Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants

Background: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes.Methods: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence—defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs—in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.Findings: We used data from 751 studies including 4?372?000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4–7·0) in 1980 to 9·0% (7·2–11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9–7·9) to 7·9% (6·4–9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target.Interpretation: Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol—which is a marker of cardiovascular risk—changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million–4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.</p

A century of trends in adult human height

Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5-22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3-19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8-144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol�which is a marker of cardiovascular risk�changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95 credible interval 3.7 million�4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world. © 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities 1,2 . This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity 3�6 . Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55 of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017�and more than 80 in some low- and middle-income regions�was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing�and in some countries reversal�of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories. © 2019, The Author(s)

The need for obtaining accurate nationwide estimates of diabetes prevalence in India - Rationale for a national study on diabetes

According to the World Diabetes Atlas, India is projected to have around 51 million people with diabetes. However, these data are based on small sporadic studies done in some parts of the country. Even a few multi-centre studies that have been done, have several limitations. Also, marked heterogeneity between States limits the generalizability of results. Other studies done at various time periods also lack uniform methodology, do not take into consideration ethnic differences and have inadequate coverage. Thus, till date there has been no national study on the prevalence of diabetes which are truly representative of India as a whole. Moreover, the data on diabetes complications is even more scarce. Therefore, there is an urgent need for a large well-planned national study, which could provide reliable nationwide data, not only on prevalence of diabetes, but also on pre-diabetes, and the complications of diabetes in India. A study of this nature will have enormous public health impact and help policy makers to take action against diabetes in India

Ethnic variations in diabetes and prediabetes prevalence and the roles of insulin resistance and β-cell function: The CARRS and NHANES studies

Aims: It is unclear how the prevalence of diabetes in Asian Indians in urban India compares to that of race/ethnic groups in the US that may have different underlying susceptibilities. Therefore, we examined ethnic variations in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes, iIFG, iIGT, IFG + IGT, and the associated risk factors in Asian Indians in Chennai, India, and Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics in the United States. Methods: Cross-sectional analyses, using representative samples of 4867 Asian Indians aged 20–74 years from Chennai, India, in the Centre for Cardiometabolic Risk Reduction in South-Asia study (CARRS) (2010–2011) and 6512 US Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics aged 20–74 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (2007–2012). Results: The age-adjusted prevalence of type 2 diabetes was highest in Asian Indians (men: 28.4, 95% CI: 25.9, 31.0; women: 30.6, 95% CI, 27.5, 33.9) and lowest in Caucasians (men: 12.2, 95% CI, 10.3, 14.4, women: 9.5, 95% CI, 7.9, 11.5). Asian Indians had the lowest prediabetes prevalence (men: 19.0, 95% CI, 17.2, 20.8; women: 27.2, 95% CI, 22.8, 32.1) and Caucasians had the highest (men; 46.5, 95% CI, 43.5, 49.6, women: 34.4, 95% CI, 31.7, 37.3). However, there were differences in prediabetes prevalence by gender and prediabetes state. The inclusion of HOMA-β in standardized polytomous logistic regression models resulted in a greater odds of diabetes in Blacks and Hispanics compared to Asian Indians. Conclusions: The high prevalence of diabetes in Asian Indians may be due to innate susceptibilities for β-cell dysfunction in this high risk population

Effect of a collaborative care model on anxiety symptoms among patients with depression and diabetes in India: The INDEPENDENT randomized clinical trial.

Objective: We assessed the impact of a collaborative care intervention on anxiety symptoms among participants in India with comorbid depression, poorly controlled diabetes, and moderate to severe anxiety symptoms. Method: We analyzed data from a randomized controlled trial conducted at four diabetes clinics in India. Participants received either collaborative care or usual care. We included only participants who scored ⩾10 on the Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7 (GAD-7) at baseline. We estimated the effect of the intervention on clinically significant reduction in anxiety symptoms; we considered several potential baseline moderators and mediation by anti-depressant use. Results: One hundred and seventy-two participants scored 10 or above on the GAD-7 at baseline. Collaborative care participants were more likely than control participants to achieve a clinically significant reduction in anxiety symptoms at 6 and 12 months (65.7% vs. 41.4% at 12 months, p = 0.002); these differences were not sustained at 18 or 24 months. There was little evidence of moderation by participant characteristics at baseline, and effects were not mediated by anti-depressant use. Conclusions: Collaborative care for the treatment of depression and type 2 diabetes can lead to clinically significant reductions in anxiety symptoms among patients with anxiety. Effects were notable during the active intervention period but not over the year post-intervention

Effect of a collaborative care model on depressive symptoms and glycated hemoglobin, blood pressure, and serum cholesterol among patients with depression and diabetes in India. The INDEPENDENT randomized clinical trial.

Importance Mental health comorbidities are increasing worldwide and worsen outcomes for people with diabetes, especially when care is fragmented. Objective To assess whether collaborative care vs usual care lowers depressive symptoms and improves cardiometabolic indices among adults with diabetes and depression. Design, Setting, and Participants Parallel, open-label, pragmatic randomized clinical trial conducted at 4 socioeconomically diverse clinics in India that recruited patients with type 2 diabetes; a Patient Health Questionnaire-9 score of at least 10 (range, 0-27); and hemoglobin A(1c)(HbA(1c)) of at least 8%, systolic blood pressure (SBP) of at least 140 mm Hg, or low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol of at least 130 mg/dL. The first patient was enrolled on March 9, 2015, and the last was enrolled on May 31, 2016; the final follow-up visit was July 14, 2018. Interventions Patients randomized to the intervention group (n = 196) received 12 months of self-management support from nonphysician care coordinators, decision support electronic health records facilitating physician treatment adjustments, and specialist case reviews; they were followed up for an additional 12 months without intervention. Patients in the control group (n = 208) received usual care over 24 months. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was the between-group difference in the percentage of patients at 24 months who had at least a 50% reduction in Symptom Checklist Depression Scale (SCL-20) scores (range, 0-4; higher scores indicate worse symptoms) and a reduction of at least 0.5 percentage points in HbA(1c), 5 mm Hg in SBP, or 10 mg/dL in LDL cholesterol. Prespecified secondary outcomes were percentage of patients at 12 and 24 months who met treatment targets (HbA(1c)&lt;7.0%, SBP &lt;130 mm Hg, LDL cholesterol &lt;100 mg/dL [&lt;70 mg/dL if prior cardiovascular disease]) or had improvements in individual outcomes (&gt;= 50% reduction in SCL-20 score, &gt;= 0.5-percentage point reduction in HbA(1c), &gt;= 5-mm Hg reduction in SBP, &gt;= 10-mg/dL reduction in LDL cholesterol); percentage of patients who met all HbA(1c), SBP, and LDL cholesterol targets; and mean reductions in SCL-20 score, Patient Health Questionnaire-9 score, HbA(1c), SBP, and LDL cholesterol. Results Among 404 patients randomized (mean [SD] age, 53 [8.6] years; 165 [40.8%] men), 378 (93.5%) completed the trial. A significantly greater percentage of patients in the intervention group vs the usual care group met the primary outcome (71.6% vs 57.4%; risk difference, 16.9% [95% CI, 8.5%-25.2%]). Of 16 prespecified secondary outcomes, there were no statistically significant between-group differences in improvements in 10 outcomes at 12 months and in 13 outcomes at 24 months. Serious adverse events in the intervention and usual care groups included cardiovascular events or hospitalizations (4 [2.0%] vs 7 [3.4%]), stroke (0 vs 3 [1.4%]), death (2 [1.0%] vs 7 [3.4%]), and severe hypoglycemia (8 [4.1%] vs 0). Conclusions and Relevance Among patients with diabetes and depression in India, a 12-month collaborative care intervention, compared with usual care, resulted in statistically significant improvements in a composite measure of depressive symptoms and cardiometabolic indices at 24 months. Further research is needed to understand the generalizability of the findings to other low- and middle-income health care settings.This randomized clinical trial compares the effect of a collaborative care model that integrates management of depression and enhanced diabetes care on depressive symptoms and HbA(1c), SBP, and LDL cholesterol measures among individuals with depression and diabetes in India.Question Among patients with diabetes and depression in India, does a 12-month collaborative care intervention that includes nonphysician care coordinators, decision support functions in electronic health records, and specialist case reviews improve depressive symptoms and measures of cardiometabolic health more than usual care at 24 months? Findings In this randomized clinical trial that included 404 patients at urban clinics in India with poorly controlled diabetes and depression, patients in the collaborative care intervention group, compared with the usual care group, were significantly more likely to achieve the composite outcome of at least a 50% reduction in the 20-item Symptom Checklist Depression Scale score and at least 1 of the following: reduction of at least 0.5 percentage points in hemoglobin A(1c), reduction of at least 5 mm Hg in systolic blood pressure, or reduction of at least 10 mg/dL in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol at 24 months (71.6% vs 54.7%). Meaning Among patients with diabetes and depressive symptoms in urban India, a multicomponent collaborative care intervention resulted in statistically significantly greater improvements in a composite measure of depressive symptoms and cardiometabolic indices compared with usual care