The Determinants of International Reserves in the Emerging Countries: a Non-Linear Approach

In this paper we adopt a non linear approach to examine the dynamics of the international reserves holdings by the emerging economies. To do so, we estimate the demand for international reserves with a panel smooth transition model, that loosens two restricting hypotheses, homogeneity and time-stability. We find evidence for the presence of a non linear behavior in the demand for international reserves, a result that is new to the literature. The coefficients are found to change smoothly, as a function of two threshold variables- out of seven candidates tested in total. Our specification accounts for the acceleration of foreign exchange reserves accumulation that the linear specifications fail to explain.International Reserves, Precautionary Demand, Mercantilist, Global Imbalances, Panel Smooth Threshold Regression Models.

Smooth transition in China: New evidence in the cointegrating money demand relationship

Using linearity tests proposed by Choi and Saikkonen (2004), this paper finds evidence of a non-linear cointegrating money demand relationship in China during the 1987-2008 period and identifies potential explanations for this non-linearity.China Money Demand, Non-linearity, Cointegrating STR.

Une question à mille milliards de dollars: l’actuel régime de change chinois est-il soutenable ?

La récente augmentation des réserves de change de la Chine, dont le montant s’élevait à 1000 milliards de dollars en octobre 2006, appelle à reconsidérer l’analyse concernant son impact potentiel sur l’économie nationale. Depuis 2003, les spéculations sur une appréciation future du Renminbi ont accru l’offre de monnaie en Chine. L’établissement de certains mécanismes de contrôle sur les flux de capitaux a réduit les capitaux à court terme en 2005 et 2006  mais cela a été compensé par la récente accélération des excédents commerciaux. Au total, une liquidité abondante pourrait être responsable de distorsions analysées par cet article

The Determinants of International Reserves in the Emerging Countries: a Non-Linear Approach

In this paper we adopt a non linear approach to examine the dynamics of the international reserves holdings by the emerging economies. To do so, we estimate the demand for international reserves with a panel smooth transition model, that loosens two restricting hypotheses, homogeneity and time-stability. We find evidence for the presence of a non linear behavior in the demand for international reserves, a result that is new to the literature. The coefficients are found to change smoothly, as a function of two threshold variables- out of seven candidates tested in total. Our specification accounts for the acceleration of foreign exchange reserves accumulation that the linear specifications fail to explain

The Determinants of International Reserves in the Emerging Countries: a Non-Linear Approach

In this paper we adopt a non linear approach to examine the dynamics of the international reserves holdings by the emerging economies. To do so, we estimate the demand for international reserves with a panel smooth transition model, that loosens two restricting hypotheses, homogeneity and time-stability. We find evidence for the presence of a non linear behavior in the demand for international reserves, a result that is new to the literature. The coefficients are found to change smoothly, as a function of two threshold variables- out of seven candidates tested in total. Our specification accounts for the acceleration of foreign exchange reserves accumulation that the linear specifications fail to explain

Commodity and Equity Markets: Some Stylized Facts from a Copula Approach.

In this paper, we propose to identify the dependence structure existing between the returns of equity and commodity futures and its evolution through the past 20 years. The key point is that we do not do not impose the dependence structure but let the data select it. To do so, we model the dependence between commodity (metal, agriculture and energy) and stock markets using a flexible approach that allows us to investigate whether the co-movement is : (i) symmetric and occurring most of the time, (ii) symmetric and occurring mostly during extreme events and (iii) asymmetric and occurring mostly during extreme events. We also allow for this dependence to be time-varying from January 1990 to February 2012. Our analysis uncovers three major stylized facts. First, we find that the dependence between commodity and stock markets is time varying, symmetric and occurs most of the time (as opposed to mostly in extreme events). Second, not allowing for time-varying parameters in the dependence distribution generates a bias toward evidence of tail dependence. Similarly, considering only tail dependence may lead to wrong evidence of asymmetry. Third, a growing comovement between industrial metals and equity markets is identified as early as in 2003, a comovement that spreads to all commodity classes and becomes unambiguously stronger with the global financial crisis after Fall 2008

Rencontres Henri-Jean Martin : faire vivre la documentation régionale

Depuis 8 ans, les rencontres Henri-Jean Martin proposent un lieu de rencontre et d\u27échange pour les bibliothécaires travaillant dans des fonds patrimoniaux de toutes sortes. En quelques mots, voici leurs objectifs : offrir la possibilité de discuter des sujets les plus complexes en échangeant les expériences et en invitant des experts, rencontrer ses collègues, en toute liberté de parole et de débat. En 2014, les échanges portent sur la documentation régionale. La réflexion sur ce sujet riche, vaste et composite prend appui sur quatre pivots : les modalités de constitution spécifiques des fonds locaux ; les enjeux liés à la mémoire locale ; la définition mouvante du local dans les contextes urbains et numériques d’aujourd’hui, et l’enjeu politique de ces fonds quand ils s’inscrivent dans un projet de portée tout à la fois locale et universelle

Les paradis fiscaux, des paradis pas du tout artificiels

Forthcomin

EU economic governance and the climate crisis

Government support for firms and households accounts for a substantial part of national budgets. Traditional support measures for the corporate sector mostly benefit carbon-intensive sectors and dwarf new green support measures. Untargeted, across-the-board income support measures to households are not efficient because they benefit high-income households, which tend to have a larger carbon footprint. Non-standard monetary policy has taken the form of an unprecedented economic stimulus, which has mostly benefited carbon-intensive sectors. The EU must use institutional leverage to change the allocation of fiscal and monetary suppor

Expertise économique et politique publique : examen critique des propositions sur la dette liée à la pandémie: Note de recherche

International audienceCette note analyse les logiques économiques et politiques des propositions concernant le traitement de la dette COVID formulées par différentes expertises, plus ou moins proches du gouvernement. Ces propositions contribuent à reconstruire un récit de la dette tout en s’inscrivant dans une logique politique conservatrice, en évacuant toute alternative budgétaire progressive. Après avoir explicité la façon dont, à travers l’histoire, le dispositif des caisses d’amortissement de la dette a été expérimenté, nous tirons les enseignements suivants : loin de se réduire à une opération cosmétique, les propositions engagent les finances publiques dans une logique disciplinaire au prix d’une possible augmentation du coût de financement de la dette. Cette décision, qui a déjà entraîné la prolongation d’un impôt régressif – la Contribution au Remboursement de la Dette Sociale, (CRDS) au cours de la crise pandémique – met toute la pression sur la baisse des dépenses publiques. Enfin, les propositions seraient de nature à freiner les réformes possibles de la gouvernance économique européenne