The Impact of Corruption on Farmers' Efficiency in Rice Production: A Natural Experiment from Bangladesh

Crop Production/Industries,

Commercial energy demand forecasting in Bangladesh

Although both aggregate and per capita energy consumption in Bangladesh is increasing rapidly, its per capita consumption is still one of the lowest in the world. Bangladesh gradually shifted from petroleum-based energy to domestically sourced natural-gas-based energy sources, which are predicted to run out within next two decades. The present study first identified the determinants of aggregate commercial energy and its three major components of oil, natural gas, and coal demand for Bangladesh using a simultaneous equations framework on an annual database covering a period of 47 years (1972–2018). Next, the study forecast future demand for aggregate commercial energy and its three major components for the period of 2019–2038 under the business-as-usual and ongoing COVID-19 pandemic scenarios with some assumptions. As part of a sensitivity analysis, based on past trends, we also hypothesized four alternative GDP and population growth scenarios and forecast corresponding changes in total energy demand forecast. The results revealed that while GDP and lagged energy demand are the major drivers of energy demand in the country, we did not see strong effects of own- and cross-price elasticities of energy sources, which we attributed to three reasons: subsidized low energy prices, time and cost required to switch between different energy-mix technologies, and suppressed energy demand. The aggregate energy demand is expected to increase by 400% by the end of the forecasting period in 2038 from its existing level in 2018 under the business-as-usual scenario, whereas the effect of COVID-19 could suppress it down to 300%. Under the business-as-usual scenario, the highest increase will occur for coal (3.94-fold), followed by gas (2.64-fold) and oil (2.37-fold). The COVID-19 pandemic will suppress the future demand of all energy sources at variable rates. The ex ante forecasting errors were small, varying within the range of 3.6–3.7% of forecast values. Sensitivity analysis of changes in GDP and population growth rates showed that forecast total energy demand will increase gradually from 3.58% in 2019 to 8.79% by 2038 from original forecast values. Policy recommendations include capacity building of commercial energy sources while ensuring the safety and sustainability of newly proposed coal and nuclear power installations, removing inefficiency of production and distribution of energy and its services, shifting towards renewable and green energy sources (e.g., solar power), and redesigning subsidy policies with market-based approaches

Productivity growth and efficiency changes in prawn-carp–rice farming in ‘Gher’ system in Bangladesh: a Färe-Primont index approach

‘Gher’ farming system refers to the joint operation of three enterprises: freshwater prawn, carp and HYV rice practiced widely in the southwestern coastal Bangladesh. The paper estimates growth in total factor productivity (TFP) and its six finer components (technical change, technical, scale and mix efficiency changes, residual-scale and residual-mix efficiency changes) of the prawn-carp-rice joint culture and identifies their determinants by exploring a panel database of a cohort of 90 ‘gher’ farms over a 13-year timespan (2002–14) from southwest Bangladesh. The aim is to judge sustainability of this unique farming system. Results revealed that TFP grew @ 0.86% p.a. mainly powered by technical change @ 0.54% p.a. and mix-efficiency change @0.06% p.a. while technical and scale efficiency changes declined @ 0.17% and 0.10% p.a., respectively. Farm-level socio-economic factors exerted differential impacts on TFP growth and its components. The key conclusion is that the ‘prawn-carp-rice’ joint culture in ‘gher’ system is sustainable and has the potential to support growth of the broader agricultural sector and the Bangladesh economy. Experience and education, ‘gher’ area, share of family labour and tenancy significantly improved TFP growth and technical change. The policy interventions include additional funds in education for ‘gher’ farmers, land and tenurial reforms to consolidate operation size and training for female labourers to improve long-term growth of the ‘prawn-carp-rice’ joint farming

Climate, environment and socio-economic drivers of global agricultural productivity growth

Growth in total factor productivity (TFP) indicates the sustainable and/or judicious use of scarce resources, including non-renewables. This paper identifies sources of growth in global agricultural TFP and its finer components, ranging from climate, production environment, and socio-economic factors, using a panel data of 104 countries, covering a 45-year period (1969–2013); and, finally, projects changes in TFP from increased climate variability. The results revealed that global agricultural productivity grew consistently at a rate of 0.44% p.a., driven by technological progress and mix-efficiency change, with negligible contributions from technical- and scale-efficiency changes; albeit with variations across regions. Both long-term and short-term climatic factors and the natural production environment significantly reduce global agricultural productivity, whereas a host of socio-economic factors have a significant but varied influence. The projected increased level of future climate variability will significantly reduce future agricultural productivity. Policy implications include investments in crop diversification, education, agricultural spending, number of researchers, and country specific R&

Impact of social, institutional and environmental factors on the adoption of sustainable soil management practices: an empirical analysis from Bangladesh

This paper explores the determinants of sustainable soil management (SSM) practices among Bangladeshi paddy farmers. Relevant information from 2681 paddy farmers was extracted from the nationally representative Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (BIHS 2018–2019) dataset. Four SSM practices were commonly practiced with 37.04% of the sampled farmers adopting at least one SSM practice. ‘Use of organic fertilizer’ was the most common practice, whereas the other three, viz. ‘zero-tillage’, ‘incorporate paddy residue’, and ‘legume cultivation’ were less practiced by the farmers. Econometric analysis revealed that differences in the farmers’ socio-economic conditions, environmental and institutional settings were the main drivers of the SMM practice decisions. Climatic factors were critical in shaping the farmers’ decision to adopt SSM practices. Education, access to information and extension services increased the adoption probability of SSM practices. Improved infrastructure and being located within the economically vulnerable areas (e.g., Feed the Future zone) influenced the farmers’ adoption decision, but the magnitude and direction varied depending on the individual circumstances. The farmers’ socio-economic conditions, e.g., assets and farm size, also had a notable influence on the adoption of SSM practices. Policy implications include strengthening extension services, incorporation of climatic information in education and dissemination of information on SSM practices, particularly to farmers living in vulnerable areas

Farmers’ adaptation strategies to combat climate change in drought prone areas in Bangladesh

Drought introduces a different set of risks and adaptation strategies as compared to flood, river erosion and other natural hazards. This paper attempts to investigate farmers' adaptation strategies to combat climate change in drought prone areas and identify their determinants based on a survey of 480 farmers from northwestern Bangladesh. Farmers commonly practicing six technology-based strategies and one labour/family-based strategy with 80% adapting two or more adaptation strategies. Although synergy exists between selected strategies, competition also exist between rice- and non-rice based strategies. The likelihood of undertaking climate change adaptation strategies are significantly and positively influenced by education, subsistence pressure, income from livestock and poultry, extension services, involvement in organizations and the use of ICT in farming. Adaptation probability inversely related with increasing women participation in agricultural labour force. Recommendations include strengthening extension services and promoting use of ICT in farming, incorporation of climatic information in education, easing and facilitating farmers’ access to institutions and promotion of livestock rearing to combat climate change induced challenges on farming in drought prone areas

Exploring competitiveness of surface water versus ground water irrigation and their impacts on rice productivity and efficiency: an empirical analysis from Bangladesh

The choice of irrigation water sources is crucial in rice farming as water availability and cost can vary across water sources. Groundwater caters three-quarters of the total irrigated land in Bangladesh, where rice area alone occupies 80% of the total irrigated land. The present study compares productivity and efficiency differences and determinants of surface and groundwater irrigation users based on a sample of 6947 dry-winter rice growing plots from the nationally representative Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey-2018 database. A range of methods was adopted to correct for heterogeneity in irrigation water source choice decision, self-selection and observable biases. This involved an estimation of a Stochastic Production Frontier (SPF) model with the pooled sample first, then an application of Propensity Score Matching (PSM) to remove self-selection and observable biases, then a test of heterogeneity in irrigation source choices was conducted, and finally estimated two SPF separately for matched samples of groundwater and surface water irrigation users. Results revealed a robust effect of groundwater irrigation in enhancing rice productivity and efficiency. Seed and its quality, fertilizer and soil type are also significant drivers of rice productivity. The significant drivers of efficiency are plot ownership, irrigation frequency, subsidy and family size. Large farms with groundwater-irrigated plots are relatively more efficient. Significantly lower efficiency exists in areas vulnerable to drought. These results raise sustainability concerns owing to the high level of groundwater extraction and falling water table. Policymakers need to devise innovative strategies to increase use of surface water irrigation without sacrificing productivity and efficiency, which has been a priority policy drive in Bangladesh