Aquatic Exposure Predictions of Insecticide Field Concentrations Using a Multimedia Mass-Balance Model

Highly complex process-driven mechanistic fate and transport models and multimedia mass balance models can be used for the exposure prediction of pesticides in different environmental compartments. Generally, both types of models differ in spatial and temporal resolution. Process-driven mechanistic fate models are very complex, and calculations are time-intensive. This type of model is currently used within the European regulatory pesticide registration (FOCUS). Multimedia mass-balance models require fewer input parameters to calculate concentration ranges and the partitioning between different environmental media. In this study, we used the fugacity-based small-region model (SRM) to calculate predicted environmental concentrations (PEC) for 466 cases of insecticide field concentrations measured in European surface waters. We were able to show that the PECs of the multimedia model are more protective in comparison to FOCUS. In addition, our results show that the multimedia model results have a higher predictive power to simulate varying field concentrations at a higher level of field relevance. The adaptation of the model scenario to actual field conditions suggests that the performance of the SRM increases when worst-case conditions are replaced by real field data. Therefore, this study shows that a less complex modeling approach than that used in the regulatory risk assessment exhibits a higher level of protectiveness and predictiveness and that there is a need to develop and evaluate new ecologically relevant scenarios in the context of pesticide exposure modeling

Fungicide Field Concentrations Exceed FOCUS Surface Water Predictions: Urgent Need of Model Improvement

FOCUS models are used in European regulatory risk assessment to predict the frequency and magnitude of individual pesticide surface water concentrations. A recent study showed that these models are not protective in the prediction of insecticide concentrations in surface waters and sediments. Since fungicides differ with regard to their physicochemical properties, application patterns, and entry routes, we compared a larger data set of 417 measured field concentrations (MFC) of agricultural fungicides in surface waters and sediments from 56 studies to the respective predicted environmental concentrations (PEC) calculated with FOCUS step 1–4. Although the fraction of the underestimation of fungicide MFC values was generally lower than that obtained for insecticides, 12% of step 3 and 23% of step 4 PECs were exceeded by surface water MFCs. Taking only the 90th percentile concentration of every substance and only E.U. studies into account (E.U. studies: <i>n</i> = 327; 90th percentile + E.U. studies: <i>n</i> = 136), a maximum of 25% of the step 3 and 43% of the step 4 PECs were exceeded by surface water MFCs, which is an even worse outcome than that obtained for insecticides. Our results demonstrate that FOCUS predictions are neither protective nor appropriate for predicting fungicide concentrations in the field in the context of European pesticide risk assessment

Regulatory FOCUS Surface Water Models Fail to Predict Insecticide Concentrations in the Field

The FOrum for the Co-ordination of pesticide fate models and their USe (FOCUS) exposure models are used to predict the frequency and magnitude of pesticide surface water concentrations within the European regulatory risk assessment. The predictions are based on realistic worst-case assumptions that result in predicted environmental concentrations (PEC). Here, we compared for the first time a larger data set of 122 measured field concentrations (MFC) of agricultural insecticides extracted from 22 field studies to respective PECs by using FOCUS steps 1–4. While FOCUS step 1 and 2 PECs generally overpredicted the MFCs, 23% of step 3 and 31% of step 4 standard PECs were exceeded by surface water MFCs, which questions the protectiveness of the FOCUS exposure assessment. Using realistic input parameters, step 3 simulations underpredicted MFCs in surface water and sediment by 43% and 78%, respectively, which indicate that a higher degree of realism even reduces the protectiveness of model results. The ratios between PEC and MFC in surface water were significantly lower for pyrethroids than for organophosphorus or organochlorine insecticides, which suggests that the FOCUS predictions are less protective for hydrophobic insecticides. In conclusion, the FOCUS modeling approach is not protective for insecticide concentrations in the field