Potential and current distributional areas of <i>Ae. albopictus.</i>

<p>Overlap of both indicators (JanT^mean LST> = 0°C and AnnT^mean LST > = 11°C) were plotted for the period 2001–09 and integrated in a final map with 3 categories (see <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0014800#s2" target="_blank">methods</a>). Red spots represent the presence and green spots the absence of <i>Ae. albopictus.</i></p

Differences between the areas with/without <i>Ae. albopictus</i> presence and the four explanatory variables: JanT^mean LST (top left), AnnT^mean LST (top right), human population density (log) (bottom left) and distance to human population centers (bottom right).

<p>Differences between the areas with/without <i>Ae. albopictus</i> presence and the four explanatory variables: JanT^mean LST (top left), AnnT^mean LST (top right), human population density (log) (bottom left) and distance to human population centers (bottom right).</p

Output of the minimal adequate model of the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) with Binomial Distribution on <i>Ae. albopictus</i> presence (deviance: 200.47; Log-likelihood: -100.237).

<p>Output of the minimal adequate model of the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) with Binomial Distribution on <i>Ae. albopictus</i> presence (deviance: 200.47; Log-likelihood: -100.237).</p

Relationship between the JanT^mean LST (left) and the AnnT^mean LST (right) and elevation.

<p>All the pixels with a JanT^mean LST > = 0°C and with an AnnT^mean LST > = 11°C were included and compared with elevation.</p

Forest variables.

<p>Total coppices and high forest surface coverage recorded in TBE-negative provinces (panel A) and TBE-positive provinces (panel B) (see also <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0004336#pone-0004336-g001" target="_blank">Fig. 1</a>).</p

Trends in climatic variables.

<p>Annual total precipitation (top), annual minimum (middle) and maximum (bottom) daily air temperature in the TBE-negative provinces (panels A) and TBE-positive provinces (panels B) in northern Italy from 1950 to 2006 (see also <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0004336#pone-0004336-g001" target="_blank">Fig. 1</a>).</p

Linear regression slopes of the temporal trends for annual climatic variables using the occurrence of human TBE cases as the covariate (see also Fig. 4).

§<p>All, slope for all provinces pooling data; Pos, slope for positive provinces; Neg, slope for negative provinces; Diff.Pos.Neg, difference in slopes between positive and negative provinces.</p>**<p>P≤0.01.</p>***<p>P≤0.001.</p

Position and classification of meteorological stations from which data were obtained for this study.

*<p>see <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0004336#pone-0004336-g001" target="_blank">Fig. 1</a> for abbreviations.</p>**<p>Cfa: warm temperate, warm temperate, hot summeŗ Cfb: warm temperate, warm temperate, warm summer; Csb: warm temperate, summer dry, warm summer; Dfb: snow, fully humid, warm summer (however, the stations are located in the valley); Dfc: snow, fully humid, cool summer; ET: polar, polar tundra (however, the stations are located in the valley, so the classification is closer to Dfc, <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0004336#pone.0004336-Kottek1" target="_blank">[75]</a>).</p

Akaike's Information Criterion (AICc) ranking of <i>a priori</i> models used to estimate dependence of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) human cases on vertebrate host and forest cover parameters.

<p>Df, Degrees of freedom; ΔAICc, difference in AICc between the best and the present model; ω<i>_i</i>, Akaike's weight; Evidence ratios, ratio of Akaike's weights of the best and the present model. The table shows only the first five best-ranked models.</p>§<p>TBE, provinces where human TBE cases occurred; cop.hfor, density ratio of coppice to high stand forest cover; cop.mix, ratio of coppice to mixed forest cover; roe.deer, roe deer; red.deer, red deer density.</p

TBE human cases aggregated per age class.

<p>TBE human cases aggregated per age class.</p