Predicting norovirus and rotavirus resurgence in the United States following the COVID-19 pandemic: a mathematical modelling study

Abstract Background To reduce the burden from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, federal and state local governments implemented restrictions such as limitations on gatherings, restaurant dining, and travel, and recommended non-pharmaceutical interventions including physical distancing, mask-wearing, surface disinfection, and increased hand hygiene. Resulting behavioral changes impacted other infectious diseases including enteropathogens such as norovirus and rotavirus, which had fairly regular seasonal patterns prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The study objective was to project future incidence of norovirus and rotavirus gastroenteritis as contacts resumed and other NPIs are relaxed. Methods We fitted compartmental mathematical models to pre-pandemic U.S. surveillance data (2012–2019) for norovirus and rotavirus using maximum likelihood estimation. Then, we projected incidence for 2022–2030 under scenarios where the number of contacts a person has per day varies from70%, 80%, 90%, and full resumption (100%) of pre-pandemic levels. Results We found that the population susceptibility to both viruses increased between March 2020 and November 2021. The 70–90% contact resumption scenarios led to lower incidence than observed pre-pandemic for both viruses. However, we found a greater than two-fold increase in community incidence relative to the pre-pandemic period under the 100% contact scenarios for both viruses. With rotavirus, for which population immunity is driven partially by vaccination, patterns settled into a new steady state quickly in 2022 under the 70–90% scenarios. For norovirus, for which immunity is relatively short-lasting and only acquired through infection, surged under the 100% contact scenario projection. Conclusions These results, which quantify the consequences of population susceptibility build-up, can help public health agencies prepare for potential resurgence of enteric viruses

Factors driving norovirus transmission in long-term care facilities: A case-level analysis of 107 outbreaks

Norovirus is the most common cause of gastroenteritis outbreaks in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) in the United States, causing a high burden of disease in both residents and staff. Understanding how case symptoms and characteristics contribute to norovirus transmission can lead to more informed outbreak control measures in LTCFs. We examined line lists for 107 norovirus outbreaks that took place in LTCFs in five U.S. states from 2015 to 2019. We estimated the individual effective reproduction number, Ri, to quantify individual case infectiousness and examined the contribution of vomiting, diarrhea, and being a resident (vs. staff) to case infectiousness. The associations between case characteristics and Ri were estimated using a multivariable, log-linear mixed model with inverse variance weighting. We found that cases with vomiting infected 1.28 (95 % CI: 1.11, 1.48) times the number of secondary cases compared to cases without vomiting, and LTCF residents infected 1.31 (95 % CI: 1.15, 1.50) times the number of secondary cases compared to staff. There was no difference in infectiousness between cases with and without diarrhea (1.07; 95 % CI: 0.90, 1.29). This suggests that vomiting, particularly by LTCF residents, was a primary driver of norovirus transmission. These results support control measures that limit exposure to vomitus during norovirus outbreaks in LTCFs

A ten-year retrospective evaluation of acute flaccid myelitis at 5 pediatric centers in the United States, 2005-2014.

BACKGROUND:Acute flaccid myelitis (AFM) is a severe illness similar to paralytic poliomyelitis. It is unclear how frequently AFM occurred in U.S. children after poliovirus elimination. In 2014, an AFM cluster was identified in Colorado, prompting passive US surveillance that yielded 120 AFM cases of unconfirmed etiology. Subsequently, increased reports were received in 2016 and 2018. To help inform investigations on causality of the recent AFM outbreaks, our objective was to determine how frequently AFM had occurred before 2014, and if 2014 cases had different characteristics. METHODS:We conducted a retrospective study covering 2005-2014 at 5 pediatric centers in 3 U.S. regions. Possible AFM cases aged ≤18 years were identified by searching discharge ICD-9 codes and spinal cord MRI reports (>37,000). Neuroradiologists assessed MR images, and medical charts were reviewed; possible cases were classified as AFM, not AFM, or indeterminate. RESULTS:At 5 sites combined, 26 AFM cases were identified from 2005-2013 (average annual number, 3 [2.4 cases/100,000 pediatric hospitalizations]) and 18 from 2014 (12.6 cases/100,000 hospitalizations; Poisson exact p<0.0001). A cluster of 13 cases was identified in September-October 2014 (temporal scan p = 0.0001). No other temporal or seasonal trend was observed. Compared with cases from January 2005-July 2014 (n = 29), cases from August-December 2014 (n = 15) were younger (p = 0.002), more frequently had a preceding respiratory/febrile illness (p = 0.03), had only upper extremities involved (p = 0.008), and had upper extremity monoplegia (p = 0.03). The cases had higher WBC counts in cerebrospinal fluid (p = 0.013). CONCLUSION:Our data support emergence of AFM in 2014 in the United States, and those cases demonstrated distinctive features compared with preceding sporadic cases

Census tract socioeconomic indicators and COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates-COVID-NET surveillance areas in 14 states, March 1-April 30, 2020.

ObjectivesSome studies suggested more COVID-19-associated hospitalizations among racial and ethnic minorities. To inform public health practice, the COVID-19-associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET) quantified associations between race/ethnicity, census tract socioeconomic indicators, and COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates.MethodsUsing data from COVID-NET population-based surveillance reported during March 1-April 30, 2020 along with socioeconomic and denominator data from the US Census Bureau, we calculated COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates by racial/ethnic and census tract-level socioeconomic strata.ResultsAmong 16,000 COVID-19-associated hospitalizations, 34.8% occurred among non-Hispanic White (White) persons, 36.3% among non-Hispanic Black (Black) persons, and 18.2% among Hispanic or Latino (Hispanic) persons. Age-adjusted COVID-19-associated hospitalization rate were 151.6 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 147.1-156.1) in census tracts with &gt;15.2%-83.2% of persons living below the federal poverty level (high-poverty census tracts) and 75.5 (95% CI: 72.9-78.1) in census tracts with 0%-4.9% of persons living below the federal poverty level (low-poverty census tracts). Among White, Black, and Hispanic persons living in high-poverty census tracts, age-adjusted hospitalization rates were 120.3 (95% CI: 112.3-128.2), 252.2 (95% CI: 241.4-263.0), and 341.1 (95% CI: 317.3-365.0), respectively, compared with 58.2 (95% CI: 55.4-61.1), 304.0 (95%: 282.4-325.6), and 540.3 (95% CI: 477.0-603.6), respectively, in low-poverty census tracts.ConclusionsOverall, COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates were highest in high-poverty census tracts, but rates among Black and Hispanic persons were high regardless of poverty level. Public health practitioners must ensure mitigation measures and vaccination campaigns address needs of racial/ethnic minority groups and people living in high-poverty census tracts

Hospitalizations Associated with COVID-19 Among Children and Adolescents - COVID-NET, 14 States, March 1, 2020-August 14, 2021.

Although COVID-19-associated hospitalizations and deaths have occurred more frequently in adults,† COVID-19 can also lead to severe outcomes in children and adolescents (1,2). Schools are opening for in-person learning, and many prekindergarten children are returning to early care and education programs during a time when the number of COVID-19 cases caused by the highly transmissible B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is increasing.§ Therefore, it is important to monitor indicators of severe COVID-19 among children and adolescents. This analysis uses Coronavirus Disease 2019-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET)¶ data to describe COVID-19-associated hospitalizations among U.S. children and adolescents aged 0-17 years. During March 1, 2020-August 14, 2021, the cumulative incidence of COVID-19-associated hospitalizations was 49.7 per 100,000 children and adolescents. The weekly COVID-19-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 children and adolescents during the week ending August 14, 2021 (1.4) was nearly five times the rate during the week ending June 26, 2021 (0.3); among children aged 0-4 years, the weekly hospitalization rate during the week ending August 14, 2021, was nearly 10 times that during the week ending June 26, 2021.** During June 20-July 31, 2021, the hospitalization rate among unvaccinated adolescents (aged 12-17 years) was 10.1 times higher than that among fully vaccinated adolescents. Among all hospitalized children and adolescents with COVID-19, the proportions with indicators of severe disease (such as intensive care unit [ICU] admission) after the Delta variant became predominant (June 20-July 31, 2021) were similar to those earlier in the pandemic (March 1, 2020-June 19, 2021). Implementation of preventive measures to reduce transmission and severe outcomes in children is critical, including vaccination of eligible persons, universal mask wearing in schools, recommended mask wearing by persons aged ≥2 years in other indoor public spaces and child care centers,†† and quarantining as recommended after exposure to persons with COVID-19.§§