and ensure sustainable withdrawals and supply of freshwater to address water scarcity, to implement integrated water resources management at all levels, including through transboundary cooperation, to expand international cooperation and capacity-building support to developing countries in water-related activities; by 2020, to protect and restore water-related ecosystems, including aquifers. There is also an indication to support and strengthen the participation of local communities in improving water and sanitation management. To accomplish these targets in what respects groundwater, more efforts must be done to indicate to the countries the kind of data that must be collected and analysed in order to inform better the state of our groundwater resources

Reconstruction of the Past Climate in Southern Portugal from Geothermal Data

The study of the past climate in the territory of mainland Portugal using geothermal data started in 1996. From an initial set of about 90 temperature logs obtained Portugal, eight were chosen as good for estimating ground surface temperature (GST) in the past. The main results from the analysis of the collected geothermal data show, on average, that there has been an increase of the atmosphere mean surface temperature of about 1 K since the middle of the nineteenth century. This conclusion agrees with the results obtained from the analysis of air temperature records that were obtained in the Lisbon weather station since 1856. With the objective of improving the reconstruction of GST history in Portugal one of the eight wells (the TGQC-1 well) was cased and is being used for repeated temperature logging since 1997. The results of the temperature measurements repetition indicate that the warming trend continues to the present day, accelerating in the last 10 to 15 years. Since 2005 a geothermal climate change observatory was installed in the TGQC-1 well to study the air-ground coupling