Ericaceous vegetation of the Bale Mountains of Ethiopia will prevail in the face of climate change

Climate change impacts the structure, functioning, and distribution of species and ecosystems. It will shift ecosystem boundaries, potentially affecting vulnerable ecosystems, such as tropical Africa's high mountain ecosystems, i.e., afroalpine ecosystems, and their highly susceptible uniquely adapted species. However, ecosystems along these mountains are not expected to respond similarly to the change. The ericaceous woody vegetation, located between the low-elevation broadleaf forests and high-elevation afroalpine vegetation, are anticipated to be affected differently. We hypothesize that projected climate change will result in an upward expansion and increasing dominance of ericaceous vegetation, which will negatively impact the endemic rich afroalpine ecosystems of the extensive Sanetti plateau. Hence, we modeled the impact of future climate change on the distribution of ericaceous vegetation and discussed its effect on bordering ecosystems in the Bale Mountains. We applied four familiar correlative modeling approaches: bioclim, domain, generalized linear methods, and support vector machines. We used WorldClim’s bioclimatic variables as environmental predictors and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report climate change scenarios, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for future climate projection. The results indicate increased ericaceous vegetation cover on the midaltitude of northwestern and northern parts of the massif, and the Sanetti plateau. We observed upward range expansion and increase of close ericaceous vegetation in midaltitudes, while receding from the lower range across the massif. Moreover, the current ericaceous vegetation range correlates to the temperature and precipitation trends, reaffirming the critical role of temperature and precipitation in determining species distributions along elevational gradients. The results indicate the high likelihood of considerable changes in this biodiversity hotspot in Eastern Africa

Tuberous sclerosis complex tumor suppressor–mediated S6 kinase inhibition by phosphatidylinositide-3-OH kinase is mTOR independent

The evolution of mitogenic pathways has led to the parallel requirement for negative control mechanisms, which prevent aberrant growth and the development of cancer. Principally, such negative control mechanisms are represented by tumor suppressor genes, which normally act to constrain cell proliferation (Macleod, K. 2000. Curr. Opin. Genet. Dev. 10:81–93). Tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC) is an autosomal-dominant genetic disorder, characterized by mutations in either TSC1 or TSC2, whose gene products hamartin (TSC1) and tuberin (TSC2) constitute a putative tumor suppressor complex (TSC1-2; van Slegtenhorst, M., M. Nellist, B. Nagelkerken, J. Cheadle, R. Snell, A. van den Ouweland, A. Reuser, J. Sampson, D. Halley, and P. van der Sluijs. 1998. Hum. Mol. Genet. 7:1053–1057). Little is known with regard to the oncogenic target of TSC1-2, however recent genetic studies in Drosophila have shown that S6 kinase (S6K) is epistatically dominant to TSC1-2 (Tapon, N., N. Ito, B.J. Dickson, J.E. Treisman, and I.K. Hariharan. 2001. Cell. 105:345–355; Potter, C.J., H. Huang, and T. Xu. 2001. Cell. 105:357–368). Here we show that loss of TSC2 function in mammalian cells leads to constitutive S6K1 activation, whereas ectopic expression of TSC1-2 blocks this response. Although activation of wild-type S6K1 and cell proliferation in TSC2-deficient cells is dependent on the mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR), by using an S6K1 variant (GST-ΔC-S6K1), which is uncoupled from mTOR signaling, we demonstrate that TSC1-2 does not inhibit S6K1 via mTOR. Instead, we show by using wortmannin and dominant interfering alleles of phosphatidylinositide-3-OH kinase (PI3K) that increased S6K1 activation is contingent upon the suppression of TSC2 function by PI3K in normal cells and is PI3K independent in TSC2-deficient cells

Areas with High Hazard Potential for Autochthonous Transmission of Aedes albopictus-Associated Arboviruses in Germany

The intensity and extent of transmission of arboviruses such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus have increased markedly over the last decades. Autochthonous transmission of dengue and chikungunya by Aedes albopictus has been recorded in Southern Europe where the invasive mosquito was already established and viraemic travelers had imported the virus. Ae. albopictus populations are spreading northward into Germany. Here, we model the current and future climatically suitable regions for Ae. albopictus establishment in Germany, using climate data of spatially high resolution. To highlight areas where vectors and viraemic travellers are most likely to come into contact, reported dengue and chikungunya incidences are integrated at the county level. German cities with the highest likelihood of autochthonous transmission of Aedes albopictus-borne arboviruses are currently located in the western parts of the country: Freiburg im Breisgau, Speyer, and Karlsruhe, affecting about 0.5 million people. In addition, 8.8 million people live in regions considered to show elevated hazard potential assuming further spread of the mosquito: Baden-Württemberg (Upper Rhine, Lake Constance regions), southern parts of Hesse, and North Rhine-Westphalia (Lower Rhine). Overall, a more targeted and thus cost-efficient implementation of vector control measures and health surveillance will be supported by the detailed maps provided here.Peer Reviewe

Invasion of a Legume Ecosystem Engineer in a Cold Biome Alters Plant Biodiversity

Plant ecosystem engineers are widely used to combat land degradation. However, the ability of those plants to modulate limiting abiotic and biotic resources of other species can cause damage to ecosystems in which they become invasive. Here, we use Lupinus nootkatensis as example to estimate and project the hazardous potential of nitrogen fixing herbaceous plants in a sub-polar oceanic climate. L. nootkatensis was introduced to Iceland in the 1940s to address erosion problems and foster reforestation, but subsequently became a high-latitude invader. In a local field survey, we quantified the impact of L. nootkatensis invasion at three different cover levels (0, 10–50, and 51–100%) upon native plant diversity, richness, and community composition of heath-, wood-, and grasslands using a pairwise comparison design and comparisons of means. Afterward, we scaled impacts up to the ecosystem and landscape level by relating occurrences of L. nootkatensis to environmental and human-mediated variables across Iceland using a species distribution model. Plant diversity was significantly deteriorated under high lupine cover levels of the heath- and woodland, but not in the grassland. Plant species richness of the most diverse habitat, the heathland, linearly decreased with lupine cover level. The abundance of small rosettes, cushion plants, orchids, and small woody long-lived plants of the heath declined with invader presence, while the abundance of late successional species and widespread nitrophilous ruderals in wood- and grasslands increased. Distribution modeling revealed 13.3% of Iceland’s land surface area to be suitable lupine habitat. Until 2061–2080, this area will more than double and expand significantly into the Central Highlands due to human mediation and increasingly favorable climatic conditions. Species-rich habitats showed a loss of plant species diversity and richness as well as a change in community composition even in low lupine cover classes. The future increase of suitable lupine habitat might lead to the displacement of cold-adapted native plant species and will certainly challenge conservation as well as restoration of ecosystems in the cold climate of Iceland, but also elsewhere. Lupine invasion speeds up succession, which may be additive with climate change effects, and accelerates ecological change in cold biomes

Evaluating the risk for Usutu virus circulation in Europe : comparison of environmental niche models and epidemiological models

Abstract Background Usutu virus (USUV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus, reported in many countries of Africa and Europe, with an increasing spatial distribution and host range. Recent outbreaks leading to regional declines of European common blackbird (Turdus merula) populations and a rising number of human cases emphasize the need for increased awareness and spatial risk assessment. Methods Modelling approaches in ecology and epidemiology differ substantially in their algorithms, potentially resulting in diverging model outputs. Therefore, we implemented a parallel approach incorporating two commonly applied modelling techniques: (1) Maxent, a correlation-based environmental niche model and (2) a mechanistic epidemiological susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model. Across Europe, surveillance data of USUV-positive birds from 2003 to 2016 was acquired to train the environmental niche model and to serve as test cases for the SEIR model. The SEIR model is mainly driven by daily mean temperature and calculates the basic reproduction number R0. The environmental niche model was run with long-term bio-climatic variables derived from the same source in order to estimate climatic suitability. Results Large areas across Europe are currently suitable for USUV transmission. Both models show patterns of high risk for USUV in parts of France, in the Pannonian Basin as well as northern Italy. The environmental niche model depicts the current situation better, but with USUV still being in an invasive stage there is a chance for under-estimation of risk. Areas where transmission occurred are mostly predicted correctly by the SEIR model, but it mostly fails to resolve the temporal dynamics of USUV events. High R0 values predicted by the SEIR model in areas without evidence for real-life transmission suggest that it may tend towards over-estimation of risk. Conclusions The results from our parallel-model approach highlight that relying on a single model for assessing vector-borne disease risk may lead to incomplete conclusions. Utilizing different modelling approaches is thus crucial for risk-assessment of under-studied emerging pathogens like USUV