The purpose of this paper is not to examine New Caledonian society or identity or the history of the (political) "events" of 1984-1989 but to contribute to an understanding of the current political situation in an archipelago which is no longer an Overseas Territory and yet not an independent state either. I question whether the three partners to the Matignon and Noumea Accords have been able to capitalise on the "bet on intelligence" - the reasoned cohabitation which they imposed upon themselves in 1988. After examining the implementation of the Matignon and Noumea Accords, I broach the subject of recent political developments in New Caledonia.AusAI